What is the market going to do?
Moderator: Aitrus
What is the market going to do?
I would like to get thoughts on if you all think the market is going to continue to rise or fall, when and why. the "experts" are all over the place. Some are doom and gloom, some are saying everything is roses. I don't know what to think. I a little skittish because it is at an all time high and has been a bull market for 6 years now. One would think that it has got to make a correction sooner than latter, right?
Re: What is the market going to do?
People have called for a correction for a few years now. Things are always doom and gloom to some, and roses to others. The market seems overvalued, but we are now starting to see interest rates go up. So does the market. I think the real issue for investors is where to stash cash. Bonds had a very long bull run because they started out high, and as interest rates dropped they went up in value. Now the inverse is true. The world seems like a risky place, so stocks in established markets is where most cash is heading it seems. That is my guess.
Re: What is the market going to do?
Simply put, nobody knows.
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Re: What is the market going to do?
it's going to definitely.. do something.
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Seasonal Strategies:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 205#p53743
Yes, death is coming...but then again, it's always coming.
-Aitrus
Re: What is the market going to do?
ron.logan wrote: One would think that it has got to make a correction sooner than latter, right?
Why?
The experts aren't all over the place. I have yet to see one fund manager come on TV and say they think the market is cheap. Tops are caused by over exuberance, I don't see that if the endless talking heads on CNBC and MSNBC are overwhelmingly negative.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar
Re: What is the market going to do?
ron.logan wrote:I would like to get thoughts on if you all think the market is going to continue to rise or fall, when and why. the "experts" are all over the place. Some are doom and gloom, some are saying everything is roses. I don't know what to think. I a little skittish because it is at an all time high and has been a bull market for 6 years now. One would think that it has got to make a correction sooner than latter, right?
Yep. Paul over at tspallocation.com routinely predicts that the market will experience at least two or three 5+% corrections, and probably one 10+% correction, every year. That's just how the market works.
The problem is that nobody knows when it will happen. We could see one tomorrow, or it might not happen for a few weeks, or even a few months. I've learned that it's best to just stick to a strategy that makes sense to you and lets you sleep at night.
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Re: What is the market going to do?
Leaning toward the "buy and hold" philosophy, if you have a time horizon greater than 5-10 years, get in early and stay in.
Re: What is the market going to do?
Buy and hold really is an excellent strategy.
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Re: What is the market going to do?
Not a good day so far. Is this just a dip or a correction or a start of a crash? Anyone got a crystal ball?
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Re: What is the market going to do?
For what it's worth, one writer in the WSJ thinks a drop of 5% below what we are getting today.
See https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-far-ca ... 34?tesla=y
It's one of the few non-pay articles and was on the front page until the Special Counsel story broke.
See https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-far-ca ... 34?tesla=y
It's one of the few non-pay articles and was on the front page until the Special Counsel story broke.
Re: What is the market going to do?
Subject seems to be the question of the day?
Re: What is the market going to do?
If you have over 15-20 years until retirement....this post should not really apply to you. Why bother guessing what the market is going to do when you need growth? You certainly are not going to get any real growth in the g fund. Stick to c,s, and I if over 20 yrs to go regardless....and don't let yourself get spooked...you have a long way to go....the market will come back if it falls.
Less than 15 years....This post is definitely more applicable. It sure is hard to guess what its going to do though. I like the 5% rule.....which is # of years until retirement X 5%. This is how much you should put in stocks....put the rest in G and F 3:1 ratio.
Less than 15 years....This post is definitely more applicable. It sure is hard to guess what its going to do though. I like the 5% rule.....which is # of years until retirement X 5%. This is how much you should put in stocks....put the rest in G and F 3:1 ratio.
Re: What is the market going to do?
60minman wrote:If you have over 15-20 years until retirement....this post should not really apply to you. Why bother guessing what the market is going to do when you need growth? You certainly are not going to get any real growth in the g fund. Stick to c,s, and I if over 20 yrs to go regardless....and don't let yourself get spooked...you have a long way to go....the market will come back if it falls.
Less than 15 years....This post is definitely more applicable. It sure is hard to guess what its going to do though. I like the 5% rule.....which is # of years until retirement X 5%. This is how much you should put in stocks....put the rest in G and F 3:1 ratio.
Yeah I just don't about that. In looking at every market trend, it get's hammered and comes back. Even if I'm close to retirement, so? Unless I'm going to but an annuity with the whole thing (no way), I don't need it all at once. I can just keep doing my seasonal or whatever and ride out the storm.
Say the week before I retire I lose a pile of my tsp. So? We're set for it all to come back in a big way then arn't we? Look at what the market did in 2008... then the 3 years after. Same in 2012....
My point is, unless are withdrawing it all for some reason, logically there is no reason to hide it all away in the G.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: What is the market going to do?
60minman,
Welcome to the forum.
I think that is probably too conservative as you would only have 5% in stocks 1 year away from retirement and you want your investments to continue to grow in retirement which will likely be for 20+ years for most. When people talk about asset allocation between stocks & bonds, most recommend stock allocation of at least 60% into retirement. Some also say if you have a pension, that your stock allocation should be higher since you have guaranteed flow of income.
Have you looked Seasonal Musings 2017: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214&p=53759#p53759 ? If not recommend you look at 1st few pages. There is a wealth of information in the forum, many different views on investing...just keep looking around & posting.
Welcome to the forum.
I think that is probably too conservative as you would only have 5% in stocks 1 year away from retirement and you want your investments to continue to grow in retirement which will likely be for 20+ years for most. When people talk about asset allocation between stocks & bonds, most recommend stock allocation of at least 60% into retirement. Some also say if you have a pension, that your stock allocation should be higher since you have guaranteed flow of income.
Have you looked Seasonal Musings 2017: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214&p=53759#p53759 ? If not recommend you look at 1st few pages. There is a wealth of information in the forum, many different views on investing...just keep looking around & posting.
Re: What is the market going to do?
Need a crystal ball.... be careful though. Been following the market for many years and it sure does SEEM overbought (personal opinion)
Fund Prices2024-04-18
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.27% |
F | $18.62 | -0.30% | -3.14% |
C | $78.45 | -0.21% | 5.50% |
S | $76.12 | -0.20% | -1.27% |
I | $40.67 | 0.02% | 1.21% |
L2065 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
L2060 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
L2055 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
L2050 | $31.35 | -0.13% | 2.44% |
L2045 | $14.32 | -0.12% | 2.35% |
L2040 | $52.37 | -0.11% | 2.29% |
L2035 | $13.85 | -0.10% | 2.21% |
L2030 | $46.21 | -0.09% | 2.15% |
L2025 | $12.93 | -0.05% | 1.72% |
Linc | $25.28 | -0.04% | 1.51% |