Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

User avatar
fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by fordest »

Thirty3 wrote:
onerepmax wrote:Before noon IFTs "normally" trade at close that day.
so IFT to C today before noon means that come Monday you are in C and bought in at Friday’s share price correct?
Exactly correct. And yes, that means that you bought the C at a record high. And you sold the S at a record high so, that is a wash. But what people are trying to argue here is that timing rarely works for them. And that by waiting for the C to dip low enough to be a "bargain price" they are sitting on the sidelines and possibly lose out on gains. The point of sticking with the plan is to remove the guessing. Remove the emotion. Remove the timing factor of the whole thing. If you are going to try to time the market, then you are not strictly following a strategy, but rather using it as a loose guideline. There's nothing wrong with that if that's the way you want to do it, but I don't think most people using the daily strategies have that in mind.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

DeathStar
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:05 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by DeathStar »

Well said.

Thirty3
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:40 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by Thirty3 »

but if you sell out of C and S today and collect the +15% gains, then avoid the 5% pullback that may or maynot happen, you can buy back in and ride the gains going up right?

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Thirty3 wrote:but if you sell out of C and S today and collect the +15% gains, then avoid the 5% pullback that may or maynot happen, you can buy back in and ride the gains going up right?
You're right. You should do that. Which is not doing a daily at all, but a market timing, buy low sell high. That's great if it works for you. It's not something that works for most people in the long run, but hey if it works for you, go for it! :D
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

OBJmedford
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:48 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by OBJmedford »

Once you get that timing thing figured out over a whole year, come back and let us know.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by Octjan2 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
Thirty3 wrote:but if you sell out of C and S today and collect the +15% gains, then avoid the 5% pullback that may or maynot happen, you can buy back in and ride the gains going up right?
You're right. You should do that. Which is not doing a daily at all, but a market timing, buy low sell high. That's great if it works for you. It's not something that works for most people in the long run, but hey if it works for you, go for it! :D
Over the past 21 years I have tried every strategy known to man. The buy low, sell high requires an enormous amount of time and energy watching and fretting over the markets, and in the end you will still be LUCKY making 20%. The 16198 has a low of 25.99% and you have to do nothing except follow it. And one more thing about timing the market....you will still probably get caught in the downward spiral because the market has a way of tricking you in to thinking it is a good time to buy when it is not. On the Friday before Black Monday the market was down 9% for the week. Many people bought in thinking they were getting one heck of a deal just to watch it drop over 20% on Monday.

OBJmedford
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:48 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by OBJmedford »

Perfectly spoken. The timing approach is very time consuming and too stressful. Heck, by the time you retire you're due for a heart attack.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Alrighty folks... another month in the books. Month five to be exact since I started doing the "Daily Seasonal" back in June of this year.

October was a roller coaster. We were up and down and up and down. It was somewhat frustrating, but at least we were able to squeak out a positive return in the last week-ish that saved the month. We didn't quite meet the hoped for October average of the previous 13 years, but a positive month is a positive month. We ended up getting a +0.54% return for the month. This brings Team mmmmmbeers totals to:

Oct. 2017 = +0.54%

Daily Return since Jun 1, 2017 = +8.81%

Mmmmmbeer 2017 YTD = +16.82%

A pretty cool thing is that this +0.54% wiped out the super bummer -1.82% I returned in October 2016 utilizing Jahbulon's Mix. So below is my new PIP!

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 10/31/2017 is 23.36%


Not to shabs!

October is in the past.... we're on to November and December. Still hoping for a strong return these next two months to meet that pie in the sky 20% for this calendar year!

Let's get it done boys! :D
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

User avatar
onerepmax
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by onerepmax »

Congrats!

klee
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:35 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by klee »

mmmmmbeer wrote:Alrighty folks... another month in the books. Month five to be exact since I started doing the "Daily Seasonal" back in June of this year.

October was a roller coaster. We were up and down and up and down. It was somewhat frustrating, but at least we were able to squeak out a positive return in the last week-ish that saved the month. We didn't quite meet the hoped for October average of the previous 13 years, but a positive month is a positive month. We ended up getting a +0.54% return for the month. This brings Team mmmmmbeers totals to:

Oct. 2017 = +0.54%

Daily Return since Jun 1, 2017 = +8.81%

Mmmmmbeer 2017 YTD = +16.82%

A pretty cool thing is that this +0.54% wiped out the super bummer -1.82% I returned in October 2016 utilizing Jahbulon's Mix. So below is my new PIP!

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 10/31/2017 is 23.36%


Not to shabs!

October is in the past.... we're on to November and December. Still hoping for a strong return these next two months to meet that pie in the sky 20% for this calendar year!

Let's get it done boys! :D
...and girls. :)

never_nuff
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:25 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by never_nuff »

Good job, bro.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

klee wrote: ...and girls. :)
AND girls! :D Haha...
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Whew... another mile stone today! With the S fund earning +0.50% today that finally tips my yearly up over 18%... with compounding 18.52% to be exact!

With the Daily's sort of going sideways the past month or so I was a little discouraged I wouldn't have a chance for the big 2 0 but now that it's only 1.5% away I'm excited! Cummon Santa!! :D
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Holeee smokes! Go S fund... we decided to peel out... the day after the 18% mark was hit, low and behold BAM!! 19%!!

19.52%.... fantastic chance we may see the coveted 20% in November?! :D
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

23V23C
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:13 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by 23V23C »

Congrats on the 19.52%, I'm right behind you at 18.55%. Got into the Daily Strategies a little later than others but still doing so much better than on my own. Just enjoying the ride.

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".