This Bull is Exhausted

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Tomanyiron
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This Bull is Exhausted

Post by Tomanyiron »

Trends resist change. And they can last much longer than what seems logical. This current bull trend on all time frames has had many reversal attempts. All have failed. But one will eventually succeed, and Friday’s selloff was strong enough to put traders on their toes, and I believe ready to take a break for a few months.

For this week, from what I have seen before, I believe the odds favor sideways trading into the Wednesday’s FOMC report. A bump up, which will likely be an exhaustive end to this 7-month uptrend.

I’m looking to take some profits by Wed, (hopefully there will be some). I see as too risky any more buying for a few months. And I can visualize an uncomfortable sharp reversal down soon.

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Divergence
Image
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by crondanet5 »

I almost went G Fund today but I saw Carter Worth on Fast Money make a projection this market can move higher based on inflation. I wonder what the Seasonal investors will do.

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TopNotch
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by TopNotch »

Tomanyiron, does this agree with your fund strength strategy charts or is it a separate conclusion?
David Tepper - "There is a time to make money and a time to not lose money."

Warren Buffett - "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

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Tomanyiron
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by Tomanyiron »

TopNotch wrote:Tomanyiron, does this agree with your fund strength strategy charts or is it a separate conclusion?

Some agreement, in that all the funds are in the negative except the S, and it's up only a hair.
However if the day continues like it's looking now there will be some strength returning I suppose.
The strength strategy works best in trending markets. This sideways stuff gives too many signals. I'm running out of IFTs too fast. The search is on for something that gives more help making IFT decisions.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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TopNotch
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by TopNotch »

Thanks, based on the 50 day SMA and some other indicators that I look at, I see the C and S have positive upward momentum. The I fund has shifted to slight negative downward momentum, but it is very close and could cross back. This market shook off a lot of political uncertainty. I agree with you that we can get a bounce Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. After that I think the market will go sideways for the summer.
David Tepper - "There is a time to make money and a time to not lose money."

Warren Buffett - "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

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Tomanyiron
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by Tomanyiron »

Also in the back of my mind I still remember something Paul Saffo said. “Lots of interlocking weak information is vastly more trustworthy than a point or two of strong information.”

A comparison example he used:
“One of the biggest mistakes a forecaster—or a decision maker—can make is to overrely on one piece of seemingly strong information because it happens to reinforce the conclusion he or she has already reached. This lesson was tragically underscored when nine U.S. destroyers ran aground on the shores of central California on the fog-shrouded evening of September 8, 1923.
The lost ships were part of DesRon 11, a 14-ship squadron steaming from San Francisco to San Diego. Misled largely by overreliance on the commander’s dead-reckoning navigation, the squadron undershot the turn into the Santa Barbara Channel and instead ended up on the rocks at Point Pedernales, several miles to the northwest.
The squadron had navigated by dead reckoning for most of the trip, but as the ships approached the channel, the squadron’s commander obtained bearings from a radio direction station at Point Arguello. The bearing placed his ship, the Delphy, north of its dead reckoning position. Convinced that his dead reckoning was accurate, the commander reinterpreted the bearing data in a way that confirmed his erroneous position and ordered a sharp course change towards the rapidly approaching coast. Nine ships followed the disastrous course.
Meanwhile, the deck officers on the Kennedy, the 11th boat in the formation, had concluded from their dead reckoning that they in fact were farther north and closer to shore than the position given by the Delphy. The skipper was skeptical, but the doubt the deck officers raised was sufficient for him to hedge his bets; an hour before the fateful turn he ordered a course change that placed his ship several hundred yards to the west of the ships in front of them, allowing the Kennedy and the three trailing destroyers to avert disaster.
The essential difference between the two skippers’ responses was that the Delphy’s skipper ignored evidence that invalidated his dead-reckoning information and narrowed his cone of uncertainty at the very moment when the data was screaming out to broaden it. In contrast, the Kennedy’s skipper listened to the multiple sources of conflicting weak information and concluded that his ship’s position was much less certain than assumed. He hedged their bets and, therefore, saved the ship. ”
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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mrmaxd
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by mrmaxd »

My ship has stayed in G all month because I am to scared to set sail. :lol:

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Tomanyiron
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by Tomanyiron »

mrmaxd wrote:My ship has stayed in G all month because I am to scared to set sail. :lol:

Did you make that decision on a "lot of interlocking weak information"?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

baroclinic
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by baroclinic »

The Friday/Monday selloff was just dumb, caused by analysts out to make a quick buck. If you bought NVIDIA at $50, have a chance to sell it at $150 before buying it back at $130-140, your going to, just like most shorts did. They will return to pick up their tech now that is it in now in the bargain bin, slowly re-strengthen the tech stocks, along with new investors getting a chance to get some hot bargain tech.

Oil continues to go neg, which I expect to continue to boost oil refineries to move up. I expect retail like Target, Walmart, and other retail to continue to recover from every time these sheep sale after Macy's says lower profits.

I predict we still have at least a week or two (most likely longer) to enjoy the C and S funds before hiding behind the G fund for the rest of the summer.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by Tomanyiron »

Welcome to the forum baroclinic, I like the way you talk. We also like predictions:
baroclinic wrote:I predict we still have at least a week or two (most likely longer) to enjoy the C and S funds before hiding behind the G fund for the rest of the summer.

Where you been, we need people to stand tall, and make bold predictions like that. Of course we would like to see your moves on the Fantasy also.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by crondanet5 »

baroclinic waiting for your IFT.
Last edited by crondanet5 on Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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ArrieS
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by ArrieS »

All we need for the good times to continue is a tax holiday and tax reform.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

OkieTSPer
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by OkieTSPer »

Thanks Tomi.

baroclinic
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by baroclinic »

I've been screwing around for last 5 years... LOL, buying silly cars. Now I'm banging my head against the wall for only investing in KK doughnuts (which made over 700% return in approx. 10 years before getting bought out).

I just started my Fantasy TSP, combo C, S, and I fund. Don't know much about I, but its been strong lately so I'm counting on it to cancel out nights like last night, where US markets are acting plain dumb (Macy's went up/Google went down). I expect to close green again tonight, as most stocks were slowly rising back up after the FED meeting, but only had 1hr after the plummet for buy-back time.

Gas (VLO, MPC, TSO), they still continued to sink for reasons I'm still trying to fanthom.

Bright side, aftermarket saw red and freaked then jumped out of the train without paying attention to the last hour, so next market you might grab a small discount on some stocks too if your so inclined to play.
Last edited by baroclinic on Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:30 am, edited 2 times in total.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: This Bull is Exhausted

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Pre-Trading is looking pretty sucky at the moment:

U.S. Stock Futures
S&P -4.75 / -0.20%
Level 2,430.50
Fair Value 2,435.88
Difference -5.38
Data as of 1:14am ET

Nasdaq -26.75 / -0.47%
Level 5,706.00
Fair Value 5,734.59
Difference -28.59
Data as of 1:14am ET

Dow -23.00 / -0.11%
Level 21,304.00
Data as of 1:14am ET


Though I'm 100% F right now so excited to see what it opens at.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".