Seasonal Calculator Launch

[ravioli817]

Wasnt trying to bring anyone down to earth, you were just trying to help! Discussion like this is how we all learn so keep participating!

[dearsmiths]

Wasnt trying to bring anyone down to earth, you were just trying to help! Discussion like this is how we all learn so keep participating!

Thanks, bring me down allows me to keep participating as I do not know it all and appreciate the help .

[12squared]

OK, typically you want data to be 5% Std Deviation, or less. So this gives you a 95% confidence in the data, and less chance of volatility. So check out #15981.

dearsmiths

Standard Deviation refers to the scatter of the data around the Mean. Confidence is about the uncertainty in the Mean itself. The Margin of Error in the Mean varies depending on how "confident" we want to be about it. Because the limits set by the multiples of StdDev are related to a floating Mean, the could be lower or higher than predicted by the normal distribution curve. The Chance/Likelihood of Negative Return tables take this into account. They are best used as a relative comparison of risk, rather than as absolute odds.

[crane89]

Can anyone give a layman's explanation of the standard deviation and how i should apply it in regards to choosing a strategy? All I can seem to figure out is the lower the SD, the more confident we can be in the data/returns? is this accurate? Thanks.

[Baywatch]

Good question. I will be interested in seeing the answers.

[fordest]

Start here: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=14940

[RubberNeck]

Lookin' real hard at this. Thinking about jumping in.

[HiltonHead]

Same here.

[UberTrish]

Very tempting here too.

[Travis1984]

So just wondering...we show that today is a market holiday on TSPCalc. Yet the markets are open. With a pending move for 7980 on Thursday, should it actually be Wednesday?

[maui21ice]

So just wondering...we show that today is a market holiday on TSPCalc. Yet the markets are open. With a pending move for 7980 on Thursday, should it actually be Wednesday?

Ahhhhhhh, good catch... No idea... :/

[fordest]

The market is open, but TSP is closed. Basically all today's moves and Friday's moves are put into one "big day" and Todays IFT's along with anything after noon on Friday or during the weekend will be processed end of the day tomorrow.... consider it a weekend day with market movement.

[mmmmmbeer]

Ohhh thats a great question Trav. It's not like TSP pulls all our money out right? A gain/loss today should still count?

[fordest]

Yes. it still counts. look at it like it Friday and today are all part of one big day. We can't make any moves today. Just like we can't make any moves between 1 and 2 pm. Instead of a single day's opening price and a single day's closing price making the gain/loss.... it's Friday's opening price and Monday's closing price that makes the gain/loss.

You had to have to made your move before Friday at noon to get your effective on Tuesday.....

.

[mmmmmbeer]

Hrrmmm... maybe Wednesday is the IFT day then...

We need the S fund to burn for 3 days.. then like a phoenix from the ashes!!!