"Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal strategi

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
ksmoly04
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:08 pm

"Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal strategi

Post by ksmoly04 »

Reference article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/invest ... 2017-07-19

Okay, so aside from the MW doom and gloom, this got me to thinking. How would/should we modify a seasonal strategy for the subject conditions if they were to occur? So assuming that the larger correction takes place in January 2018, how would one adapt?

Note: this thread is meant as a education/strategy discussion and not a debate over the merits of the underlying method (Elliot wave).
Daily Seasonal Since: August 23, 2017
Current Strategy: 16198 / 7.21σ

GUTK
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:42 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by GUTK »

The old buy the dip strategy may work. That's what I have been waiting for, I haven't seen a good old dip in awhile. But of course you must be very careful not to get caught up in a major downturn. Just a thought

User avatar
Aitrus
Moderator
Posts: 2391
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by Aitrus »

ksmoly04 wrote:Reference article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/invest ... 2017-07-19

Okay, so aside from the MW doom and gloom, this got me to thinking. How would/should we modify a seasonal strategy for the subject conditions if they were to occur? So assuming that the larger correction takes place in January 2018, how would one adapt?

Note: this thread is meant as a education/strategy discussion and not a debate over the merits of the underlying method (Elliot wave).


All of the best performing Mixes have the F Fund for January already, so I don't know that much change is needed. Unless you're talking about the daily seasonal.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by mmmmmbeer »

You wouldn't, you'd ride the return wave back up, using the tried and true seasonal mixes. Look at 2008.. and the following years.. 2012.. same..

The seasonal mixes show huge gains the years following a correction.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

wdd09
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:29 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by wdd09 »

A seasonal strategy doesn't care where the market is at ANY point. You never makes moves on emotion so you, as a seasonal investor, shouldn't care where the market is at.

However, and I say this based on what I am doing in regards to seasonal investing, if there is ever a 15/20% dip in the market (and I happen to be out of the market based on my seasonal strategy) I plan on buying the large dip and then resuming a seasonal strategy the following month. That's the only reason I would (for a very brief moment) leave a seasonal strategy. My views are long term and with the proven effectiveness of buy and hold, I would definitely want to increase my exposure to the market after a dip (odds are good there will be a bounce after a dip like that). My brief ramblings.
I follow a monthly seasonal strategy from gclapper (slightly modified). Its moves can be found by searching for strategy number #25727 on http://www.tspcalc.com

GUTK
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:42 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by GUTK »

Sound advice

User avatar
mjedlin66
Site Admin
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by mjedlin66 »

Aitrus wrote:
ksmoly04 wrote:Reference article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/invest ... 2017-07-19

Okay, so aside from the MW doom and gloom, this got me to thinking. How would/should we modify a seasonal strategy for the subject conditions if they were to occur? So assuming that the larger correction takes place in January 2018, how would one adapt?

Note: this thread is meant as a education/strategy discussion and not a debate over the merits of the underlying method (Elliot wave).


All of the best performing Mixes have the F Fund for January already, so I don't know that much change is needed. Unless you're talking about the daily seasonal.


F fund for 2.5 weeks in January. Mjedlin66 and the current 2004-2017 leader agree.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

User avatar
Jokerswild
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:58 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by Jokerswild »

We know a correction is bound to occur in the near future, but exactly when is subjective. If that should occur, I'm sure many of us here will lose some gains trying to protect our investments, but we will be sitting there in the G fund anxiously looking for the signal to jump back in and ride the wave back up to new highs. Just pay attention to the markets and look for the panic overall trend, secure low risk funds until the storm passes, then strike like a honey badger
Shawn AKA "Joker"

"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen

User avatar
MtnBiker
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:09 am

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by MtnBiker »

Better yet, take the hit and stay strong. The upswing is going to be worth the patience.

User avatar
Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by Scarfinger »

ksmoly04 wrote: How would/should we modify a seasonal strategy for the subject conditions if they were to occur?


You don't modify a seasonal strategy. Stick to the seasonal strategy so that the averages are on your side.

The seasonal strategy is suppose to take all the thinking and emotion out of it... Once you start thinking, to much, your seasonal strategy probably isn't going to work as well.

My advice if you want to think about it more.... is maybe make a move early and or late. For example next month is a move to F for most TSP seasonal strategies. If you think doom and gloom is around the corner... move a little early.

But honestly, you should make this "early" move based on something factual. Like chart patterns or indicators.

That's my 2 cents... good luck!
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

Ohura
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:45 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by Ohura »

Good advice.

Vesper
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:30 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by Vesper »

Lots of data behind the seasonals.

User avatar
BR549
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:39 pm

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by BR549 »

Yep er. To modify a seasonal kind of defeats the purpose.
Folks I don't mind tellin' you I made a bundle pushin' used cars. - Junior Samples

TheProfit
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:28 am

Re: "Lost Year" Ahead? How would we modify our seasonal stra

Post by TheProfit »

Agree.

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".