Has the bubble burst?

General TSP Discussion.

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outlaw58d
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu May 12, 2016 6:59 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by outlaw58d »

The emotional reaction to media hype. I have a coworker who is still upset about Trump being elected and has protested by parking his funds in the G since November. His emotions have cost a lot of gains. He was gloating about his strategy on Tuesday... missing out on 12% gain to be right when there's a 2% correction seems silly in hindsight.

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Jokerswild
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:58 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Jokerswild »

outlaw58d wrote:The emotional reaction to media hype. I have a coworker who is still upset about Trump being elected and has protested by parking his funds in the G since November. His emotions have cost a lot of gains. He was gloating about his strategy on Tuesday... missing out on 12% gain to be right when there's a 2% correction seems silly in hindsight.


Yes, go anti Trump and park your money in the U.S treasury....... If I was anti-Trump, I'd have placed my money in the I fund and been on the top of the TSP leader boards :lol:
Shawn AKA "Joker"

"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Prices trend, however, they don’t do it forever and as the balance of power shifts between bulls and bears, a new stance must be taken. This "transitional" period is when the most difficult decisions are made, and there will be the most mistakes. Almost no one believes the trend changed when it starts.

And as far as news events, I call them the “why” after the fact. The “what” (price action) is more important than the “why”. It will drive you nuts trying to interpret which news events are important to the markets, and which are not.


Image

http://schrts.co/XSNeAx
Last edited by Tomanyiron on Tue May 23, 2017 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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RGEN
Posts: 228
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:12 am

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by RGEN »

Great chart To Many. Get's us back on topic. Time to stay in G.
RGEN

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WildBill
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:06 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by WildBill »

There is no bubble.

Peaty
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Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:39 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Peaty »

Agree WildBill.

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frankwhite
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 3:28 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by frankwhite »

WildBill wrote:There is no bubble.


Bump^
-My fantasy account mirrors my real TSP account-

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Asiana
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:28 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Asiana »

WildBill wrote:There is no bubble.


Warren Buffett Says no bubble.

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FlyIFR
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:14 am

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by FlyIFR »

Far from bubble territory. Relax.
If you can walk away from a landing, it’s a good landing. If you use the airplane the next day, it’s an outstanding landing. – Chuck Yeager, USAF

CajunJoe
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:45 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by CajunJoe »

Agree.

Heat
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Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:36 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Heat »

What bubble?

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Tomanyiron
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Heat wrote:What bubble

I think when it ends it will be called the ‘Trump Bubble'.
Some were saying it was already a bubble near the end of the Obama administration. Trump the candidate called it a bubble when he was campaigning. People criticized the Fed, saying they were making a bubble.

I speak as someone who tried to outsource my decision making to the news for years and failed. So I don't care if it is or is not a bubble. I only care what price is today compared to yesterday, and that compared to the day before, and the day before that, and on and on and on...

Thank goodness for the free G.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

JudgeTina
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:46 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by JudgeTina »

I don't think we're anywhere near bubble territory. But to each his own.

ValleyGirl
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Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:13 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by ValleyGirl »

Agree.

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Has the bubble burst?

Post by Aitrus »

Agreed. We're not on a bubble. And Paul over at TSPAllocation agrees. See this post from late March. The Yield Spread chart is particularly telling as to our current chances of a recession. Nothing much has changed since then.

http://www.tspallocation.com/march-2017-tsp-allocation-business-cycle-analysis/
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".