2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

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jdunn382
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Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 10:58 am

2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by jdunn382 »

2017 has yet to have a 5% correction in the market this year. This is a rare feat. I like the seasonal strategy but I feel I need to abandon it for the rest of this year. There is an occasional year where the corrections just don't come and the market continues to power forward. I plan to soon move my funds completely between the C,S,I funds for the remainder of the year before reverting back to the seasonal strategy in 2018.

I would like to see what others thoughts and opinions are on this year's trend.

mmmmmbeer
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Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Gold Leader: It's no good, I can't maneuver!

Gold Five: Stay on target.

Gold Leader: We're too close!

Gold Five: Stay on target!

Gold Leader: [shouts] Loosen up!

[he too is picked off by Vader and Company; Gold Five tries to escape but is fatally winged]

Gold Five: Gold Five to Red leader, lost Tiree, lost Dutch.

Red Leader: I copy, Gold Leader.

Gold Five: They came from... behind!


Sticking with my plan... that's why they call it a plan. :)

Good luck though bro.. I'll be all sad when I see you making it rain wit yo phat stacks. :(
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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Longstreet
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Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:39 am

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Longstreet »

Lol, I approve re: Gold Leader.

Han: Great shot kid, that was one in a million! (hopefully what we'll be hearing come end of the year)

Chulke
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Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Chulke »

LoL!!! Love it!!

But you don't know the power of the darkside!


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

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Scarfinger
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Scarfinger »

jdunn382 wrote:2017 has yet to have a 5% correction in the market this year. This is a rare feat. I like the seasonal strategy but I feel I need to abandon it for the rest of this year. There is an occasional year where the corrections just don't come and the market continues to power forward. I plan to soon move my funds completely between the C,S,I funds for the remainder of the year before reverting back to the seasonal strategy in 2018.

I would like to see what others thoughts and opinions are on this year's trend.


I wouldn't total abandon the seasonal plan. But, if you wanted more exposure to equities. maybe try the daily seasonal plan. For example:

Calculator #7653
Month
1st IFT 2nd IFT 3rd IFT (G Only)
January: F fund on 1st trading day S fund on 12th trading day Don't Return to G
February: F fund on 12th trading day S fund on 15th trading day Return to G on 18th of Feb
March: S fund on 6th trading day I fund on last trading day Don't Return to G
April: F fund on 2nd trading day I fund on 5th trading day Don't Return to G
May: F fund on 2nd trading day S fund on 14th trading day Return to G on 20th day
June: F fund on 8th trading day I fund on 19th trading day Return to G on last day
July: C fund on 3rd trading day I fund on 12th trading day don't Return to G
August: F fund on 1st trading day S fund on 17th trading day Don't Return to G
September: F fund on 11th trading day I fund on 16th trading day Return to G on 18th day

October: S fund on 7th trading day C fund on 15th trading day Don't Return to G
November: G fund on 6th trading day S fund on 13th trading day Return to G on last day
December: S fund on 1st trading day I fund on 15th trading day Don't Return to G
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Snapdragon
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Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Snapdragon »

daily seasonal or be very, very, very careful September and October. Then buy the sh*t out of it when we do get that dip. Good dip is coming. Congress sucks at doing their job, no budget for 2018, no tax reform, no healthcare reform, debt ceiling......

crondanet5
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Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by crondanet5 »

Yeah! Bring back the Democrats. They get things passed.

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ArrieS
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Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by ArrieS »

Past performance is no indicator of future performance.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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Aitrus
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Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Aitrus »

Bring back the democrats. They get things passed.


Except when they don't. And then there's the issue of whether or not what they pass is good for the country or not, so then it becomes a question not of whether they can get things passed, but whether they should.

Example: "We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it" - Nancy Pelosi, 2010, in reference to the Affordable Care Act.

However, everything I just said can be applied to the Republicans as well. Except for the quote - that's 100% Democrat.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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ArrieS
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Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by ArrieS »

Aitrus wrote:Except for the quote - that's 100% Democrat.


http://www.snopes.com/pelosi-healthcare ... -is-in-it/

Context is everything. It's also a 100% Republican fabrication as to what Nancy Pelosi was talking about.

P.S. Thanks for the points Aitrus, but I was talking about stock market performance this year. Not politics.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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Scarfinger
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Scarfinger »

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says President Donald Trump deserves "very little" credit for the market being at record highs.

"The current president is getting virtually nothing done. He's very noisy about it. The nothing getting done is the consistent theme," Gundlach said Tuesday on CNBC's "Halftime Report."

"The market's been going up with nothing getting done. So I don't think the president's performance has much to do with where the stock market valuation is today."

The market likes consistency. :lol:
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by mmmmmbeer »

This thread is starting to make me feel like I should loan money to close personal friends and family. That always turns out well too. :D
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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Aitrus
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Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Aitrus »

Arries,

Yes, I know that context is everything, and yes she said those words. She was stating that the bill needs to be passed so that the American people could see what was good about the bill "away fog of controversy". But what she failed to realize is that there was no "fog of controversy". In other words, she was in effect saying "This bill is a good thing. You'll see once we pass it, so let's pass it already!" Democrats said that the bill was good and pointed out the good parts. Critics said that it was bad and pointed out the bad parts. There's no fog of controversy there. Turns out the critics were right.

Even seen in context the bill was still bad, as we've amply seen since it came fully into effect. There isn't a single Democrat that I know of that believes that Obamacare can be saved as is - it's collapsing under it's own weight.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by crondanet5 »

Actually you have brought up a very important issue. How are the Seasonals doing this year? Has anyone, besides tomanyiron, thought about setting up a chart showing daily, 5day,monthly, 3month, 6month performance of all the Seasonals?

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Aitrus
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Re: 2017 has been an outlier from the Seasonal strategy

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonals are by and large doing well. The most popular ones will likely hit double digits before the end of the year. I haven't thought about doing a rolling chart showing daily, 5 day, etc. First time I've heard of somebody asking for it. I would guess it would take a lot of work, which I don't have time for.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
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I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
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