What is the market going to do?
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: What is the market going to do?
I follow the season, but for some reason I moved to G today. Call it a hunch or just a bad move, but I agree we are set for a pull back for a few days or a week of up and down movement. I will be on vacation starting Wed - the next Wed so this is just an easy way to not look at it or wonder what is happening. Good me we shall see! I try for 1% per month and will have reached that goal by end of trading day today hopefully. If not have a week to get back in.
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Re: What is the market going to do?
I've started following the daily seasonal - which put me into the "C" fund on the first trading day of July. The next move says to go to the "I" on Wednesday, but I'm going to try to beat the crowd into the "I" and catch the run up when the masses move on Wednesday. It's been a great run in the "C", so pulling out now and locking in those gains feels good.... This next 10 days or so in the "I" looks to be the last chance at makes some gains before the move to the "F" on the first day of August - where the daily seasonal says to park it for most of next month... Good luck everyone...
Re: What is the market going to do?
alligatorm wrote:I'm going to try to beat the crowd into the "I" and catch the run up when the masses move on Wednesday....
Does the TSP work that way? If there are mass moves to a fund C,S, or I does the per share price of that fund rise?
- jlozano042
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- Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm
Re: What is the market going to do?
alligatorm wrote:I've started following the daily seasonal - which put me into the "C" fund on the first trading day of July. The next move says to go to the "I" on Wednesday, but I'm going to try to beat the crowd into the "I" and catch the run up when the masses move on Wednesday. It's been a great run in the "C", so pulling out now and locking in those gains feels good.... This next 10 days or so in the "I" looks to be the last chance at makes some gains before the move to the "F" on the first day of August - where the daily seasonal says to park it for most of next month... Good luck everyone...
Question for you Alligatorm or anyone who can answer. When we say "... pulling out now and locking in those gains ..." how are we doing that exactly? My initial thought was, any gains acquired you simply move them (the gains) over into G. Thank you!
Re: What is the market going to do?
If you pull out of C and move to G you have then protected your gains as G will not lose money, but if you move to I you have not really protected those gains as the market could drop tomorrow and you have lost everything you made. I moved to G yesterday and hanging there till Friday then back in till the end of the month. Not sure why seasonal say to stay in C I just think it is in for a rough ride the next few days.
- Scarfinger
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Re: What is the market going to do?
bad70nova wrote: Not sure why seasonal say to stay in C I just think it is in for a rough ride the next few days.
Seasonal takes the guessing out of it and is based on 10+ years of past data.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation ofTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Re: What is the market going to do?
You are correct and I usually follow it, just not sure for the rest of the month may lose out, but willing to take that chance. we will see come Monday when I am back in if getting out these 4 days was a good or bad move.
- jlozano042
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- Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm
Re: What is the market going to do?
Thank you for the response bad70nova!
Re: What is the market going to do?
jlozano042 wrote:alligatorm wrote:I've started following the daily seasonal - which put me into the "C" fund on the first trading day of July. The next move says to go to the "I" on Wednesday, but I'm going to try to beat the crowd into the "I" and catch the run up when the masses move on Wednesday. It's been a great run in the "C", so pulling out now and locking in those gains feels good.... This next 10 days or so in the "I" looks to be the last chance at makes some gains before the move to the "F" on the first day of August - where the daily seasonal says to park it for most of next month... Good luck everyone...
Question for you Alligatorm or anyone who can answer. When we say "... pulling out now and locking in those gains ..." how are we doing that exactly? My initial thought was, any gains acquired you simply move them (the gains) over into G. Thank you!
"locking in" is getting off the coaster before it heads downward.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: What is the market going to do?
Given the current interest rates being as low as they are, I don't think the market is that much over-valued. Think of it this way....where else are people going to put there money to get any kind of decent return? You can get a whopping 1% int on cash down at your local bank...tsp g fund is paying ~ 2.2% right now. To me its a no brainer. Could the market take a big hit? Sure it can but I think it would come right back.
So where are int rates going? There is certainly upward pressure in regard to rates. If they rise significantly then, imo, the market does become overvalued and a bounce back from a major correction may take a while.
But don't forget that this country is 20 trillion in debt and if the fed gets too aggressive with raising rates then the int on that debt goes up as well. They basically slit there own throats. BTW...that upward pressure is terrible for the f-fund. Inflation will be a key indicator because that will basically drive rates up regardless of what the fed really wants to do. But so far, it continues to be held in check.
Guess I'm just bullish...but as population increases then so should corporation growth and in turn, the c and s funds. Add to that a low int rate and the potential for a corp tax rate cut...outlook looks good to me.
So where are int rates going? There is certainly upward pressure in regard to rates. If they rise significantly then, imo, the market does become overvalued and a bounce back from a major correction may take a while.
But don't forget that this country is 20 trillion in debt and if the fed gets too aggressive with raising rates then the int on that debt goes up as well. They basically slit there own throats. BTW...that upward pressure is terrible for the f-fund. Inflation will be a key indicator because that will basically drive rates up regardless of what the fed really wants to do. But so far, it continues to be held in check.
Guess I'm just bullish...but as population increases then so should corporation growth and in turn, the c and s funds. Add to that a low int rate and the potential for a corp tax rate cut...outlook looks good to me.
Re: What is the market going to do?
Bullish is good.
- bluedragon
- Posts: 12
- Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:25 am
Re: What is the market going to do?
Let the bulls run.
Re: What is the market going to do?
I would like to get thoughts on if you all think the market is going to continue to rise or fall, when and why. the "experts" are all over the place. Some are doom and gloom, some are saying everything is roses. I don't know what to think. I a little skittish because it is at an all time high and has been a bull market for 6 years now. One would think that it has got to make a correction sooner than latter, right?
In terms of market valuations, this one is comparable to the extremes of 1929 and 2000. A lot of traditional market wisdom and historical measures are not working. Yes experts are all over the place.
You should be skittish. Buy and hold looks great at market peaks, especially one of the highest peaks ever.
On low interest rates... They partially explain the higher values of the stock market, but low interest rates and high market valuations come with... low future returns.
What is different about this market cycle are the central bank's interventions into the financial markets.
Central banks are buying bonds and stocks (Japan openly admits to buying stocks) and removing supply from the markets. Central banks stepping in when the markets falter emboldens risk taking by speculators.
If the central banks are willing (and politically able) to continue to prop the markets up, there may not be a large rapid bear market. We may see a series of corrections and central bank saves. We have already seen two major saves - 2011 and 2016. This does not change the likelihood that long term returns for a buy and hold investor are going to be dismal going forward.
So my opinion on "what is the market going to do" in the short term depends on *expectations* of what the central banks are going to do.
In the long term, there is going to be another crisis. You just can not back out of a situation like this without damage somewhere.
I posted some charts in my latest post to make some of the above points. See Into Thin Air
If nothing else, the take away is don't buy and hope.
Cheers,
Re: What is the market going to do?
Interesting TSPsmart. In the event of a crisis, do you think US or European markets wil be hit first?
Yellen has been pretty wishy-washy lately:
EU (Italy) almost had a major crisis last month, bailing out/reorganizing 2 Italian banks http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/822 ... d-EU#t=29s
Yellen has been pretty wishy-washy lately:
At present, I see roughly equal odds that the U.S. economy's performance will be somewhat stronger or somewhat less strong than we currently project. http://www.barrons.com/articles/rates-f ... 1499863913
EU (Italy) almost had a major crisis last month, bailing out/reorganizing 2 Italian banks http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/822 ... d-EU#t=29s
Re: What is the market going to do?
I think we will see an upswing nest week.
Fund Prices2024-03-28
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.15 | 0.05% | 1.05% |
F | $19.08 | -0.06% | -0.74% |
C | $82.21 | 0.11% | 10.55% |
S | $82.43 | 0.30% | 6.92% |
I | $42.57 | -0.24% | 5.95% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.02% | 8.37% |
L2060 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.01% | 6.95% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.02% | 6.58% |
L2040 | $54.38 | 0.02% | 6.22% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.02% | 5.79% |
L2030 | $47.67 | 0.02% | 5.38% |
L2025 | $13.15 | 0.03% | 3.43% |
Linc | $25.61 | 0.03% | 2.82% |