Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

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mmmmmbeer
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Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mmmmmbeer »

After taking a deeper look at the core Seasonal Mixes vs. the Daily Mixes, Aug. & Sept. is where the rubber really meets the road.

Most of the Seasonal Mixes call for the F Fund for both months. Here are the comparisons:

F Fund - Aug:

14 of 20 PNR
70.00% PNR
0.79% CAGR
0.79% Average

7 of 10
70.00%
0.64%
0.64%

2 of 5
40.00%
0.10%
0.10%

vs.

Daily #7654 - Aug:

8 of 10
80.00%
2.06% Average

3 of 5
60.00%
0.52% Average

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

F Fund - Sep:

16 of 20
80.00%
0.69%
0.69%

7 of 10
70.00%
0.27%
0.27%

3 of 5
60.00%
0.25%
0.25%

vs.

Daily #7654 - Sept:

7 of 10
70.00%
3.12% Average

3 of 5
60.00%
2.26% Average


So while July maybe close... it's the next couple months should really legitimize this new thing of ours or not.

What ya's think?
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:56 am, edited 9 times in total.
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mjedlin66
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mjedlin66 »

Quick note- My calculator does not calculate CAGR. It calculates average.

This explains CAGR quite well:
http://www.investinganswers.com/financi ... -cagr-1096

(After reading that, I probably SHOULD be using CAGR instead of average...)
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mmmmmbeer »

mjedlin66 wrote:Quick note- My calculator does not calculate CAGR. It calculates average.

This explains CAGR quite well:
http://www.investinganswers.com/financi ... -cagr-1096

(After reading that, I probably SHOULD be using CAGR instead of average...)


Ah my bad, thanks for the clarification. I'll change the OP to average.

Though the CAGR & Average numbers are the same for both charted months so no difference really.
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mjedlin66
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mjedlin66 »

That is interesting. We need Aitrus to chime in on that
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Okay so I redid the OP to reflect oranges to oranges now. PNR & Averages for the last 5 & 10 years. That should show it a little better.
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FilthyFred
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by FilthyFred »

Interesting.

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Aitrus
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by Aitrus »

mjedlin66 wrote:That is interesting. We need Aitrus to chime in on that


Sorry for not answering sooner. It's been a very, very busy month for me, and I'm still not done playing catch-up. Heck, I still haven't posted my review of June's numbers yet in Seasonal Musings. That should tell you how busy I am right now.

Beer's numbers for the F Fund in Aug and Sep are correct. I can't vouch for his program's Aug and Sep numbers, but there's not many years to go on. The 5-year and 10-year timeframes that he and I both use are subject to the furthest swings outside whatever the long term historical norm would be simply due to the scarcity of data used to derive the stats. His 5 and 10 year numbers could be the same, higher than, or lower than, any stats that are derived from data used back to 1988. I'm not pointing out a flaw in his system, just giving a warning about how using small sets of data renders the conclusions for long term potential less solid than they otherwise could be.

He notes that Aug/Sep is where "the rubber really meets the road". I agree. These two months alone account for a huge amount of the losses experienced by the stock market since 1988. Any program that has an investor out of the market for most or all of those months will do better than just buy and hold systems.
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bamablue
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by bamablue »

Great work guys! So... when do you recommend pulling the trigger on the move to F? Many of the top Daily's have a move from C to I coming up around July 19th. I'm going to make the jump from C in a few days, but have wondered if an early move to F might be better.
Last edited by bamablue on Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mmmmmbeer »

I'm also heading to the I tomorrow evening. Staying until the move to the F on Aug. 1.
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Well the rubber sure did meet the road I think folks.

I was in the 7980 for both months and I think we can unequivocally say as far as our 1st year using it goes, the Daily Mix calendars are super legit!

Aug 2017: +3.55%
Vs. F fund: +0.91%

Sept 2017: +2.14%
Vs. F fund: -0.48%

[Rick Flair]Wooooooooo! [/Rick Flair]
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klee
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by klee »

That's great!

and Rick Flair...a wrestler?

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Aug & Sept, where the Rubber Meets the Road..

Post by mmmmmbeer »

klee wrote:That's great!

and Rick Flair...a wrestler?


Wrastlin for sure!
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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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