Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

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mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Well oh my goodness.. here we are! Starting out in January I was seriously just hoping to hit my goal of 12% for the year. It was a silly little (whispered) dream... [whisper]"what if we got 20%?"[/whisper] low and behold!!

With the S Fund taking off today... +1.15%, added i to the 2.08% we already had for the month puts team mmmmmbeer @ a whopping 20.60% for the year and we're still in November.

Seriously though.. I couldn't be more tickled!

Today puts a previously unthinkable goal behind me.

+12.33% since I started using a daily seasonal strategy in June 2016.

Horray!!! :D
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Keithj01
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by Keithj01 »

What profile are you following. I thought I was following the same one as you but my November is not that high.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Keithj01 wrote:What profile are you following. I thought I was following the same one as you but my November is not that high.
Right now #16198
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

coffeebean
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:37 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by coffeebean »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
Keithj01 wrote:What profile are you following. I thought I was following the same one as you but my November is not that high.
Right now #16198
So are you going to ride 16198 the rest of 2017 or will you move to G on December 8?

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

coffeebean wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:
Keithj01 wrote:What profile are you following. I thought I was following the same one as you but my November is not that high.
Right now #16198
So are you going to ride 16198 the rest of 2017 or will you move to G on December 8?
Hrrmm.. welp I think I'm going G. Statistically it's a little better to be there than the F.

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=19046&years=04-17

It will also roll me right into my new fund for 2018, the #19046.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by Travis1984 »

Lots of F in there...I’m still having heart burn about what I’m going to do. Def going G that “break week” in December. But still on the fence...
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Travis1984 wrote:Lots of F in there...I’m still having heart burn about what I’m going to do. Def going G that “break week” in December. But still on the fence...
So here's my deal on the "no F fund at all" proposal Trav..

Unlike us, the other 299 million potential investors do not have a G fund to hide out in. For them they all still need the Bond market to invest in when they believe the market is going to get rough. That's still going to be their safe haven regardless if the fed interest rate goes up a few points.

Also.. most of our stuff is based off 13-30 years of data regarding the F... throughout that time the F fund has performed similarly regardless of interest rates.

The times we're out of the market, it still seems to be better to be in the F, than not.

But, I don't disagree with the aspect of being totally safe as kittens and have that piece of mind for only 3% less on average.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Wow... still just riding high.

Today's +0.38% gain on the last day of November puts team mmmmmbeer up to 3.81% on the month.. for a grand total of 21.27% for 2017! Mmmmm hmmmm... :)

This puts me @ a 12.96% rate of return for the 6 months I've been following a daily seasonal.

Again.. what can I say, but that I'm hooked.. line and sinker.

I will be moving to the #19046 for December to end out the year, and hopefully stay in it for 2018.

You know thinking about this process over the last 6 months, I've changed strategy numbers a few times. I sort of felt bad about that for a bit, but I've come to realize this way of investing our TSP is pretty new. Heck until 6 months ago we didn't even know it existed! So.. yes.. we're going to have growing pains... we're going to have a bit of a learning curve and I think that's okay.

We're starting to get a feel of what matters to each of us. At first I thought it was the highest Mean. Then we saw how much Std Dev plays into the picture, not to mention market exposure time. Some want to be totally out of certain funds, some just a little exposure.

All I'm saying is don't feel bad if you don't know exactly which strategy is exactly right for you.

It's okay to do something for a bit to "see how she goes". It should be taken for granted there is going to be some adjustment needed after watching how it performs. Some tweaking or dialing in to get the ine that's just right for you.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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