Sell in May....

[fordest]

I was doing a little reading about the Sell in May and Go Away strategy; and I said to myself, "Self, when in May would be the best time to sell? When would one buy back in? October surely, but when? "

Then I said to myself, "Self, wouldn't it be nice if we had some sort of tool that would allow us to find the average yearly returns since, say, 2004 to now depending on when one sold and bought back in?"

Of course, the answer is: We do!. I went over to tspcalc and wasted a little time.

Generally speaking, selling early in May and buying early in October gets you the higher averages... but since 2004, the best average return would have been attained by selling on the 2nd trading day in May and buying back in on the 7th trading day in October. 12.65%. http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=12894&years=04-17 That is in comparison to the worst average: Selling on the 14th day in May and buying back in on the 20th day in October: 7.39%. http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=12983&years=04-17

I just found this interesting and wasted enough time doing it, that I wanted to share.

[12squared]

May be a good strategy for 529 plan college saving accounts which are only allowed two changes per year.

[mmmmmbeer]

Thats interesting. Not to shabs sir.

[cruisin]

Interesting.

[12squared]

Generally speaking, selling early in May and buying early in October gets you the higher averages... but since 2004, the best average return would have been attained by selling on the 2nd trading day in May and buying back in on the 7th trading day in October. 12.65%. http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=12894&years=04-17 That is in comparison to the worst average: Selling on the 14th day in May and buying back in on the 20th day in October: 7.39%. http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=12983&years=04-17

The returns above use G from May-Oct & S from Oct-May. My (T Rowe price based) 529 plans don't offer anything comparable to S.
Using F from May-Oct & C from Oct-May the best combination over the period 2004-16 is 11.24% for IFTs on the 2nd trading day of May and the 8th day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=13313&years=04-16&benchmarks=F-C
The worst combination is 7.90% for IFTs on the 14th trading day of May and the last trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=13407&years=04-16&benchmarks=F-C
For comparison, performance of F, C & S over the same period is 4.42%, 9.21% & 11.51%

[tmj100]

I was looking at something similar and came up with this one. If you have a chance look at:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7858&years=04-16

it provides 18.3% and is based on a "6 in 6 out" with a july modification added using - F, S and C

[cswift01]

I was looking at something similar and came up with this one. If you have a chance look at:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7858&years=04-16

it provides 18.3% and is based on a "6 in 6 out" with a july modification added using - F, S and C

What if you used the I fund at the end of Dec and begin Jan instead of the F?

Best

Me

[MakeMe$$$$]

What if you used the I fund at the end of Dec and begin Jan instead of the F?

Best

Me

Like this http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=13388&years=04-17&sortdir=desc&sortby=total&benchmarks=7858

Look at 1 year vs 5 year. Your suggestion is slightly behind the original scheme at 1 year but after 5 or more years does better.

[mjedlin66]

Hurricane Sandy Bug:

It was brought to my attention that some of these "Sell in May and go away" strategies were inconsistent for months that should have been the same. For instance, these two strategies:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1331 ... hmarks=F-C
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1334 ... hmarks=F-C

Were previously showing different values for ALL months 2012-2013, rather than just May and October.

I traced this to Hurricane Sandy. The NYSE was closed on October 29th and October 30th, 2012. So strategies that would normally trade on October 29th or October 30th in 2012 weren't executing that trade at all.

I added these two days to the holiday list and now everything works fine.

[12squared]

The worst 2 IFT per year combination of F & C is now 7.90% for IFTs on the 14th trading day of May and the last trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1340 ... hmarks=F-C

The best is still 11.24% for IFTs on the 2nd trading day of May and the 8th trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1331 ... hmarks=F-C

[bamafamily]

The best is still 11.24% for IFTs on the 2nd trading day of May and the 8th trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1331 ... hmarks=F-C

Not bad for only making 2 trades per year....Almost full auto pilot....

[cruisin]

Over 1% on C and S today. I still like the seasonal.

[mmmmmbeer]

The worst 2 IFT per year combination of F & C is now 7.90% for IFTs on the 14th trading day of May and the last trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1340 ... hmarks=F-C

The best is still 11.24% for IFTs on the 2nd trading day of May and the 8th trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1331 ... hmarks=F-C

11% for 2 IFTs a year? Thats freakin nuts! How awesome... it's pretty cool to know if I get bored and don't want to mess with it any moee at least that's there.

[Geno]

The best is still 11.24% for IFTs on the 2nd trading day of May and the 8th trading day of October.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1331 ... hmarks=F-C

Not bad for only making 2 trades per year....Almost full auto pilot....

Man if the whole workforce only did these 2 ift's they'd be cashin' out big time!

[fordest]

And just for fun...

G all year and S in December is 14221 http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=14221&years=04-17

It's interesting to see what happens in 2008 if you were to make your IFT on December 1 instead of Nov 30... http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7196&years=04-17