TSP Center

If you have reviewed "mjedlin66's Calculator powered by craft beer" then maybe you too are Curious about the Seasonally minded.
Great job on that calculator by the way and Thank You!
Were there many transfers on the 4th or 5th Trading Day? It didn't seem so.
Is it possible to review past history interfund transfer's?

Yeah I'm following it. There were some. Unfortunately for us, we missed out on the first few good days of this July market to offset early daily mix losses. We're running about -.30% behind the core seasonal mixes of Jabs or tmj etc so far.

mmmmmbeer wrote:Yeah I'm following it. There were some. Unfortunatly for us, we missed out on the first few good days of this July market to offset earlh daily mix mosses. We're running about -.30% behind the core seasonal mixes of Jabs or tmj etc so far.

I have complete faith that the daily seasonal mixes will produce some amazing results long term. It's still early but I kind of get a nice grin when I make an IFT and when it takes effect, that is the day the market swings in my direction. Doesn't always happen, which would be Nostradamus-like if it would, but I believe that there are going to be some amazing days where some of us zig when everyone else zags, and it's in our favor. I wish every EFT was timed perfectly but certainly not realistic. Several IFTs at most a month isn't too much work to stay on top of (set your phone calendar to IFTs) dates. Since it's based on historical data, I think it will give even the most timid TSP investor some confidence that they have credible research to let them know what should give them the best angle at maximizing growth instead of sitting in G fund or Lifecycles.

I did make myself a calendar reminder to consider moving to I on July 19th. Anyone else thinking about it? I am in C now.

Jokerswild wrote:I believe that there are going to be some amazing days where some of us zig when everyone else zags, and it's in our favor. I wish every EFT was timed perfectly but certainly not realistic.

It might pay to look at daily performance over only the recent Bull market period instead of the entire time range of TSP data. I zigged from C to I on July 10th, based on #6911 which had an average gain of more than 4% in July over the past 6 years (2012-2016). No regrets so far.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=6911 ... in66-C-S-I

opg wrote:I did make myself a calendar reminder to consider moving to I on July 19th. Anyone else thinking about it? I am in C now.

Absolutely, because the numbers say it is time to move.

12squared wrote:

Jokerswild wrote:I believe that there are going to be some amazing days where some of us zig when everyone else zags, and it's in our favor. I wish every EFT was timed perfectly but certainly not realistic.

It might pay to look at daily performance over only the recent Bull market period instead of the entire time range of TSP data. I zigged from C to I on July 10th, based on #6911 which had an average gain of more than 4% in July over the past 6 years (2012-2016). No regrets so far.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=6911 ... in66-C-S-I

I posed a similar question before. Would it be better to have different calculators based on bear or bull markets? It would seem the obvious answer is "yes." The reply was, "when do you switch?" If you net several negative monthly returns using a bull calculator (2012-2016), do you then switch to a historical? I saw a thread that proposed sorting the calculator by best monthly return; a feature that would be very welcome.

Foghorn2 wrote:

12squared wrote:

Jokerswild wrote:I believe that there are going to be some amazing days where some of us zig when everyone else zags, and it's in our favor. I wish every EFT was timed perfectly but certainly not realistic.

It might pay to look at daily performance over only the recent Bull market period instead of the entire time range of TSP data. I zigged from C to I on July 10th, based on #6911 which had an average gain of more than 4% in July over the past 6 years (2012-2016). No regrets so far.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=6911 ... in66-C-S-I

If you net several negative monthly returns using a bull calculator (2012-2016), do you then switch to a historical?

You could switch when the long term trend changes from up to down, or is in a steeper sloped up/down period, e.g. 2008-2009. I choose 2012-16 because the huge swings in 2008-10 really skewed the rankings. Combinations that did well after 2011 usually didn't fair as well in 08-10.

opg wrote:I did make myself a calendar reminder to consider moving to I on July 19th. Anyone else thinking about it? I am in C now.

Yup.. doing the same.

Hey hey! Again boys.. it doesn't happen often, but when it does we seem like geniuses for a day and I like it! Haha....

Index seems sluggish this morning, while our shiny new I fund is up a third percent so far.

Yes I know it's like .30% difference and in big picture a non starter, but the calculator working seems pretty neat.