Strength and Mood

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Wednesday September 27, 2017

A lower corporate tax rate called for by the Trump administration caused a good day for US stocks. And it was a small caps day. The C fund was not too shabby, F fund is hurting.
On the Mood chart that is not a new high, it was a little higher on Friday last week.


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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Thursday September 28, 2017
What can I say? Nothing really jumps-out, except the continued dominance of the S fund. But that looks to be changing. And the bottom of the negative bars for the I and F funds, are getting shorter.
Mood is up, and equal to where it was last Friday (3.72), nothing significant about that.
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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

OkieTSPer
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by OkieTSPer »

Thanks for the update.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Friday September 29, 2017

End of the week, end of the month, and end of the quarter, and stocks had some good gains. October and the future? I do see where the S fund seems to be creeping down. While the I fund is moving up. The I and C are linked because of the international connection, so the I pulled the C up some. The F fund is still wallowing in the brown mud.

The C fund Mood made a new high, suggesting that Monday’s low was only a short-term bottom.


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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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maui21ice
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by maui21ice »

Tomanyiron wrote:I do see where the S fund seems to be creeping down.


I hope that's the case since the S-fund will be my stomping grounds come mid-October. 8-)

sakae90
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by sakae90 »

What do you think the f fund will do next month? It has to go up sometime, can't stay negative forever just because of fed's balance sheet.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Monday October 2, 2017

Nothing ranging from a nuclear threat, the worst natural disasters, gridlock in the federal government, and the deadliest mass shooting in the US, seems to be able to derail the up-trend in the stock market.

We waste our time pointing out signs of potential doom that have in the past been harbingers of future trouble. Nothing that used to work with technical analysis seems to hold much faith any more. All that counts is what the central banks and the robots decide.

You can only count on price as the ultimate truth. And Monday was a reminder of why I started this project. The “Strength” bars are smoothed out versions of price. And the S fund has had the most strength for a while.


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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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evilanne
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by evilanne »

Everyone seems to get nervous when markets are high but seems like economic indicators appear to be positive thus supporting what is happening. Not sure what the impact Fed's proposed slow unwinding could have on markets. ECB's next policy meeting isn't until 26 October
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/europea ... xpect.html

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Tuesday October 3, 2017

The Strength bars show the S fund as dominating. The C fund in an easy to see up-trend. I fund wavy indecisive. And could the F fund be starting an up-trend?

Since 9/9 the Mood line has been reflecting what Anne said.

evilanne wrote:Everyone seems to get nervous when markets are high but seems like economic indicators appear to be positive thus supporting what is happening....


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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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jlozano042
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by jlozano042 »

Thank you Tomanyiron for what you do.

Baywatch
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Baywatch »

Great info. Thanks.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Wednesday October 4, 2017

C fund Strength at 106, the same as Tuesday, the only fund not down. Understandable because it was the only fund in the green at EOD (except for the never down G). The S fund is showing a little down-trend, which may account for something or maybe not. The F and I funds are all confused, up and down, up and down.

The separation between the Mood and price line is widening. In the past that meant something. Could a pull-back be on the way, or the often called for correction?


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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

shadogree
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by shadogree »

Something is about to happen and full moon tomorrow. This is all toooo good to be true.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Thursday October 5, 2017

S fund trending down while C fund trends up. It appears that large caps are being bought with money from the sell of small caps.

The Mood line did some closing of that gap between it and the C fund price.


Image [URL=https://i.imgur.com/gn2Zkno.png]Image[/URL
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

GoRedSox
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by GoRedSox »

Signs of a market on verge of a "melt up". Excerpts from story below. Complete article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-st ... 2017-10-04

The S&P followed that turnaround with a series of fresh records. On Thursday, the S&P notched its sixth consecutive record close, its longest such streak since June 1997. The Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +0.50% and Nasdaq COMP, +0.78% also ended at records

Dramatic and unexpected’

Saut pointed to the Investopedia definition of a meltup as a “dramatic and unexpected” rise in the performance of an asset class driven in part by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on the rise rather than by improvements in fundamentals. Melt-ups are often followed by market drops.


Saut, who noted that Raymond James’s short- and intermediate-term models had turned negative in early August, said the recent rally “was certainly unexpected by us.”

It isn’t so clear, however, whether the rally lacks improving fundamentals given stronger-than-expected economic data, including upgraded gross-domestic-product readings and the fastest manufacturing pace in 13 years, he said in a note.

And as of yet, there’s little sign of a stampede. Total composite volume on Thursday was 5.81 billion shares versus a year-to-date average of 6.45 billion.

How melt-ups begin

Others have also attributed recent gains in part to revived optimism over potential corporate tax cuts as the White House and congressional Republicans revive a push for a wide-ranging tax bill.

Whether the market continues to melt up “remains to be seen, but what has happened since a week ago sure resembles how such melt ups begin,” he wrote.

De Graaf, meanwhile, argued that it is the strong data, and what he sees as a behind-the-curve Fed, that is setting the stage for a potential meltup.

He fears that favorable credit conditions are driving asset inflation and points to the gap between the yield on the 2-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y, +1.39% which is near a 10-year high at 1.479%, and the fed-funds rate, which stands at 1% to 1.25% (see chart below).

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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