Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Moderator: Aitrus
- Scarfinger
- Posts: 810
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am
Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.
You could argue for and against this move several ways.
Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.
Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?
I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.
You could argue for and against this move several ways.
Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.
Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?
I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation ofTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Scarfinger wrote:I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.
You could argue for and against this move several ways.
Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.
Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?
I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.
My first IFT (F fund) under this strategy was August 1st. I've been stressing about the decision to IFT into the S fund all night. I keep thinking there is a bigger dip on the way, so why not wait. However, the 4-5% dip we've seen this month may have been it.?
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!
Less Government, More Freedom!
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- Posts: 102
- Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
harpole wrote:Scarfinger wrote:I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.
You could argue for and against this move several ways.
Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.
Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?
I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.
My first IFT (F fund) under this strategy was August 1st. I've been stressing about the decision to IFT into the S fund all night. I keep thinking there is a bigger dip on the way, so why not wait. However, the 4-5% dip we've seen this month may have been it.?
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
Yoda
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Travis1984 wrote:
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
HAHAHAHA!!! Dude this is great! You need to make this your new sig.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
I am 37 and have a long time until retirement. Could be a game changer in the long run. Count me in for Daily Seasonal.
All in with 7980.
-
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
mmmmmbeer wrote:Travis1984 wrote:
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
HAHAHAHA!!! Dude this is great! You need to make this your new sig.
I'm actually considering only responding with Yoda quotes. They have one for nearly every situation!
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
Yoda
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Yep, that's getting added to my website quotes.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Moving to S-fund today as well with the rest of the gang!
F-Fund got me some good numbers my few weeks in it.
F-Fund got me some good numbers my few weeks in it.
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Yes! I moved from the Monthly Seasonal (G-Clapper's M-3 Mix) to the daily seasonal in July. Who knows what will happen, but I love not lamenting over my next move.
Good luck and enjoy the ride!
R-Dub
Good luck and enjoy the ride!
R-Dub
Moved from GClapper's M3 Mix to the Daily Seasonal #7980 / July 2017
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Even though my seasonal has performed very well this year, I took the leap to S. Buy low, sale high.
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
Here's another against argument.
US stocks fall after Trump threatens government shutdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/us-stocks-trump-government-shutdown.html
US stocks fall after Trump threatens government shutdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/us-stocks-trump-government-shutdown.html
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar
- Scarfinger
- Posts: 810
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am
Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S
ArrieS wrote:Here's another against argument.
US stocks fall after Trump threatens government shutdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/us-stocks-trump-government-shutdown.html
I saw that. I believe there won't be much action on Trumps words alone considering he seems to go off the cuff and changes his mind a lot.
If tax reform is dead... That will be another story.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation ofTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Fund Prices2024-03-28
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.15 | 0.05% | 1.05% |
F | $19.08 | -0.06% | -0.74% |
C | $82.21 | 0.11% | 10.55% |
S | $82.43 | 0.30% | 6.92% |
I | $42.57 | -0.24% | 5.95% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.02% | 8.37% |
L2060 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.01% | 6.95% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.02% | 6.58% |
L2040 | $54.38 | 0.02% | 6.22% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.02% | 5.79% |
L2030 | $47.67 | 0.02% | 5.38% |
L2025 | $13.15 | 0.03% | 3.43% |
Linc | $25.61 | 0.03% | 2.82% |