June - The Next IFT

[ObamaSucks]

Most of the seasonal plans go to the F-fund in June. With the S&P 500 looking at a potential breakout, what's everyone's plans?

[TheProfit]

You might be right. I may stay with C for a while.

[Tiffany]

Staying put in the I fund for now.

[gmation2k]

I keep hearing 'positive signs'. I'm thinking C&S.

[Snapdragon]

I'm waiting for a dip in S, C and I. Should be soon. There is a reason seasonal is F and we are hitting highs on the markets

[John316]

I just heard on CNBC that the top 15 stocks in the S & P 500 are accounting for all the gains in the average. If someone can verify this, market breadth is not good. I am staying in the I fund for a while. Think gains from Europe will be better this summer. My two cents worth.

[Jokerswild]

Historically looking back many years, if you plan to stick with a core fund through June, the majority end in negative territory except G or F. The majority of seasonal strategies say to go to G or F which takes away the "emotional" trading that tends to not outperform playing on highs and lows. The S and C are reaching highs BUT historically near the end of June they tank so a safer bet may be with sticking with the seasonal suggestion of F or G. The I fund is really hard to predict IMO, because looking back years it's performance has never been as strong as it has been this year BUT that doesn't mean it will continue upwards forever through the summer. I would stick with historical data showing a move to a safer fund so you don't get caught up in a major swing if timing is incorrect and confidently come back into the stock market funds when the data supports a more confident buy in. Just my .02

[OkieTSPer]

Staying with the seasonal plan. Most of the time in the past, when I made an emotional or "intuitive move" I usually ended up losing. The only time I gained was merely luck of happenstance. I learned my lesson "I'm no good at trying to time the market". Seasonal is best for me.

[Aitrus]

I just ran a quick comparison of staying in C for June and July, vs F in June and C in July. Here's what I found:

C both months: CAGR 0.84%, PNR 69% (20 of 29 years were positive)
C both months: total return is 28.42% since 1988.

F, then C: CAGR 1.74%, PNR 66% (19 of 29 years were positive)
F, then C: total return is 53.06% since 1988.

"F, then C" outperforms "C both months" 18 out of 29 years, or 62% of the time.
"F, then C" has a higher cumulative return of 24.64% since 1988.

For the same ballpark PNR you get double the CAGR by going F in June. The years that "F, then C" did worse than "C both months" were:

1988: worse by -2.11%
1995: -1.6%
1997: -3.27%
1998: -3.2%
1999: -5.87%
2000: -0.37%
2003: -1.5%
2004: -1.26%
2012: -4.08%
2013: -0.19%
2014: -1.93%

Best years that "F, then C" outperformed "C both months":
2008: better by 8.33%
2002: 8.07%
2010: 6.8%

It may not always work, but I like the odds and the long term results of going F in June.

[bamablue]

I think this is another golden opportunity to over-think things.

As Moe famously told Curly and Larry, '...stick with the plan dummies.'

I'm a recent convert to mjedlin66 seasonal strategy with one small change. I'm heading into G (from S) a couple of trading days early to lock-in some short-term gains. Instead of waiting until Tuesday, I'm pulling the trigger tonight. Next move is back to S on June 13th...

[BoozAllen]

Sticking with my seasonal.

[MtnBiker]

Same here. No time to deviate now.

[mmmmmbeer]

What does the plan say? I follow the plan.

[Danno]

What does the plan say? I follow the plan.

LOL...me too.

[Chamorrita]

The plan is your friend.