TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

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mmmmmbeer
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TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

So I recall someone on here mentioning that Vanguard had funds that are pretty much the equivelant of the TSP funds, thus a transition to the Vanguard funds could be somewhat seemless upon retirement.

My question is, has anyone really gamed/simulated running a Jahbulon's New Mix or tmj100's utilizing the actual rates of return for those Vanguard equivelant funds?

I don't know if my big giant brain and 3rd grade education would be able to figure out the nuts and bolts of how to do that, but I'd love to see how close the ROR's are as compared to what we know using TSP funds?

I think that would really give us a better understanding and thus make that transition much less scarey to those of us who will use TSP and a seasonal mix getting to the numbers we want for retirement and take them into something else like a Vanguard from there?

I know it's all about the freedom to chose different funds after that, but honestly I've tried my hand at picking my own stocks.... and I really suck at it.

If I can get close to a million in TSP just doing seasonals I want no business in changing stuff up thats working.

Just really don't like how our fed is starting to use our TSP as a piggy bank for themselves.

What do you guys think?
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ArrieS
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by ArrieS »

For the C Fund VOO, the S Fund VXF, the I fund VEA, and F fund BND.

From a price stability stand point for the G fund, VGSH.

Just my ideas.
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

ArrieS wrote:For the C Fund VOO, the S Fund VXF, the I fund VEA, and F fund BND.

From a price stability stand point for the G fund, VGSH.

Just my ideas.


Thanks ArrieS.. suppose a guy would just have to find their monthly rates of return for each of those funds and plug them into the spreadsheet utilizing the subject seasonal patterns. Are those posted online someplace if you know off hand? I can maybe look manana.
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mjedlin66
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mjedlin66 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
ArrieS wrote:For the C Fund VOO, the S Fund VXF, the I fund VEA, and F fund BND.

From a price stability stand point for the G fund, VGSH.

Just my ideas.


Thanks ArrieS.. suppose a guy wou ld just jave to find their monthly rates of return for each ofbthose funds and plug them into the spredsheet utilizing the subject seasonal patterns. Are those posted online someplace ifbyou know off hand? I can mayne look manana.


Hmm. Seasonal calculator for non-TSP funds. I bet that already exists somewhere.
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Aitrus
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by Aitrus »

mjedlin66 wrote:
Hmm. Seasonal calculator for non-TSP funds. I bet that already exists somewhere.


I'm not sure, MJ. I've spent quite a bit of time looking for such a creature in the past, but it's proved quite elusive.
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Alrighty.. using ArrieS's suggested funds, I found the monthly returns for each back to 2013 anyway.
I plugged the Vanguard funds into the tmj100's seasonal mix. Obviously we'd need a much bigger sampling, but initially it looks pretty promising below I think?

What say you fine folks?
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Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Fri Aug 04, 2017 11:45 am, edited 3 times in total.
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wisepierre
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by wisepierre »

Just need to compare it over the same period to the TSP mmmmmbeer

EDIT: Somehow this comment warranted a negative rep point. Okay.
Last edited by wisepierre on Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

wisepierre wrote:Just need to compare it over the same period to the TSP mmmmmbeer


Best I can do for now on my cell... here's the tmj100 mix using traditional TSP funds for the same timeframe

Image

Pretty comparable I think. Traditional tsp has a slight edge.. but of course the Vanguard come with so many less strings attached.
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Cpayne09
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by Cpayne09 »

I have my sister, cousin, and gf doing the seasonal using those ETFs through Vanguard. The hard part is beating it into their heads to make the transfers on schedule...

I also manage my mom's 401k the same as I do my TSP since i'll know she'll never change it to anything but the base fund.

ron.logan
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by ron.logan »

ArrieS wrote:For the C Fund VOO, the S Fund VXF, the I fund VEA, and F fund BND.

From a price stability stand point for the G fund, VGSH.

Just my ideas.


Don't want to side track the thread, just a quick question. Does anyone have the Fidelity equivalent of the TSP funds like ArrieS shows for Vanguard?

Thanks in advance

mmmmmbeer
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Cpayne09 wrote:I have my sister, cousin, and gf doing the seasonal using those ETFs through Vanguard. The hard part is beating it into their heads to make the transfers on schedule...

I also manage my mom's 401k the same as I do my TSP since i'll know she'll never change it to anything but the base fund.


How long have you been helpimg them follow seasonal outside tsp? How's it going? Numbers consistant?

Thanks for sharing!
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mmmmmbeer
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Well.. putting my money where my mouth is. I have about 13k in a USAAcmoney market as my emergency fund. Took 10k of it and paid the $8.95 to buy $10,200 of VOO today.

UP $3.10 by COB today! Haha... naw really though.. instead of just sitting there if I can use these Vanguard ETF's to do a seasonal with some of my savings.... why not see if I can get 10%+ and watch my savings actually grow?

I'll let you's know how it goes.
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Timber82
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by Timber82 »

MMMBeer, subbing this thread, Could you use the following below and grab the same detail, or tell me what level of difficulty it was for you to get the data to build the sheet you posted a pic of? Ill preface that I am sort of my offices "go-to" guy for excel so I'm not an expert but quite proficient :)

Instead of ETF's I went the MUTF route (admiral class) if you could either give me a few words where you got your data I may be able to duplicate your spreadsheet for these funds or if its super simple for you would you mind doing that for me? I am only interested in the funds in Bold for now (Admiral class MUTF). I did some comparisons between all the shares listed for the equivalency and usually the ADM class had a small % higher.

FYI someone asked about fidelity, if you google "DIY TSP" the article by Morningstar lists a few equivalent funds and some of them include Fidelity.

P.S. MMMBeer your image comparing the funds to TMJ mix is not showing up its just an X
Last edited by Timber82 on Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Yeah too many folks hitting the pic for my free hosting site! Haha..

So what I did was go on the Morning Star website and got the monthly rates of return for each fund, ie VOO (S&P 500 Index to replace the C fund). Having those, I plugged them into the excel spreadsheet I had for the TMJ100... replacing each tsp fund with its closest equivelant.

If you give PM me your email I'll send you the workbook I use, albeit I didn't create the origional as Aitrus generously shared it with me.

I would assume all you'd have to do is go to my Vanguard tab... plug your funds in and it should be gold.

Unfortunately the furthest I could go back on morningstar was 5 years, but the numbers looked real good as you can see.

Oh also the workbook will have the origional tmj100 tab so you can see the difference in rates of return.
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Timber82
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Re: TSP vs. Vanguard IRA equivelants in Seasonal Mixes

Post by Timber82 »

I just clarified this through Vanguard on their FB page, if you are following the Seasonal strategy and therefore moving 100% of your account on certain dates, you will need to always make your trade (sell - to - buy) 1 day in advance.

So long as your place your order by 4PM on a trading day Vanguard will sell your shares that day then the next trading day the new shares will be purchased. So any orders (buy or Sell) placed after 4pm will have to wait until the close price of the next trading day similar to TSP 12noon deadline.

I missed out on roughly .19% profit because of this 1 day delay I was not aware of (F-Fund equivalent VBTLX).


Edit @ 430pm 8/23
Disregard the above quotes information, I misunderstood the person and the loss of potential profit was my own fault! As long as you place your order by 4PM on a trading day the sell and buy will execute, if a non-trading day or after 4pm you will have to wait until the closing price of the next trade day.

I am also attaching a spreadsheet I have up of TSP funds and what I feel are their respective Vanguard counterparts.
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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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