2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

[ArrieS]

Arries,

Yes, I know that context is everything, and yes she said those words. She was stating that the bill needs to be passed so that the American people could see what was good about the bill "away fog of controversy". But what she failed to realize is that there was no "fog of controversy". In other words, she was in effect saying "This bill is a good thing. You'll see once we pass it, so let's pass it already!" Democrats said that the bill was good and pointed out the good parts. Critics said that it was bad and pointed out the bad parts. There's no fog of controversy there. Turns out the critics were right.

Aitrus,

Let me get this right. I tell you, that your quote by itself is taking her out of context. Then you feel the need to tell me I know it's taking her out of context, and here's how. You are basically saying what I told you, right back at me. This must be a very annoying habit you have in conversations, has anyone ever told you that?

Turns out the critics were right.

Because the critics were in power to make it turn out to be right. ACA needs changes and fixes. That was admitted so much by Nancy Pelosi in the speech. We need to see what works and then fix what doesn't. Republicans have been in power in Congress and instead of fixing parts, they didn't.

it's collapsing under it's own weight.

Case in point, the Department of Homeland security was created November 25, 2002 with the Homeland Security Act of 2002. Since it was created it has been amended and changed 150 times in 15 years. That is ten changes a year on average. Because otherwise, it would have collapsed under its own weight. It was changed so many times, what's wrong? Can't Republicans get a law perfect the first time?

No major piece of legislation ever goes unchanged. Republicans blocked and prevented any such change to happen. All legislation if passed as is and not allowed to be changed to fix what is wrong will fail. Your argument is false because that is the story of every major law. False argument.

[MrSnrub]

mjedlin66 the Highcharts look great!!

[mmmmmbeer]

Gold Five: Stay on target.

[repinda808]

Actually you have brought up a very important issue. How are the Seasonals doing this year? Has anyone, besides tomanyiron, thought about setting up a chart showing daily, 5day,monthly, 3month, 6month performance of all the Seasonals?

Crondanet,

I've been following a Seasonal Strategy since Feb and I've hit my annual goal already. I've got to admit that when I first joined this site, I was all about timing the market. I still think there's valid reasoning for it (basically, buying dips and selling highs), but have come to the conclusion that in order to do it right, you'd need to spend way more time than I have available at this time. Seasonal has afforded me a way to beat buy and hold (which is I did, holding in the C Fund, the past 2 years), with very little time devoted to "reading the tea leaves". I get if you're not a believer. But I'd say most seasonal investors are satisfied with the performance of their accounts this year.

[ksmoly04]

As of yesterday, I'm at roughly +9.25% in my real TSP account, easily the best performance I've had since I became a fed in 2010. The seasonal I'm following works--I have deviated twice and it cost me additional gains, but the fact that I'm within shouting distance of my year-end goal and its only August is a testament to the soundness of the seasonal strategy.

Many thanks to Aitrus and you all who have developed the various strategies and keep a lively discussion here. I've learned a ton since I joined last October.

[mmmmmbeer]

As of yesterday, I'm at roughly +9.25% in my real TSP account, easily the best performance I've had since I became a fed in 2010. The seasonal I'm following works--I have deviated twice and it cost me additional gains, but the fact that I'm within shouting distance of my year-end goal and its only August is a testament to the soundness of the seasonal strategy.

Many thanks to Aitrus and you all who have developed the various strategies and keep a lively discussion here. I've learned a ton since I joined last October.

Absolutely hail Aitrus!

[repinda808]

Okay, but which one? That's why I am suggesting a chart of all the Seasonals to see which one is best this year.

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214&start=195

Aitrus clearly shows the performance of each mix, year to date, each month. Just for clarification, the one with the highest number is outperforming the others...

[mmmmmbeer]

Okay, but which one? That's why I am suggesting a chart of all the Seasonals to see which one is best this year.

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214&start=195

Aitrus clearly shows the performance of each mix, year to date, each month. Just for clarification, the one with the highest number is outperforming the others...

Tmj100.. and Dougs Mix...

[repinda808]

mmmmmbeer take a look at what the Top 5 Leaders are invested in and when they last made an IFT. Are any in the F Fund, and thus following the Seasonal?

And last year, this year's leaders who are buy and holding I fund made 2.10%. G fund buy and holders were barely beat at 1.82%. F fund was 2.91%. C and S were both in the double digits, though, so I'm thinking that seasonal beat I fund buy and hold by a large margin last year.

There's definite ebbs and flows, and every fund will have it's year in the sun. This may be one of those for I.

[repinda808]

mmmmmbeer take a look at what the Top 5 Leaders are invested in and when they last made an IFT. Are any in the F Fund, and thus following the Seasonal?

Hey man that's cool... the top guys are riding the I Fund. I'm cool with following my plan. There's really no way I'd be sitting in the I fund with 100% of my real money since March for sure.

I personally don't hold much stock in the fantasy tsp numbers. That's great you can get a pretend 19% return. If you follow that with your real money, wow, you've got way more stones than me. I don't trust much my friend... and I'll let you know the I fund is one of those things I don't trust. My I fund from 2015 is waving at me with 15k in losses.... =(

I resemble that remark...lol

I'm one of the few that play the game the way my real money is allocated. So I make both changes at the same time every time. The only difference will be if my contributions are going into a different fund, but I've switched that to match as well, so from here forward, it should be spot on.

[SmokingGun]

Been an odd year that's 4 sure.

[Travis1984]

Been an odd year that's 4 sure.

I think that's what makes the Daily so appealing to me. Bull or Bear, it's consistent. Odd year? Who cares, crush it.

Lowest year since 2004=14%. Insanity.

[14K]

Good point.

[Tomanyiron]

Actually you have brought up a very important issue. How are the Seasonals doing this year? Has anyone, besides tomanyiron, thought about setting up a chart showing daily, 5day,monthly, 3month, 6month performance of all the Seasonals?

Cron, there is no way for me to disprove that seasonally works. It works very well and has worked well for a long time. Trying to figure out which year it may not work "too" good, would be like me trying to predict what day the first snow will come this winter.

The timing of the market that I attempt, is as much a hobby, as it is a strategy. It’s an ongoing puzzle solving pastime. A search for clues to a mystery. I was born with the “reinvent the wheel” problem. My house is full of gadgets.

That had some benefits. On my job, I was known as a person, when called to fix something, I fixed it so good, it did not need fixing again for a long time. That made me some friends, but a lot of enemies, because it made everyone who had fixed it before look dumb. I’m the one looking dumb now, with this.