TSP Center

Why are 89% of today's interfund transfer requests switching to the S fund ?

It's a knee jerk reaction to somebody thinking they have a better strategy than the Seasonal Strategy. People tend to let emotions take over and then they do weird things. If you go and look at all of either the most followed people or the people with the largest balance, all but one guy (Tomanyiron) has stayed with their Seasonal Strategy they use. Trying to time when to use your second IFT is useless. Don't let this fool you and stick with your own or whatever strategy you use.

It is interesting to see that almost all of these accounts are only about one year old.

new to the site. how can you tell 89% are going to S fund? i've noticed that the seasonal allocations on the opening page hadn't been updated in years. there is metion above about what appears to be personal seasonal allocations. are there examples of these?

see http://tspcenter.com/leaderBoard.php?view=Pending Note: it changes as people input their IFTs during the day

Regularguy wrote:It is interesting to see that almost all of these accounts are only about one year old.

Typical with any hobby, trade, etc.. The new user thinks they know a better way. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I'm a new user as well, but not a rookie investor. I was once the hare, now I'm a tortoise.

I have to Thank Timboslice, (his/her LOL) commentary from a few years back made me review and adopt the seasonal strategy.

TimboSlice wrote:It's a knee jerk reaction to somebody thinking they have a better strategy than the Seasonal Strategy. People tend to let emotions take over and then they do weird things. If you go and look at all of either the most followed people or the people with the largest balance, all but one guy (Tomanyiron) has stayed with their Seasonal Strategy they use. Trying to time when to use your second IFT is useless. Don't let this fool you and stick with your own or whatever strategy you use.

Who's seasonal strategy do you follow?

I can't argue with your results over the previous five years; however, I did read a post you wrote not too long ago (sometime in the past few months) in which you wrote, "I have no idea what I'm doing." (paraphrased of course).

Maybe you posted your seasonal strategy and I missed it. I recall seeing a post of multiple seasonal strategies several months back but not one specifically attributed to you.

LONEWOLF wrote:Why are 89% of today's interfund transfer requests switching to the S fund ?

Looks like they are following the "The Profit". Is this The Profit, of old, rejoined?

I have to thank TimboSlice and Altrus for my awakening. I follow Timbo's seasonal and read all of Altrus's posts. Enlightenment comes with lack of emotion and panic and solid, consistent performance. I look at the past performance of those making mid month moves and they are usually poor long term performers... just trying to time the market based on partial information. I'm glad I discovered this website and those who have a methodical plan vs. knee jerk reactions. Thank you Timbo and Altrus!!!!!!

md2018 wrote:

LONEWOLF wrote:Why are 89% of today's interfund transfer requests switching to the S fund ?

Looks like they are following the "The Profit". Is this The Profit, of old, rejoined?

I thought they were following JoeMoeMoe.

It's a good question. Currently S Fund is underperforming C and I this month and year. Possibly the big day it had on Wed 7/19 got that 89%'s attention? MAYBE, somebody from this IFT class can come on here and share with us WHY and then get some rep points as a consolation prize.

Navig8tor, I created my own seasonal strategy. I don't follow anyone but myself. It was an experiment that I tried a few years ago and it worked, so I just stuck with it. I pay zero attention to the market and I just follow the TSP funds from my phone. I have 20 years to go so I can gamble all I want and have time to make it back if I lose it. I let emotions control my decision once and I got burnt. I truly have no idea what I'm doing but it works and I will still run my strategy until otherwise. I can't post my strategy because it's a floating strategy. It can change from time to time, but I only change it once a month so it reflects the first trading day of the month. This year my strategy changed just for one month other than that it's the same as last year. So it can't be posted because it's not consistent every year. The tmj100 strategy was first named after me but I asked it not to be because it's not my every year strategy. My account would not mirror it and I didn't want anyone to get confused.

TimboSlice wrote:It's a knee jerk reaction to somebody thinking they have a better strategy than the Seasonal Strategy. People tend to let emotions take over and then they do weird things. If you go and look at all of either the most followed people or the people with the largest balance, all but one guy (Tomanyiron) has stayed with their Seasonal Strategy they use. Trying to time when to use your second IFT is useless. Don't let this fool you and stick with your own or whatever strategy you use.

They did exactly like you recommended a few months ago: Following someone else's learned strategy until such time as they develop their own...just like if Timbo makes a move, 500 people will get a notification and immediatly follow the move.

FWIW, I follow seasonal, unless there is an opportunity to sell-high/buy-low. Like BREXIT happens-and there was no sound reason that C or S should've tanked, and I'm in F, I'll bounce to C until it bounces back, then go right back to seasonal. (LongTerm=Follow Seasonal; ShortTerm=React To Current Events)

That's smart jamoses...

I tell people all the time (not on tspcenter) that seasonal is the way to go but you have to pay attention to other determining factors as well, that can create short term high profit scenarios.

I watch current events daily and most of it is just minutia spinning out there for the emotional traders to freak out about, and make a small profit here or there, daytraders if you will.

The big ones like Brexit are the ones that I particularly pay attention for and too! That's where some serious percentages can be made.

All other times, Seasonality rules!