June - The Next IFT
Moderator: Aitrus
- ObamaSucks
- Posts: 23
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:00 am
June - The Next IFT
Most of the seasonal plans go to the F-fund in June. With the S&P 500 looking at a potential breakout, what's everyone's plans?
I will bleed on the American flag to make sure those stripes stay red.- Brassel, MI3
Re: June - The Next IFT
You might be right. I may stay with C for a while.
Re: June - The Next IFT
Staying put in the I fund for now.
Re: June - The Next IFT
I keep hearing 'positive signs'. I'm thinking C&S.
- Snapdragon
- Posts: 251
- Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm
Re: June - The Next IFT
I'm waiting for a dip in S, C and I. Should be soon. There is a reason seasonal is F and we are hitting highs on the markets
Re: June - The Next IFT
I just heard on CNBC that the top 15 stocks in the S & P 500 are accounting for all the gains in the average. If someone can verify this, market breadth is not good. I am staying in the I fund for a while. Think gains from Europe will be better this summer. My two cents worth.
- Jokerswild
- Posts: 115
- Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:58 pm
Re: June - The Next IFT
Historically looking back many years, if you plan to stick with a core fund through June, the majority end in negative territory except G or F. The majority of seasonal strategies say to go to G or F which takes away the "emotional" trading that tends to not outperform playing on highs and lows. The S and C are reaching highs BUT historically near the end of June they tank so a safer bet may be with sticking with the seasonal suggestion of F or G. The I fund is really hard to predict IMO, because looking back years it's performance has never been as strong as it has been this year BUT that doesn't mean it will continue upwards forever through the summer. I would stick with historical data showing a move to a safer fund so you don't get caught up in a major swing if timing is incorrect and confidently come back into the stock market funds when the data supports a more confident buy in. Just my .02
Shawn AKA "Joker"
"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen
"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen
Re: June - The Next IFT
Staying with the seasonal plan. Most of the time in the past, when I made an emotional or "intuitive move" I usually ended up losing. The only time I gained was merely luck of happenstance. I learned my lesson "I'm no good at trying to time the market". Seasonal is best for me.
Re: June - The Next IFT
I just ran a quick comparison of staying in C for June and July, vs F in June and C in July. Here's what I found:
C both months: CAGR 0.84%, PNR 69% (20 of 29 years were positive)
C both months: total return is 28.42% since 1988.
F, then C: CAGR 1.74%, PNR 66% (19 of 29 years were positive)
F, then C: total return is 53.06% since 1988.
"F, then C" outperforms "C both months" 18 out of 29 years, or 62% of the time.
"F, then C" has a higher cumulative return of 24.64% since 1988.
For the same ballpark PNR you get double the CAGR by going F in June. The years that "F, then C" did worse than "C both months" were:
1988: worse by -2.11%
1995: -1.6%
1997: -3.27%
1998: -3.2%
1999: -5.87%
2000: -0.37%
2003: -1.5%
2004: -1.26%
2012: -4.08%
2013: -0.19%
2014: -1.93%
Best years that "F, then C" outperformed "C both months":
2008: better by 8.33%
2002: 8.07%
2010: 6.8%
It may not always work, but I like the odds and the long term results of going F in June.
C both months: CAGR 0.84%, PNR 69% (20 of 29 years were positive)
C both months: total return is 28.42% since 1988.
F, then C: CAGR 1.74%, PNR 66% (19 of 29 years were positive)
F, then C: total return is 53.06% since 1988.
"F, then C" outperforms "C both months" 18 out of 29 years, or 62% of the time.
"F, then C" has a higher cumulative return of 24.64% since 1988.
For the same ballpark PNR you get double the CAGR by going F in June. The years that "F, then C" did worse than "C both months" were:
1988: worse by -2.11%
1995: -1.6%
1997: -3.27%
1998: -3.2%
1999: -5.87%
2000: -0.37%
2003: -1.5%
2004: -1.26%
2012: -4.08%
2013: -0.19%
2014: -1.93%
Best years that "F, then C" outperformed "C both months":
2008: better by 8.33%
2002: 8.07%
2010: 6.8%
It may not always work, but I like the odds and the long term results of going F in June.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Re: June - The Next IFT
I think this is another golden opportunity to over-think things.
As Moe famously told Curly and Larry, '...stick with the plan dummies.'
I'm a recent convert to mjedlin66 seasonal strategy with one small change. I'm heading into G (from S) a couple of trading days early to lock-in some short-term gains. Instead of waiting until Tuesday, I'm pulling the trigger tonight. Next move is back to S on June 13th...
As Moe famously told Curly and Larry, '...stick with the plan dummies.'
I'm a recent convert to mjedlin66 seasonal strategy with one small change. I'm heading into G (from S) a couple of trading days early to lock-in some short-term gains. Instead of waiting until Tuesday, I'm pulling the trigger tonight. Next move is back to S on June 13th...
Re: June - The Next IFT
Sticking with my seasonal.
"Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch
Re: June - The Next IFT
Same here. No time to deviate now.
Re: June - The Next IFT
What does the plan say? I follow the plan.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: June - The Next IFT
mmmmmbeer wrote:What does the plan say? I follow the plan.
LOL...me too.
- Chamorrita
- Posts: 20
- Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:45 pm
Fund Prices2024-04-17
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.25% |
F | $18.68 | 0.50% | -2.85% |
C | $78.62 | -0.58% | 5.72% |
S | $76.27 | -0.89% | -1.07% |
I | $40.66 | -0.17% | 1.19% |
L2065 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.17% |
L2060 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.18% |
L2055 | $15.60 | -0.47% | 3.18% |
L2050 | $31.39 | -0.35% | 2.57% |
L2045 | $14.34 | -0.33% | 2.47% |
L2040 | $52.43 | -0.31% | 2.41% |
L2035 | $13.87 | -0.28% | 2.31% |
L2030 | $46.25 | -0.25% | 2.24% |
L2025 | $12.93 | -0.12% | 1.78% |
Linc | $25.29 | -0.09% | 1.55% |