Seasonal Calculator Launch

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

What should I work on next?

IFT alerts to e-mail/SMS
55
29%
Mobile website
113
59%
Blog (with "how it works": math explained, cal days vs trading days, etc.)
24
13%
 
Total votes: 192

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Aitrus
Moderator
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Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by Aitrus »

mmmmmbeer wrote:So take a look at #7980:

AVG: 35.59
CAGR: 34.64
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 58.00

A Mean of 35.59% with a Standard Deviation of only 16.68!

7980.jpg


Hmm...good information, guys! I might have to add standard deviations to my Seasonal Musings intro posts. Good info to have for those that are statistically-minded.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by evilanne »

mmmmmbeer wrote:So take a look at #7980:

AVG: 35.59
CAGR: 34.64
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 58.00

A Mean of 35.59% with a Standard Deviation of only 16.68!

Woooowww... I know its 2% off the leader but look at those yearly returns. All so strong with no huge swings. Such a nice even deviation.

And only a market exposure of 58%? Whew.. this one is really tempting to follow for awhile.
Interesting. So which one are you going to follow? Decisions, Decisions!

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7980 ... -mjedlin66

Midway
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by Midway »

7980 gains an advantage when the timeline is changed to 2011-2017.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by mmmmmbeer »

evilanne wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:So take a look at #7980:

AVG: 35.59
CAGR: 34.64
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 58.00

A Mean of 35.59% with a Standard Deviation of only 16.68!

Woooowww... I know its 2% off the leader but look at those yearly returns. All so strong with no huge swings. Such a nice even deviation.

And only a market exposure of 58%? Whew.. this one is really tempting to follow for awhile.
Interesting. So which one are you going to follow? Decisions, Decisions!

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7980 ... -mjedlin66


Well it uses the same August as almost all the top mixes, so I don't have to decide for at least this month, but I am seriously leaning towards this one.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by nrialto »

I know one thing: they're ALL better than what I could do on my own.

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pokiemon
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:33 am

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by pokiemon »

SurelyJame wrote:
TSP Calc 6465.jpg


What's up with strategy 6465?


It doesn't look like it's completely filled out.

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=6465&years=04-17&benchmarks=G-F-C-S-I-mjedlin66

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by evilanne »

You have to fill it in or select a #strategy.
That one has no data and shows -100 in return...not one you want to be following :lol:

djmargel
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:15 am

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by djmargel »

I love the new look and pleased to see a donation button is added. Thank you so much for putting together such a multitude of useful information on your website. Well done.

ksmoly04
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by ksmoly04 »

So I guess the question that I have is how many people are following a daily seasonal (whichever it may be) in their real TSP accounts? Might be worth a poll. I know I'm considering making the switch to it for the upcoming IFT this week.
Daily Seasonal Since: August 23, 2017
Current Strategy: 16198 / 7.21σ

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by mmmmmbeer »

ksmoly04 wrote:So I guess the question that I have is how many people are following a daily seasonal (whichever it may be) in their real TSP accounts? Might be worth a poll. I know I'm considering making the switch to it for the upcoming IFT this week.


Alrighty.. poll up.

Looks like it's pretty possible the S fund has another down day. Great for us.... uuhh.. maybe. Cause it's like.. hopefully the darkest just before the dawn. I'm going to make the IFT to the S on schedule on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. Here's to hoping the daily seadonal is true to form this year!
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

ravioli817
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:13 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by ravioli817 »

I think i may have found a bug. the results section shows different numbers for the same strategy if you add it as a benchmark strategy. you can see this if you add the same strategy you are looking at as a benchmark and the number will be different.

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mjedlin66
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Posts: 1569
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Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by mjedlin66 »

ravioli817 wrote:I think i may have found a bug. the results section shows different numbers for the same strategy if you add it as a benchmark strategy. you can see this if you add the same strategy you are looking at as a benchmark and the number will be different.


Correct. That is on the fix list.

In November 2006, the TSP published a share price on the "in-lieu-of" veteran's day (Friday). Since the TSP has never posted a price on veteran's day other than 2006, the new calculator treats all veteran's days as a non-trading day, including 2006. So the differences you are seeing is a one-day difference.

I will figure out why the benchmark is using the old method of calculating trading days when I am back from vacation next week.
Last edited by mjedlin66 on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

ravioli817
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:13 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by ravioli817 »

ok, excellent work btw. Really like the new look and the new metrics

mindofmush
Posts: 353
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:38 pm

Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by mindofmush »

Thanks for those examples on using the filters for the seasonal strategies; I finally figured out how to use it and I'm having lots of fun.

Great system!!!
...now I need to figure out how to print out the calendar pages.
mo meng, mo ching (which loosely means: no money, no life)

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mjedlin66
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Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch

Post by mjedlin66 »

New poll to help steer development.

For the coming IFT alert messages, do you prefer e-mail or SMS?
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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