Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

[mmmmmbeer]

For my own notes, I've decided to change over to the #16198 this month. I like the stability of this strategy much better. No flyers for at least the last 13 years and on track this year as well. No annual returns under 25.99% in going on 14 years.

Mean: 31.29%
Std Dev: 4.34%
CAGR: 31.21%
Total Compound Return: 3,318.05
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 56.00%

Time in fund (%): G: 20% F: 24% C: 15% S: 36% I: 6%

I also really dig how little this strat is in the International Fund. I am not a fan of that fund at all.

Something I noted when comparing this new #16198 to my old Strat #7980, the last coue months when the 7980 utilizes the G fund the #16198 is in the F for the same time period. Interestingly enough its more stable than the #7980.

I was going to wait until the Jan 1 of 2018, but thought meh.. I've been in 3 or 4 of them along with a monthly Strat for the first 5 months anyway. This year has definately been a year to find myself in the TSP for sure.

[Thirty3]

mmmmmmmbeer.... what do you think about strat #16517?

[mmmmmbeer]

mmmmmmmbeer.... what do you think about strat #16517?

Well compared to #16198, they are pretty much identical far as results.

Year Total 16517
2004 29.40 28.91
2005 25.99 25.70
2006 28.78 30.89
2007 28.42 26.67
2008 36.03 35.23
2009 35.52 34.03
2010 39.31 37.82
2011 37.21 35.35
2012 34.34 36.92
2013 28.98 31.46
2014 27.89 27.64
2015 26.18 25.94
2016 28.67 29.20
Mean: 31.29 31.21
Std Dev: 4.34 4.10
CAGR: 31.21 31.15
Total Compound Return: 3,318.05 3,295.39
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 56.00 55.60


It's really oranges to oranges here... both look excellent imho.

[Thirty3]

true

[walker]

Nice going.

[nrialto]

mmmmmbeer,

I compared 7980 and 16198. I replaced 7980's four months in which 16198 got better returns (Mar, Sep, Oct and Dec) and got strategy #16922. Here's the total:

Mean: 38.52
Std: 23.33
CAGR: 36.75
Total: 7,895.37
TIS: 60%

Let me know what you think.

[mmmmmbeer]

mmmmmbeer,

I compared 7980 and 16198. I replaced 7980's four months in which 16198 got better returns (Mar, Sep, Oct and Dec) and got strategy #16922. Here's the total:

Mean: 38.52
Std: 23.33
CAGR: 36.75
Total: 7,895.37
TIS: 60%

Let me know what you think.

The results are pretty good. Just the STD Dev is a bit high for my comfort. Quite a bit of deviation makes for a less stable return I think. The strategy is showing returns from 15% - 95% in 14 years. Granted even the low number is a pretty danged good rate of return for a year, just huge gap of an 80% fluctuation in return sort of spooks me to it's stability.

The #16198 has nothing less than 25.99% or greater than 39.31%... pretty steady as she goes.

[fordest]

For my own notes, I've decided to change over to the #16198 this month. I like the stability of this strategy much better. No flyers for at least the last 13 years and on track this year as well. No annual returns under 25.99% in going on 14 years.

Mean: 31.29%
Std Dev: 4.34%
CAGR: 31.21%
Total Compound Return: 3,318.05
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 56.00%

Time in fund (%): G: 20% F: 24% C: 15% S: 36% I: 6%

A very nice choice IMO. Consider taking a look at #16384. It's two days different at the end of May (G two days early). With everything the same as #16198 for the rest of this year, by the time we hit 2018 it will take over as the leader in all your considerations. Including time in CSI.

[onerepmax]

I'm leaning 15586
2004-2017 (
Mean 32.54
Std Dev: 8.97
CAGR: 32.24
Total Compound Return: 4,900.03
G 26
F 18
C 16
S 34
I 6
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 55.20

A little less time in F, no year below 21%, a little more upside.

[walker]

Lol. I'd be happy with half that number.

[texasex78]

Hi,
I apologize if this question has been answered already or the stupidity of the question. When you make a move is it both future contributions and accumulated ? I’m sure this is a silly question. I plan on retiring the end of 2020 and so far by dumb luck i’ve Managed to amass ~1.4M in my tsp. I would love to find something that would watch it grow but not have to micromanage- seemed like daily or seasonal strategy would be good. Thanks

[Racerx919]

For my own notes, I've decided to change over to the #16198 this month. I like the stability of this strategy much better. No flyers for at least the last 13 years and on track this year as well. No annual returns under 25.99% in going on 14 years.

Mean: 31.29%
Std Dev: 4.34%
CAGR: 31.21%
Total Compound Return: 3,318.05
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 56.00%

Time in fund (%): G: 20% F: 24% C: 15% S: 36% I: 6%

I also really dig how little this strat is in the International Fund. I am not a fan of that fund at all.

Something I noted when comparing this new #16198 to my old Strat #7980, the last coue months when the 7980 utilizes the G fund the #16198 is in the F for the same time period. Interestingly enough its more stable than the #7980.

I was going to wait until the Jan 1 of 2018, but thought meh.. I've been in 3 or 4 of them along with a monthly Strat for the first 5 months anyway. This year has definately been a year to find myself in the TSP for sure.

Interesting indeed, at what point would you swing in? The overlap isn't really that big, so perhaps the last day in 'S' for 7980 make the switch?

[mmmmmbeer]

Hi,
I apologize if this question has been answered already or the stupidity of the question. When you make a move is it both future contributions and accumulated ? I’m sure this is a silly question. I plan on retiring the end of 2020 and so far by dumb luck i’ve Managed to amass ~1.4M in my tsp. I would love to find something that would watch it grow but not have to micromanage- seemed like daily or seasonal strategy would be good. Thanks

Not a stupid question at all. For both the monthly and daily seadonal strategies you change both the new allocations and accululated fund.

[mmmmmbeer]

For my own notes, I've decided to change over to the #16198 this month. I like the stability of this strategy much better. No flyers for at least the last 13 years and on track this year as well. No annual returns under 25.99% in going on 14 years.

Mean: 31.29%
Std Dev: 4.34%
CAGR: 31.21%
Total Compound Return: 3,318.05
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 56.00%

Time in fund (%): G: 20% F: 24% C: 15% S: 36% I: 6%

I also really dig how little this strat is in the International Fund. I am not a fan of that fund at all.

Something I noted when comparing this new #16198 to my old Strat #7980, the last coue months when the 7980 utilizes the G fund the #16198 is in the F for the same time period. Interestingly enough its more stable than the #7980.

I was going to wait until the Jan 1 of 2018, but thought meh.. I've been in 3 or 4 of them along with a monthly Strat for the first 5 months anyway. This year has definately been a year to find myself in the TSP for sure.

Interesting indeed, at what point would you swing in? The overlap isn't really that big, so perhaps the last day in 'S' for 7980 make the switch?

Well for me it's going to be tomorrow. 16198 had the IFT to the C tomorrow (Oct 20th), while 7980 waits until Monday the 23rd. So to switch it's as easy as waiting until after noon today to enter in the IFT scheduled tomorrow to the C fund.

[Racerx919]

Good enough, I am officially switching to #16198, based on your research and the TSPCAL, which seems sound. #7980 was working well and brought a nice return yet seems to have gone flat. Appreciate your time and effort as well as you communicating your findings to the group!