Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

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Do you follow a Daily Seasonal strategy with your real TSP?

Yes.
92
15%
No, but I plan to soon.
21
4%
No, but thinking about it.
44
7%
Absolutely Not, not enough data/time to back them up.
442
74%
 
Total votes: 599

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

My answer is Yes, and I have been since June 2017. I have been essentially following "the leader" whichever is in place, but after the new tspcalc.com v2, I believe I'm going to stick with #7980 for the forseeable future.

Results so far:

June '17: -0.06%
July '17: 2.38%
Aug '17: 1.10% (thus far)

Each month so far has been ahead of the top traditional Monthly Seasonals.

***edit*** fixed my years, thanks Trav!
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:59 am, edited 4 times in total.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal wuth your real TSP?

Post by Travis1984 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:My answer is Yes, and I have been since June 2016. I have been essentially following "the leader" whichever is in place, but after the new tspcalc.com v2, I believe I'm going to stick with #7980 for the forseeable future.

Results so far:

June '16: -0.06%
July '16: 2.38%
Aug '16: 1.10% (thus far)

Each month so far has been ahead of the top traditional Monthly Seasonals.


I assume you mean 2017?

I also am following with my Real TSP. And soon so happily! Here's to hoping for many TSPcenter members retiring will millions instead of thousands!
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

kdfwr310
Posts: 25
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:32 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by kdfwr310 »

I'm following, and will be moving my wife's TSP (separated from govt four years ago) into the plan as well. Kinda hard to argue with the previous success. If there is an argument, I haven't seen it yet.

greengrass
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:28 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by greengrass »

My answer is sometimes... I'm lazy

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Wow.. lots of votes so far.. and the vast majority for no, because of the lack of time we've known about it and only 13 years to support it. It makes sense folks feel that way for sure.

It does somewhat seem like some sort of magic! Curious if the Daily Seasonal folks have really good success for a given timeframe if that will convince folks. What would that number be? 6 months? A year? Five years? I suppose everyone has a trust threshhold.

By golly I'll sell it door to door if this thing proves true for the next 5 years! Shoot.. even half true. I'll take 15% avg in a heartbeat!
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Midway
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by Midway »

I have one toe in. Waiting to see if the water is warm or scalding.

User avatar
Snapdragon
Posts: 247
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by Snapdragon »

It is part of my decision making process. I have 7653 and 8706 printed out

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Snapdragon wrote:It is part of my decision making process. I have 7653 and 8706 printed out


Throw #7980 in your mix. See how it compares to those two. Standard deviation is really low = much more stable imho. Also only 58% market exposure vs 61%
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Regularguy
Posts: 191
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:39 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by Regularguy »

I have followed jahbulons basic for a few years. Haven't fully committed to adding that second trade per month yet.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Regularguy wrote:I have followed jahbulons basic for a few years. Haven't fully committed to adding that second trade per month yet.


I know right? It's the exact same concept with one more IFT a month, except for the few months you run the last few days for the stronghold in the G.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

gclapper
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:04 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by gclapper »

I have been watching it but I don't think I will be jumping into the daily any time soon. There are several factors for me with the daily. One is it has a smaller pool of data and trading days can slide from year to year. Also, I was not able to replicate the data analysis myself using Excel. So down the line if the daily web site disappears, then I would need to figure it out or go back to the monthly (which I can do with Excel).

Cpt. Pile
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by Cpt. Pile »

Has anyone else double checked the math on the daily seasonal charts? I've added up the monthly totals for several different charts and keep getting different numbers than what the printed total is.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Cpt. Pile wrote:Has anyone else double checked the math on the daily seasonal charts? I've added up the monthly totals for several different charts and keep getting different numbers than what the printed total is.


Are you just adding them up or are you using the Negative Compounding Aitrus speaks too in the 2017 Seasonal Musings thread?
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Cpt. Pile
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by Cpt. Pile »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
Cpt. Pile wrote:Has anyone else double checked the math on the daily seasonal charts? I've added up the monthly totals for several different charts and keep getting different numbers than what the printed total is.


Are you just adding them up or are you using the Negative Compounding Aitrus speaks too in the 2017 Seasonal Musings thread?



I was just adding them up and didn't realize there was more to it than that.....I'll check out the 2017 Seasonal Musings thread. Thanks!

tyjones
Posts: 8
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:57 am

Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?

Post by tyjones »

Hey all, is the Jahbulon's Basic the one where you just make 6 IFT's a year?
Thanks!

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