TSP Center

So tonight I was able to get everything working correctly!

Here it is: http://tspcalc.com

You can copy and paste the URL from your results page here to show your strategy to others. If you get an error or something doesn't work quite right, please take a screenshot and send it to mjedlin66@gmail.com.

Now for the fun part-

In celebration of the launch, I have decided to have a contest. The user who comes up with the highest Total Compound Return for year range 2010-2016 by the end of May is the winner. Post your link here with your Total Compound Return for entry.

Japan has several Kit Kat flavors that are not available in America. For example, they have Green Tea flavored Kit Kats and Sake flavored Kit Kats. I will mail a couple of kitkats to the winner.

Have fun!

mjedlin66 strategy 2010-2016: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=95
jahbulon strategy 2010-2016: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=96
TSPcenter strategy 2010-2016: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=97

Booyah!

Sweet! Thank you!

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=585
I love this site. I wish I would have been more involved with my tsp when I started federal work 3 years ago. I spent 2+ years in the G fund not really knowing any better/not having anybody to teach me any better. Thanks for all the awesome advice and helping a rookie out.

Excellent Matt!

When did you start following your method?

evilanne wrote:Excellent Matt!

When did you start following your method?

I calculated it at the end of 2015 and started it January 1st 2016. So far, it hasn't made me any money that I couldn't have made by staying 100% S.

I am skeptical of the daily strategy. I am going to continue to use it. But if you look at it on the chart, it has something like a 3000% gain in 12 years. The numbers are right, but there's no way that will happen going forward. There are 40-80% gains in some years and 10% in others. I think that the strategy, being built off of simple averaging, is more heavily weighted to the more volatile years. I am thinking about normalizing each year to reduce price swings in volatile years and running the calculation again. Basically 2008-2012 would be multiplied by some factor to make them weighted less in the result, say 0.7 or 0.8. Ideally that would spit out a strategy with consistent 20-30% returns.

According to the calculator your method shows 10.67% but your TSP Fantasy shows 21.62% (Jahbulon Mix) for 2016. Currently it appears you are doing better than Jahbulon if you are actually using your mix in the fantasy TSP. Your method did way better in 2004 through 2012, including 2008. Just keep thinking of the standard prospectus statement that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Are you planning on adding any of the other mixes for comparison purposes?

jones44 is in the lead with 631.30%.

Just look at all these kit-kat flavors:
https://www.japancentre.com/en/categories/1709-kitkat

evilanne wrote:According to the calculator your method shows 10.67% but your TSP Fantasy shows 21.62% (Jahbulon Mix) for 2016. Currently it appears you are doing better than Jahbulon if you are actually using your mix in the fantasy TSP. Your method did way better in 2004 through 2012, including 2008. Just keep thinking of the standard prospectus statement that past performance in no guarantee of future results.

Are you planning on adding any of the other mixes for comparison purposes?

My FantasyTSP is way off for 2016. It is somewhat close to strategy for 2017.

What else would you like?

mjedlin66 wrote:Starting Fund, 1st IFT Fund:trading day, 2nd IFT Fund:trading day, 3rd IFT trading day (G only)

JAN- I, F:1, S:14
FEB- S, I:9, F:13, G:19
MAR- G, S:6
APR- S, F:3, I:6
MAY- I, F:2, S:14, G:21
JUN- G, S:9, G:12
JUL- G, C:1, I:12
AUG- I, F:1, S:17
SEP- S, F:11, C:18, G:21
OCT- G, S:8
NOV- S, F:4, S:13
DEC- S, I:15

For example, F:2 means put in your IFT before noon on the 2nd trading day of the month, so that you buy F at COB (close of business) on the 2nd trading day. If the G trading day doesn't exist in the month of interest, then execute it on the last trading day of that month

I put what I thought were your moves into the calculator and it comes up slightly different than your mix. Am I doing something wrong?
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=646&benchmarks[]=mjedlin66&benchmarks[]=jahbulon
part that doesn't come up in link, marked mjedlin66 & jahbulon on bottom before hitting "submit"

It is really fun to play with

The online calculator disagreed with the excel sheet and I had to determine which was right. The online calculator was right. Turns out the October IFT should be S on the 7th day, and I mis-reported it. Also, there are some small errors in the spreadsheet in 2015, 2016, and one other year that I don't recall. I have to fix that all and then I will correct the Daily Seasonal thread. I am 95% positive that the errors are in the spreadsheet.

Got it. Now it matches up perfectly

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=681&benchmarks[]=mjedlin66

I changed the way that the benchmarks are encoded in the URL. Now it shouldn't break when you paste it into the forum.

Of course it's blocked here at work!! Really curious to check this out at home.