Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

[managingts]

I just recently stumbled on 7653 strategy and am completely confused.

On the TSP seasonal calculator for 7653, it states there 1st IFT. For example, this September, the 1st IFT is on 11th. Does that mean that the IFT needs to be done before 12noon on the 11th or needs to be done 12 noon on the 10th so the fund for the 11th is F?

I hope I'm not confusing you guys.

Thanks.

[Ofsthun01]

It says the September IFT is on the 11th trading day. Which for September is the 18th. Submit your IFT before noon on the 18th to be in the specific fund by the next business day. Look at the color coded calendar under the returns to get a better understanding.

[mmmmmbeer]

It says the September IFT is on the 11th trading day. Which for September is the 18th. Submit your IFT before noon on the 18th to be in the specific fund by the next business day. Look at the color coded calendar under the returns to get a better understanding.

Yup what this guy said. The calendars at the bottom are probably the easiest as it gives a visual depiction of the IFTs.

[bamablue]

Just remember... weekends and non-trading days (federal holidays) are not counted as 'business days.' There are a couple of wildcard days when the markets close early or there's a federal holiday (Columbus Day) when markets are open. Here's a link with all of the market closings through 2019...

LINK: https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars

[technoir]

I am late to this as well. What is the rational/algorithm for this strategy?

[bamablue]

I am late to this as well. What is the rational/algorithm for this strategy?

It's a historical record of actuals going back to 2004. Depending on your perspective, this is using past performance as a predictor. Nothing is perfect -- we'd all be rich. Remember, that past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results...

[technoir]

So the trade days are based on 2004 to present historical best trade days in each month? Are the trade days the same for each month, ie all Septembers the trades are the same days and same trades?

[Travis1984]

So the trade days are based on 2004 to present historical best trade days in each month? Are the trade days the same for each month, ie all Septembers the trades are the same days and same trades?

Yup, it's a set it and forget it. It's historical performance (and continued success this year) is nearly to good to be true. But if 13.7% is the worst year since 2004, and I'm only in the CSI funds 60% of the time. Those are some numbers I am confident putting my real retirement against. (And do)

[mjedlin66]

So the trade days are based on 2004 to present historical best trade days in each month? Are the trade days the same for each month, ie all Septembers the trades are the same days and same trades?

Same trading day, not the same calendar day. If September starts on a Monday, then the 18th trading day will be different than a September that starts on Friday. Also, Easter can fall in two different months, so it affects how many trading days those months have from year to year.

[klausvonbg]

So the trade days are based on 2004 to present historical best trade days in each month? Are the trade days the same for each month, ie all Septembers the trades are the same days and same trades?

Yup, it's a set it and forget it. It's historical performance (and continued success this year) is nearly to good to be true. But if 13.7% is the worst year since 2004, and I'm only in the CSI funds 60% of the time. Those are some numbers I am confident putting my real retirement against. (And do)

Just trying to see if I'm following same 7653 strategy. Wasnt 2016 at 10.67 worst performance for this strategy?

[mmmmmbeer]

So the trade days are based on 2004 to present historical best trade days in each month? Are the trade days the same for each month, ie all Septembers the trades are the same days and same trades?

Yup, it's a set it and forget it. It's historical performance (and continued success this year) is nearly to good to be true. But if 13.7% is the worst year since 2004, and I'm only in the CSI funds 60% of the time. Those are some numbers I am confident putting my real retirement against. (And do)

Just trying to see if I'm following same 7653 strategy. Wasnt 2016 at 10.67 worst performance for this strategy?

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7653&years=04-17

Uhhh 2016 was 33.66%

[Midway]

Nope, 7653 got 33.66% for 2016
Try this: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7653&years=04-17

[Octjan2]

How did this strategy (7653) get 76.21% return in 2008? Wasn't that the financial crisis when stocks dropped almost 50%??? Sounds impossible.

[mmmmmbeer]

How did this strategy (7653) get 76.21% return in 2008? Wasn't that the financial crisis when stocks dropped almost 50%??? Sounds impossible.

Out of the market on the down days. Same way it could get 33% last year when the market was half that.

[Octjan2]

Lol, almost every day was a bad day in the latter part of 2008.