Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Moderator: Aitrus
Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
My answer is Yes, and I have been since June 2017. I have been essentially following "the leader" whichever is in place, but after the new tspcalc.com v2, I believe I'm going to stick with #7980 for the forseeable future.
Results so far:
June '17: -0.06%
July '17: 2.38%
Aug '17: 1.10% (thus far)
Each month so far has been ahead of the top traditional Monthly Seasonals.
***edit*** fixed my years, thanks Trav!
Results so far:
June '17: -0.06%
July '17: 2.38%
Aug '17: 1.10% (thus far)
Each month so far has been ahead of the top traditional Monthly Seasonals.
***edit*** fixed my years, thanks Trav!
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:59 am, edited 4 times in total.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
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Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal wuth your real TSP?
mmmmmbeer wrote:My answer is Yes, and I have been since June 2016. I have been essentially following "the leader" whichever is in place, but after the new tspcalc.com v2, I believe I'm going to stick with #7980 for the forseeable future.
Results so far:
June '16: -0.06%
July '16: 2.38%
Aug '16: 1.10% (thus far)
Each month so far has been ahead of the top traditional Monthly Seasonals.
I assume you mean 2017?
I also am following with my Real TSP. And soon so happily! Here's to hoping for many TSPcenter members retiring will millions instead of thousands!
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
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Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
I'm following, and will be moving my wife's TSP (separated from govt four years ago) into the plan as well. Kinda hard to argue with the previous success. If there is an argument, I haven't seen it yet.
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Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
My answer is sometimes... I'm lazy
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Wow.. lots of votes so far.. and the vast majority for no, because of the lack of time we've known about it and only 13 years to support it. It makes sense folks feel that way for sure.
It does somewhat seem like some sort of magic! Curious if the Daily Seasonal folks have really good success for a given timeframe if that will convince folks. What would that number be? 6 months? A year? Five years? I suppose everyone has a trust threshhold.
By golly I'll sell it door to door if this thing proves true for the next 5 years! Shoot.. even half true. I'll take 15% avg in a heartbeat!
It does somewhat seem like some sort of magic! Curious if the Daily Seasonal folks have really good success for a given timeframe if that will convince folks. What would that number be? 6 months? A year? Five years? I suppose everyone has a trust threshhold.
By golly I'll sell it door to door if this thing proves true for the next 5 years! Shoot.. even half true. I'll take 15% avg in a heartbeat!
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
I have one toe in. Waiting to see if the water is warm or scalding.
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Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
It is part of my decision making process. I have 7653 and 8706 printed out
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Snapdragon wrote:It is part of my decision making process. I have 7653 and 8706 printed out
Throw #7980 in your mix. See how it compares to those two. Standard deviation is really low = much more stable imho. Also only 58% market exposure vs 61%
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
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Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
I have followed jahbulons basic for a few years. Haven't fully committed to adding that second trade per month yet.
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Regularguy wrote:I have followed jahbulons basic for a few years. Haven't fully committed to adding that second trade per month yet.
I know right? It's the exact same concept with one more IFT a month, except for the few months you run the last few days for the stronghold in the G.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
I have been watching it but I don't think I will be jumping into the daily any time soon. There are several factors for me with the daily. One is it has a smaller pool of data and trading days can slide from year to year. Also, I was not able to replicate the data analysis myself using Excel. So down the line if the daily web site disappears, then I would need to figure it out or go back to the monthly (which I can do with Excel).
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Has anyone else double checked the math on the daily seasonal charts? I've added up the monthly totals for several different charts and keep getting different numbers than what the printed total is.
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Cpt. Pile wrote:Has anyone else double checked the math on the daily seasonal charts? I've added up the monthly totals for several different charts and keep getting different numbers than what the printed total is.
Are you just adding them up or are you using the Negative Compounding Aitrus speaks too in the 2017 Seasonal Musings thread?
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
mmmmmbeer wrote:Cpt. Pile wrote:Has anyone else double checked the math on the daily seasonal charts? I've added up the monthly totals for several different charts and keep getting different numbers than what the printed total is.
Are you just adding them up or are you using the Negative Compounding Aitrus speaks too in the 2017 Seasonal Musings thread?
I was just adding them up and didn't realize there was more to it than that.....I'll check out the 2017 Seasonal Musings thread. Thanks!
Re: Do you follow the Daily Seasonal with your real TSP?
Hey all, is the Jahbulon's Basic the one where you just make 6 IFT's a year?
Thanks!
Thanks!
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