Do you walk the walk?

[mindofmush]

I use to track my TSP with the Fantasy for more convenient tracking and nicer visuals.

I'm now testing mj's daily seasonal system to prove/disprove to myself the veracity of those huge returns.

[dearsmiths]

I always miss to make the transaction on TSPC the same day, or even week, so mine here is not always accurate but it's fairly close. The first 4 years, here its lower but I've tried to do better. This year, my real one is much higher due to forgetting to make a timely change here but trying to do better going forward.

[Aitrus]

I allocate the same. When I make an IFT on tsp.gov, I come over here immediately afterward and do the same.

[jdunn382]

I just joined this site within the past month but I'm using the monthly seasonal mix in my real TSP while I will use this fantasy TSP to test daily seasonal mix combinations. I plan on testing some of the top daily mixes from the top 100 leaderboard with my fantasy TSP. I will use a handful of different daily mixes tested for a full 1 year period to capture the comparisons.

[cb3]

How is it possible to allocate the same? Unless you do 100%, the allocation is going to drift since our real TSP accounts have contributions.

If you move your contribution allocation every time you do an IFT, then your gain/loss percentages should match.

Nope.

Let's say you put 50% in C and S. You put your contribution as 50% C and S.

So then C goes up 2% and S goes down 2%. But you still have a 50/50 split of your pay going in. It's going to then change the percentage.

Even if you stay 100% The whole year it will still vary slightly based on the market when your contributions are added but it will be very close. Same reason my civ and mil accounts vary slightly.

[Chico]

Good point.

[BigBrenda]

Walking the walk.

[LuckyLarry]

Yes I do. Since joining.

[mjedlin66]

How is it possible to allocate the same? Unless you do 100%, the allocation is going to drift since our real TSP accounts have contributions.

If you move your contribution allocation every time you do an IFT, then your gain/loss percentages should match.

Nope.

Let's say you put 50% in C and S. You put your contribution as 50% C and S.

So then C goes up 2% and S goes down 2%. But you still have a 50/50 split of your pay going in. It's going to then change the percentage.

From the TSP Glossary:

Personal Investment Performance (PIP) - The rate of return earned by your entire account during the 12-month period ending on the date indicated on your annual statement or on your Account Balance page of the TSP website. The PIP is a time-weighted return that has been calculated using the Modified Dietz method (a method used by many financial institutions and an industry standard). The PIP adjusts for the distorting effects of cash flows into or out of your account. It is an estimate; therefore, your PIP may not be the same as the 12-month performance of the TSP funds, which are time-weighted returns.

After reviewing the Modified Dietz method on wikipedia, I would be inclined to say you are correct. To me, that kind of makes the PIP worthless for the sake of comparing one account's growth to another.

[nodak]

Just so there is no confusion –

You can use TSP.gov to check your performance. I understand people like the visuals on this site but you can still go to your real account and check the YTD or specific time frame.

[Hellweek]

I do not. I much prefer a conservative buy and hold strategy for my actual TSP, but I really like playing the game to learn about different strategies here. I have made many different decisions to my actual TSP account because of this, most of which have paid off.
In general though, I like to keep about 10% in each of the G/F,C,S,I and 2050 accounts, and then put the other 50% in what ever I have allocated here. Also I don't IFT as often on my actual tsp.

[mindofmush]

From the TSP Glossary:

Personal Investment Performance (PIP) - The rate of return earned by your entire account during the 12-month period ending on the date indicated on your annual statement or on your Account Balance page of the TSP website. The PIP is a time-weighted return that has been calculated using the Modified Dietz method (a method used by many financial institutions and an industry standard). The PIP adjusts for the distorting effects of cash flows into or out of your account. It is an estimate; therefore, your PIP may not be the same as the 12-month performance of the TSP funds, which are time-weighted returns.


After reviewing the Modified Dietz method on wikipedia, I would be inclined to say you are correct. To me, that kind of makes the PIP worthless for the sake of comparing one account's growth to another.


Why should the PIP be worthless? The difference in ROR of the contribution and the ROR of the account becomes negligible the bigger the account balance compared to the amount of the contribution. It would be like measuring the level of the ocean after pissing in it (assuming your ocean is bigger than a bucket).
Other factors that would minimize the difference would be matching contribution changes to IFT changes and frequent IFTs like when using daily seasonal system.

If you have more than 100k in your TSP, you shouldn't see any difference in ROR of TSP account with or without contributions. Differences between TSP.gov PIP and TSPcenter ROR can be attributed to the cumulative differences of using indices that almost match the TSP funds.

Again, it's negligible.

[mjedlin66]

Why should the PIP be worthless? The difference in ROR of the contribution and the ROR of the account becomes negligible the bigger the account balance compared to the amount of the contribution. It would be like measuring the level of the ocean after pissing in it (assuming your ocean is bigger than a bucket).
Other factors that would minimize the difference would be matching contribution changes to IFT changes and frequent IFTs like when using daily seasonal system.

If you have more than 100k in your TSP, you shouldn't see any difference in ROR of TSP account with or without contributions. Differences between TSP.gov PIP and TSPcenter ROR can be attributed to the cumulative differences of using indices that almost match the TSP funds.

Again, it's negligible.

My account has 75k and I contribute 18k per year. So if the market grows a lot then earnings on my contributions will be substantial. It is a meaningful estimation of my total account growth, but not a meaningful estimation of account growth due to stock growth. My PIP could be higher than someone else's, even if we hold the same funds, if the market grows like a weed and they make less contributions. So ArrieS is correct that the PIP will not match TSPcenter.

TSPcenter uses TSP share prices, not underlying index prices. They should exactly match the TSP growth.

[MrSnrub]

My account has 75k and I contribute 18k per year. So if the market grows a lot then earnings on my contributions will be substantial. It is a meaningful estimation of my total account growth, but not a meaningful estimation of account growth due to stock growth. My PIP could be higher than someone else's, even if we hold the same funds, if the market grows like a weed and they make less contributions. So ArrieS is correct that the PIP will not match TSPcenter.

This is exactly incorrect. The Personal Investment Performance (PIP) does not take into account contributions. If it did, then people with extremely high TSP account balances would have higher PIPs. All PIP cares about is your fund investment choices throughout the past twelve months. So, yes, it is a meaningful estimate of account growth due to stock growth.

[ChopStix]

Good info, thanks.