Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

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mmmmmbeer
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Mmmmmbeer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

So last month about this time I decided to jump into the Daily Seasonal Mixes as a 12 mo experiment. I'll be honest, after doing Juhbulon's Old Mix from Jun '16 - Jun '17 and getting a 13.79 RoR I've been leery to veer from it. So I didn't really pay attention to much when mjedline66 put it up. I saw the thread was pretty popular so started getting into the thread and got excited about it.

So I started it doing one of the mixes. Then the top stop started changing hands like popping popcorn. Ironically the fund that i started with, coincided to the current top mix of #6861. So I rolled into it naturally without a break.

Started in the G fund, then into the F, now the I at the end. The I is hard to track obviously until the end of the day, but yeah EFA gives some semblance. After doing some research I found the reason behind the I Fund/EFA variance is the EFA is only a part of the I Fund index. The other part of the I Fund is apparently foreign currencies. So.. EFA up.. maybe currencies don't do so well, it comes back a bit and vice versa. For example the last two days:

June 29th: EFA was +.87% vs I Fund was +.47%

June 30th: EFA was -.99% vs. I Fund was -.27%

So.. EFA finished +.06% on the day. #6181 was at +.61% on the month, so it's a crap-shoot if that's going up or down for the day.

Either way, it beat the "F" fund I would have been in if I had gone traditional mix. So far my 1/12 of my personal year experiment has been a positive experience.

Hopefully it does well, but it's sure been fun watching it the past month.

Year to date using Juhbulon's Old Mix for Jan to May (7.36%) + June of #6861(?.61%?) = 7.97% ish.

Thanks for reading...
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Haha.. well thanks EFA.. blew my whole month today. I fund comes back -.66% for the day. So ended up -.05% haha... dammit. :D
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Jokerswild
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by Jokerswild »

I'm right there with you with the I fund, hoped to get a little end of month bump but sadly, not the right direction. Will still be in I on Monday, then C starting Wed. The conversion of the I fund is so crazy it's pointless to even watch the Ishares EFA because you just never know. I tend to look at the strength of the dollar against foreign currencies, if the dollar gets stronger expect the conversion to go towards negative, and vice versa. A good day for being in I fund would be to see a positive high EFT close and USD currency to weaken significantly if you hope to see a nice return. Have faith in the daily seasonal, it won't always be perfect timing, but i do believe there will be months where it'll beat staying in a core fund if following a traditional seasonal strategy.
Shawn AKA "Joker"

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Scarfinger
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by Scarfinger »

mmmmmbeer wrote:Haha.. well thanks EFA.. blew my whole month today. I fund comes back -.66% for the day. So ended up -.05% haha... dammit. :D


That sucks.

Sticking with I fund. I ended up +.32% for June because I jumped in early and caught the bounce up. Unfortunately the bounce has dropped as we are all seeing.

*Fingers crossed* Come on I fund, do us right :)
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Welp... the I fund ended up +0.27% on the last day puts us @ about +2.38% on the month for the month of July the 7654. Not bad, I'll take it. Beat the C fund for sure, so that's 2 months in a row we beat the regular seasonals.

By changing one day (waiting to IFT to the C fund on July 6th instead of the 5th) the 7653 did better @ 3.31%...

Oh what a difference one day can make.

That being said.:

June: -0.06%
July: 2.38%

Still keeping me on track with the goal of 1% a month.

On to the F fund... though the 1st day in August is still in the I fund with the IFT being effective Aug 2nd.
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Great month so far... boy what a great 1st day for the I fund for the Aug daily mixes @ +0.84%... the rest of the month in the F was meh... as the F fund usually is. The the scary change to the S fund which has been taking a beating all month long. Four trading days to go to see how we did!

So to update a little with Matt releasing the tspcalc.com V2.0, I took a long hard look at the filters and how they could help me hone in on a possibly better strat for me.

I wanted something with a low "Standard Deviation" while still maintaining a relatively high Mean. I entered 18% standard dev in the filter and a 35% mean and boom, #7980 showed up as top of the class with an even lower standard deviation of 16.67%

So take a look at #7980:

AVG: 35.59
CAGR: 34.64
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 58.00

A Mean of 35.59% with a Standard Deviation of only 16.68%!

Woooowww... I know its 2% off the leader but look at those yearly returns. All so strong with no huge swings. Such a nice even deviation. And only a market exposure of 58%? Lower standard deviation equals a more stable mix right?! Right on, right on... :)

So yeah, I decided to go for it, and shared my findings with folks on the bored and I think that other's sorta understood where I was coming from with the data and are thinking about making the 7980 their strat as well.

So today was a milestone for me... or it could have been yesterday, but I just noticed it today! :D

Today I noticed after close that I'm finally beating the tmj100 monthly seasonal mix for the year!

tmj100 = 11.11%

mmmmmbeer = 11.70%

Wooo hooo! I've always thought the tmj100 to be a bad ash mix and if I wasn't following a daily, it would be the monthly for me.

So far I'm happy I took the leap of faith and the 1st 3 months of the seasonal have been pretty on. We'll see how she goes next week to finish up!

Anyways... just wanted to share the experience so far. Thanks for reading.
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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evilanne
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by evilanne »

mmmmmbeer...you would make a good salesman :mrgreen:

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

evilanne wrote:mmmmmbeer...you would make a good salesman :mrgreen:


I worked undercover dope for 4 years. Anne I could buy anything from anyone! Hahah!
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hellsbells
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by hellsbells »

Way to go brother.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

hellsbells wrote:Way to go brother.


Thanks man... it's just the little stuff. Got to take your victories where you can get them! haha....
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Welp... personal milestone today. I stole my goal from Aitrus's Musings but it's my own!

Today with the S fund giving us a big fat +0.70% return (pending the DWCPF being on with the S fund today) to put me over my yearly goal of average at least 1% a month for at least 12% a year!

This puts the folks following most of the top dailies @ 2.46% on the month, and mmmmmbeer @ 12.56% thus far.

Cummon S fund, just be green tomorrow for a great way to end an August. We're about 2/3's done with hopefully another 4 months of good gains to go!

***EDIT*** this is only the 3rd month of my Daily Seasonal Experiment though... so... yeah, another 9 months of this.
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James1018
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by James1018 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:Welp... personal milestone today. I stole my goal from Aitrus's Musings but it's my own!

Today with the S fund giving us a big fat +0.70% return (pending the DWCPF being on with the S fund today) to put me over my yearly goal of average at least 1% a month for at least 12% a year!

This puts the folks following most of the top dailies @ 2.46% on the month, and mmmmmbeer @ 12.56% thus far.

Cummon S fund, just be green tomorrow for a great way to end an August. We're about 2/3's done with hopefully another 4 months of good gains to go!

***EDIT*** this is only the 3rd month of my Daily Seasonal Experiment though... so... yeah, another 9 months of this.


Awesome man! Following the #7980 I'm assuming for the daily seasonal?

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

James1018 wrote:
Awesome man! Following the #7980 I'm assuming for the daily seasonal?


Yessir... #7980 is sort of my baby, though obviously someone calculated it, and I don't think it was me, but I'm not positive. I'll venture to guess I sorta messed with the calculators first and found it, as I was one of the folks who beta'd the new calculator for Matt! haha....

I've been championing it since. Though... of course when it fails everyone is coming to lynch old mmmmbeer. =)

Oh and of course all hail mjed as the creator of the calculator... I just have to run faster than him. :D
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James1018
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by James1018 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
James1018 wrote:
Awesome man! Following the #7980 I'm assuming for the daily seasonal?


Yessir... #7980 is sort of my baby, though obviously someone calculated it, and I don't think it was me, but I'm not positive. I'll venture to guess I sorta messed with the calculators first and found it, as I was one of the folks who beta'd the new calculator for Matt! haha....

I've been championing it since. Though... of course when it fails everyone is coming to lynch old mmmmbeer. =)

Oh and of course all hail mjed as the creator of the calculator... I just have to run faster than him. :D


Well, I'm following it and YOU too so if it goes down well go together :lol:

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Mmmmm...beer's 12 mo Daily Seasonal Experience

Post by mmmmmbeer »

James1018 wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:
James1018 wrote:
Awesome man! Following the #7980 I'm assuming for the daily seasonal?


Yessir... #7980 is sort of my baby, though obviously someone calculated it, and I don't think it was me, but I'm not positive. I'll venture to guess I sorta messed with the calculators first and found it, as I was one of the folks who beta'd the new calculator for Matt! haha....

I've been championing it since. Though... of course when it fails everyone is coming to lynch old mmmmbeer. =)

Oh and of course all hail mjed as the creator of the calculator... I just have to run faster than him. :D


Well, I'm following it and YOU too so if it goes down well go together :lol:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYFSqKXAfHM

:D
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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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