Seriously... do you believe in the Daily?

[mmmmmbeer]

I look at those return numbers, to include this years. Already at 18%+ on the year and averaging 35%+ the last 13-14 years?

Uhhhh... cummon! For reals?! I'm still in somewhat disbelief to be honest. I want to believe, but my mind won't let me go there. 35%? Average?

I mean... at 35% average for 7 years until my MRA my $262k becomes $2.77 million. I take out 7k a month @ 50... keep averaging 35% and at 60 I have $49 million?! W.... T... F... ?!

So yeah... it all seems a bit fantastic. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when I think too much about the daily seasonal actually working as it has. Man I just want half of that 35%.. just give me 17.5% ave a year and I'm jumping for joy.

Thoughts?

[cswift01]

I look at those return numbers, to inclide this years. Already at 18%+ on the year and averaging 35%+ the last 13-14 years?

Uhhhh... cummon! For reals?! I'm still in somewhat disbelief to be honest. I want to believe, but my mind won't let me go there. 35%? Average?

I mean... at 35% average my $262k becomes $2.77 million. I take out 7k a month @ 50... keep averaging 35% and at 60 I have $49 million?! W.... T... F... ?!

So yeah... it all seems a bit fantastic. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when I think to much about the daily seasonal actually working as it has. Man I just want half of that 35%.. just give me 17.5% ave a year and I'm jumping for joy.

Thoughts?

I'm going to give it a couple of years before trying it. I think there is something to be said about past performance, but the future is hard to predict.

Best

Me

[mmmmmbeer]

I teel you what, if I did actually have $49.7 million in my tsp, I'm moving it to Vanguard or something, cause the gov will figure out some way to not give that up!

The "2034 TSP Recovery Act"...

[JJbat150]

Man I just want half of that 35%.. just give me 17.5% ave a year and I'm jumping for joy.

Let's see - the Lifetime funds are returning something like 6% on average, and the CSI/F are returning any where's from 4-11%, so my own personal goal is to realize a 12-15% average utilizing a daily strategy. Anything more is just an added bonus

While I agree that the past can't predict future, it does seem to me that the stock market is driven by certain external factors that do make the daily an attractive way to play the market. Rather then trying to decrypt all those external factors, why not utilize past performance ? As proven the past few weeks with all the BS going on in the world that causing bumps in the market - following a daily strategy seems to have performed better then a seasonal plan that would have left you in the same fund for the entire period.

I have a bunch of co-workers that used to day trade their TSP's until the IFT's were limited and were able to make some serious returns. The daily's are all we have left now to do the same.

[bamafamily]

Could always just hit 1.5%/month and then dump it all in 'G' and wait for the next months signal...?? no use being greedy....

[mmmmmbeer]

Could always just hit 1.5%/month and then dump it all in 'G' and wait for the next months signal...?? no use being greedy....

Truth! Hahaha

[hellsbells]

I mean... at 35% average for 7 years until my MRA my $262k becomes $2.77 million. I take out 7k a month @ 50... keep averaging 35% and at 60 I have $49 million?! W.... T... F... ?!

Having said that, don't forget about your best buds here at TSP Center.

[Jesrich]

I was literally going to ask that same thing. I found out about this site and the daily strategy from a friend at the beginning of July. It seems unbelievable to get those kinds of returns. I started trying it though. So far, when I moved to the fund it suggested, it either made me $ or prevented a loss due to moving it around as recommended.

With that said, has anyone on this site been using the strategy of #7654 or something similar for over a year and have it worked as advertised?

Thanks,
Jes Rich

[mjedlin66]

Jes, I used #24 for all of last year. It worked pretty well. It beat the C and I but lost to the S fund.

But this entire thread can be answered by bama's other thread. You aren't going to average 35% just because a strategy backtests at 35%. You can get a realistic idea by forward testing one of those strategies. Find a strategy that you like for the 2004-2010 time period, and then change the year range to 2011-2017 and see how it has done. That will give you a reasonable estimate of how well it will do in the future.

[onerepmax]

Jes, I used #24 for all of last year. It worked pretty well. It beat the C and I but lost to the S fund.

But this entire thread can be answered by bama's other thread. You aren't going to average 35% just because a strategy backtests at 35%. You can get a realistic idea by forward testing one of those strategies. Find a strategy that you like for the 2004-2010 time period, and then change the year range to 2011-2017 and see how it has done. That will give you a reasonable estimate of how well it will do in the futurw.

Using this process for #7980:

2004 - 2010 = 38.78% CAGR, 891.625 Total Compound
2011 - 2017 = 30.72% CAGR, 552.22% Total Compound

I would also recommend looking 2004 - 2017 and taking out certain years and looking at that average. For example, I take out anything over 40%.

For #7980 that would be 26, 20, 38, 19, 34, 17, 20, 18 respectively, or a 24% average. Who wouldn't love that? That was removing 56, 78, 40, 44, 41, and 41.

Something to think about.

[oldjack]

Very good point, it's a common practice to remove the "outliers".

One critical thing to recognize is that the next 10 years are unlikely to benefit from the trillions in QE that the past 10 years has partied over.

Certainly the returns could be expected to be lower, but I think the likelihood of outperforming the indexes is not diminished by that fact.

[oldjack]

One good thing about the daily strategies is the site also calculates the STD DEV. That gives you some idea of how bumpy a ride you might experience, with low numbers being "less bumpy" in general.

Major kudos to the developer of that site, it's great work.

[oldjack]

This post is for the risk averse who want to try out a Daily. I'll point out to strategy #7331:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7331 ... tby=stddev

This is the one from the 100 with the lowest standard deviation, with the highest mean % and total % return among that 100.

It's listed with a standard deviation of only 3.15 which is bond-like.

It still has returned over 8% a year since 2004 (+3.43% YTD). At that rate over the 14 years it has just shy of tripled the initial investment (195% total return).

Even with that it spends 81% of time in the G Fund and 7% in the F, with that you know volatility will continue to be low.

It makes only 7 IFTs a year.
The lowest annual return was +3.25% in 2005.
It did suffer a -6.4% drawdown in Feb 2009, but overall it handled the financial crisis very well.

[onerepmax]

Very good point, it's a common practice to remove the "outliers".

Yeah, I tried to type outliers, but my computer didn't like it. I'm not a stats guy, and wasn't interested in using the wrong word so I worked around it.

[mjedlin66]

Onerepmax, the idea of looking at least 3-5 years in the past is to pick a strategy based on that timeframe that you can forward test up to 2017.

7980 was selected by looking at the whole data set. It is inherently biased for all years. Instead, look at 2004-2010 and pick a new strategy based on ones that did well over that time frame. Then forward test it to 2017 to see how close the average from 04-10 matches the "forward tested" average of 2010-2017.