Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by Scarfinger »

I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.

You could argue for and against this move several ways.

Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.

Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?

I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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harpole
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by harpole »

Scarfinger wrote:I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.

You could argue for and against this move several ways.

Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.

Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?

I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.



My first IFT (F fund) under this strategy was August 1st. I've been stressing about the decision to IFT into the S fund all night. I keep thinking there is a bigger dip on the way, so why not wait. However, the 4-5% dip we've seen this month may have been it.?
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by Travis1984 »

harpole wrote:
Scarfinger wrote:I pulled the trigger. Moving to "S". Interfund transfer placed today before noon.

You could argue for and against this move several ways.

Supporting:
1. seasonal data from calculator
2. "C" is close to 50 day MA for support
3. "S" is close to 200 day MA for support\
4. if the market is going to move sideways... stochastics suggest a bounce up.

Against:
1. Trying to catch the "falling knife"
2. not much chart data/patterns to support the move
****a. several lower lows and lower highs suggesting a downtrend.
3. A late entry into the daily seasonal could catch all the losses and miss all the gains from earlier in the year and thus... not average out as well?

I am sure there are other interpretations FOR and AGAINST the move to "S". But... I am going to give it a try.



My first IFT (F fund) under this strategy was August 1st. I've been stressing about the decision to IFT into the S fund all night. I keep thinking there is a bigger dip on the way, so why not wait. However, the 4-5% dip we've seen this month may have been it.?


"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Travis1984 wrote:
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda


HAHAHAHA!!! Dude this is great! You need to make this your new sig.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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opg
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:29 pm

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by opg »

I am 37 and have a long time until retirement. Could be a game changer in the long run. Count me in for Daily Seasonal.
All in with 7980.

cashworth
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by cashworth »

http://tspcenter.com/leaderBoard.php?view=Pending

Looks like you guys aren't alone!

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by Travis1984 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
Travis1984 wrote:
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda


HAHAHAHA!!! Dude this is great! You need to make this your new sig.


I'm actually considering only responding with Yoda quotes. They have one for nearly every situation!
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

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mjedlin66
Site Admin
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by mjedlin66 »

Yep, that's getting added to my website quotes.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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maui21ice
Posts: 242
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:45 pm

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by maui21ice »

Moving to S-fund today as well with the rest of the gang! :)

F-Fund got me some good numbers my few weeks in it.

RDub
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:41 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by RDub »

Yes! I moved from the Monthly Seasonal (G-Clapper's M-3 Mix) to the daily seasonal in July. Who knows what will happen, but I love not lamenting over my next move.

Good luck and enjoy the ride!

R-Dub
Moved from GClapper's M3 Mix to the Daily Seasonal #7980 / July 2017

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hytid
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:01 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by hytid »

I'm in.

:idea:

hotelyank
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:04 pm

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by hotelyank »

:shock: Even though my seasonal has performed very well this year, I took the leap to S. Buy low, sale high.

adm_m
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:54 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by adm_m »

IN.
Daily Strategy #10716

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by ArrieS »

Here's another against argument.

US stocks fall after Trump threatens government shutdown

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/us-stocks-trump-government-shutdown.html
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

User avatar
Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Daily Seasonal Aug 23 move to S

Post by Scarfinger »

ArrieS wrote:Here's another against argument.

US stocks fall after Trump threatens government shutdown

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/us-stocks-trump-government-shutdown.html


I saw that. I believe there won't be much action on Trumps words alone considering he seems to go off the cuff and changes his mind a lot.

If tax reform is dead... That will be another story.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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