Strength and Mood

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Tomanyiron
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

I’m presenting an additional chart. Something that has been on my mind for a while, the market has moods. And it’s often reflected in volatility. But volatility alone seemed incomplete. So I have combined volume, and price momentum in the calculations. I have high hopes that this will be less lagging and more leading of price movements.

This “Mood Factor” is meant for stocks in general. Not as a, “is the S fund better than the C fund now” type questions. The “Strength Factor” might be better for that kind of decisions. I have plans to update both daily. And each will have its own “signature” range.

The complete formula is beyond the scope of this post. However the formula will not change for either of these indexes, as time goes by. I want them to stay true, no matter what they say.

I’m not presenting this as the ultimate trading indicator. I have no illusions. I see it only as another tool. I don’t have the skills or patience to backtest it further than what you see. This is the last 33 trading days. I made the calculations for each day over the past week. Over the weekend I checked it for errors. Then I plugged the numbers in and voila… this is it.

The purple line is the daily mood.
The darker purple line is mood's trend line.
The green line is C fund's performance.
The darker green line is C fund's trend.

Look it over, what do you see? I noticed a couple of things that I thought were interesting.
Image
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

sunny
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by sunny »

IT'S ALIVE! Sorry had to say that, but unfortunately cannot obtain the image.

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evilanne
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by evilanne »

Mood & C Fund went down when they started talking impeachment/appointed special prosecutor. Mood is more volatile than market.

Scorpio70
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Scorpio70 »

Mr. Market is a bipolar personality. Mood....who knows.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Monday June 19, 2017

For the day, the Mood was good and the Strength was good also.
The C fund was the strongest; a close 2nd was the S fund, the I fund had about half their gains.
The I fund, (graph-wise) is still in the negative, it’s had a couple of bad weeks.
Image
The Mood could have been higher, volume was only about 86% of the average. Not totally bad, just could have been better.

A little bit more about volume, and why it’s important. High volume means greater participation. And increased reliance placed on the movement of price. High volume indicates a consensus of market participants. Prices can be pushed around easily on low volume days, which might not reflect the true intentions or “mood” of the participants overall.

Image
evilanne wrote: Mood is more volatile than market.


Yes it is, it swings higher and lower than price movements. At times, it looks like it’s trying to get our attention.

Yesterday I said, I saw a couple of things that I thought were interesting.
1. That big dip we had on the 17th of May (C fund -1.79%, S fund -2.23%), “Who knew” right? Evidently “Mood” knew. For a week before, mood was stepping down a little each day. At the same time price was see-sawing along with a slight up bias.
2. And then when the market started to recoup, price had 4 up-days, then a little see-sawing again. But mood was confident, with 7 up-days in a row.
3. I see many confirming days, I also see some days when mood moved counter to price, is that predictory?

This may be a fool's folly, but the conflicts between price and mood will have my attention for a while.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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ArrieS
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by ArrieS »

The S&P 500 is 4.41% above its 125-day average. This is further above the average than has been typical during the last two years and rapid increases like this often indicate extreme greed.

Also, stocks have outperformed bonds by 2.65 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the strongest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are rotating into stocks from the relative safety of bonds.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

ArrieS wrote:The S&P 500 is 4.41% above its 125-day average. This is further above the average than has been typical during the last two years and rapid increases like this often indicate extreme greed.

Also, stocks have outperformed bonds by 2.65 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the strongest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are rotating into stocks from the relative safety of bonds.

And I see you moved a little out of stocks (your 1st IFT this year). Does that mean your thinking overbought?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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ArrieS
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by ArrieS »

Tomanyiron wrote:
ArrieS wrote:The S&P 500 is 4.41% above its 125-day average. This is further above the average than has been typical during the last two years and rapid increases like this often indicate extreme greed.

Also, stocks have outperformed bonds by 2.65 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the strongest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are rotating into stocks from the relative safety of bonds.

And I see you moved a little out of stocks (your 1st IFT this year). Does that mean your thinking overbought?


Just getting nervous. No investor ever got hurt taking a profit. Honestly no one should pay me any attention when it comes to investing. I am a strong proponent of buy and hold, but even I can't get that right. :lol:
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Tuesday June 20, 2017
Looking depressing huh?
Image

On the Mood chart, we now have the 3rd lower high. Volume on this down-day was about the same as Monday’s up-day. However the VIX was up. VIX as a measurement of volatility translates to anxiety, and trends the opposite direction as price.
Image
I interpret these as signals to sell, and go to G for the rest of June. The F fund does not tempt me, even if I had another IFT to use.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Trumper1
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Trumper1 »

Tomanyiron wrote:Updated EOD Tuesday June 20, 2017
Looking depressing huh?
Image

On the Mood chart, we now have the 3rd lower high. Volume on this down-day was about the same as Monday’s up-day. However the VIX was up. VIX as a measurement of volatility translates to anxiety, and trends the opposite direction as price.
Image
I interpret these as signals to sell, and go to G for the rest of June. The F fund does not tempt me, even if I had another IFT to use.


Tommie you obviously have some talent in creating all these nice colorful charts. But when I look at your Fantasy TSP account, it tells a different story. It shows that you’ve been at this since April 2010, but your balance is only at 152k. That’s like number 258 on the account balance leaderboard. Heck there are dozens of members who just started in 2013 that have much larger balances. And this year alone you’re at number 1183 on the leader board with only a 4.05% YTD return. Granted it’s a positive return, but with all the fancy eye candy charts and technical mumbo jumbo, one could reasonably expect you to at least be in the top 100 on the 2017 YTD leaderboard. Anyway the concern is that newer members to TSP Center who come across all this jargon may be misled into following a path that does not provide the optimal return on their real TSP.

Jazzin
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Jazzin »

Trumper1 wrote:Tommie you obviously have some talent in creating all these nice colorful charts. But when I look at your Fantasy TSP account, it tells a different story. It shows that you’ve been at this since April 2010, but your balance is only at 152k. That’s like number 258 on the account balance leaderboard. Heck there are dozens of members who just started in 2013 that have much larger balances. And this year alone you’re at number 1183 on the leader board with only a 4.05% YTD return. Granted it’s a positive return, but with all the fancy eye candy charts and technical mumbo jumbo, one could reasonably expect you to at least be in the top 100 on the 2017 YTD leaderboard. Anyway the concern is that newer members to TSP Center who come across all this jargon may be misled into following a path that does not provide the optimal return on their real TSP.


Whoa, thanks for pointing that out for us newbies. I thought it looked legit with all the technical stuff. But I'm looking for something a bit more profitable. I think I'm about ready to choose a seasonal approach. The proof is in the pudding right? And a mere 4% pudding is not quite sweet enough.

TSPjourney
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Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:24 pm

Re: Strength and Mood

Post by TSPjourney »

Ditto, thanks Trumper1. Needless to say that what looks and sounds like someone who knows a lot about investing here does not translate into real profit. Charts, graphs and technical market speak obviously do not reflect in this users' Fantasy TSP numbers!

ron.logan
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by ron.logan »

Trumper1 and TSPjourney, what do you use as your "path" that does provide the optimal return on your real TSP? If you have something better and more informative than "fancy eye candy charts and technical mumbo jumbo", please share. I was a buy and hold guy but site has made me rethink that approach. I have been studying the seasonal strategies (monthly and daily) and understand they are based on past market history. If history repeats itself, these strategies should work but who knows what the future market is going to do. Tommie's charts do provide info, I just don't know how to use that info except to see what the market has done. I would really like to see something simple to help me make smart decisions on when to make IFTs and what fund to move to. I'm open to ideas.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Trumper1, and TSPjourney Thanks for the question(s). Let me ask you a few: Do you know more now than you did seven years ago? Do you know more today than you did last year? Do you know how the year will end for you? Do you not think it’s best to read all was through before assuming.
Tomanyiron wrote: I’m not presenting this as the ultimate trading indicator. I have no illusions. I see it only as another tool.

I often have a disclaimer of sorts in all the threads I start. The one above was in the first post.
Trumper1 wrote: Heck there are dozens of members who just started in 2013 that have much larger balances.

Yea, and some of them have submitted very intelligent post. But most don’t, who knows why, it might be because of what just happened.

There are several “leaders” on this site, that post strategies. They all deserve respect. I don't claim to be one of them.

Anyway, you guys got nothing to brag about, come back when you’re not so naïve. Then your comments will carry more weight.

Thanks Ron
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

Killerbee
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Killerbee »

Tomanyiron wrote:Anyway, you guys got nothing to brag about, come back when you’re not so naïve. Then your comments will carry more weight.

Thanks Ron


Looks like Trumper1 has a 9.92% return on Fantasy TSP. That's something to brag about. :mrgreen:

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".