What's the Risk?
Moderator: Aitrus
What's the Risk?
Some outcomes are more likely than others. Choosing a course based only on the highest mean or lowest standard deviation from historical data provides only a partial glimpse through the clouds of possibilities.
The higher the standard deviation, the more likely the mean is to vary from year to year. We can estimate the range of variation of the mean by using "confidence intervals". This "margin of error" must be included when estimating the chance of having a negative return. The more confident we want to be, the wider the range will be.
To use a nautical metaphor, the mean is like the sea level, and the StdDev is like the average wave heights. A rougher sea will have higher wave crests. Suppose we measured the instantaneous water height (relative to the land elevation), once every minute for an hour. The StdDev of the data would be a fairly good estimate idea of the wave height. If we repeated measurements for the next hour, we would find that the StdDev was about the same as the first, but that the mean had shifted up or down - depending on the way the tide was heading.
In a harbor, the chance of the dock being washed over depends on both the mean level (tide and strong wind driven) and the wave height (wind driven). If we want to keep the dock above water, we need to build it above the highest waves, at the highest tide. In some areas, like the coast of Maine, this puts the docks 20+ feet above the water at low tide.
The chance of having a negative return can be computed using only the ratio of the mean and the standard deviation. That is, the chance of a down is year is equally likely if the mean & Std Dev is 30&15, 20&10, or 10&5. For example, if the Mean/StdDev is 2.0, it is 99% likely that no more than 9.9% of the returns will be negative, and 90% likely that that only 6.1% will be negative. However, we can be certain of a negative return at least 2.3% of the time.
The higher the standard deviation, the more likely the mean is to vary from year to year. We can estimate the range of variation of the mean by using "confidence intervals". This "margin of error" must be included when estimating the chance of having a negative return. The more confident we want to be, the wider the range will be.
To use a nautical metaphor, the mean is like the sea level, and the StdDev is like the average wave heights. A rougher sea will have higher wave crests. Suppose we measured the instantaneous water height (relative to the land elevation), once every minute for an hour. The StdDev of the data would be a fairly good estimate idea of the wave height. If we repeated measurements for the next hour, we would find that the StdDev was about the same as the first, but that the mean had shifted up or down - depending on the way the tide was heading.
In a harbor, the chance of the dock being washed over depends on both the mean level (tide and strong wind driven) and the wave height (wind driven). If we want to keep the dock above water, we need to build it above the highest waves, at the highest tide. In some areas, like the coast of Maine, this puts the docks 20+ feet above the water at low tide.
The chance of having a negative return can be computed using only the ratio of the mean and the standard deviation. That is, the chance of a down is year is equally likely if the mean & Std Dev is 30&15, 20&10, or 10&5. For example, if the Mean/StdDev is 2.0, it is 99% likely that no more than 9.9% of the returns will be negative, and 90% likely that that only 6.1% will be negative. However, we can be certain of a negative return at least 2.3% of the time.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: What's the Risk?
Which strategy are you following?
Re: What's the Risk?
Interesting 12X12. How does the chart change with 1 or 2 more years of data?
Re: What's the Risk?
evilanne wrote:How does the chart change with 1 or 2 more years of data?
As the number of years increases, the margin of error decreases.
You can experiment at https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval-calculator.html
Having more years of data decreases the Chance of Negative Returns - assuming the mean and StdDev stay the same. However, more years of data will generally decrease the StdDev, which might increase the Mean/SD ratio.
Last edited by 12squared on Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: What's the Risk?
Octjan2 wrote:Which strategy are you following?
One whose mean/SD > 3, and mean > 25.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: What's the Risk?
15204
Last edited by Octjan2 on Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- bamafamily
- Posts: 155
- Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:18 pm
Re: What's the Risk?
Thanks 12^2!!
So...just to make sure I understand...If my strategy is a 3.66....
I can be certain of a negative return year less than .03% of the time?
And almost 100% sure it will not be more than .64% of the time??
If so, I am liking those odds....
So...just to make sure I understand...If my strategy is a 3.66....
I can be certain of a negative return year less than .03% of the time?
And almost 100% sure it will not be more than .64% of the time??
If so, I am liking those odds....
Bama
Re: What's the Risk?
bamafamily wrote:Thanks 12^2!!
So...just to make sure I understand...If my strategy is a 3.66....
I can be certain of a negative return year less than .03% of the time?
And almost 100% sure it will not be more than .64% of the time??
If so, I am liking those odds....
At a mean/SD of 3.4 a negative return should be expected at least 0.03% of the time, but in rarely more than 0.64% of the years.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: What's the Risk?
So.... something about numbers, summarized into probably good and stuff? My goodness are you people smarter than me.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: What's the Risk?
This is great information 12x12. This puts alot of the daily strategies into much better context. For those interested:
7980: ratio 2.2, guaranteed negative return 1.39% of time; rarely more than 9.9% of time.
What this means is a potential delay in my hitting the $1M mark by 10 months (when using the aforementioned Strategy #15204. Theoretical tsp amounts at MRA retirement (2038) are cut in half.
7980: ratio 2.2, guaranteed negative return 1.39% of time; rarely more than 9.9% of time.
What this means is a potential delay in my hitting the $1M mark by 10 months (when using the aforementioned Strategy #15204. Theoretical tsp amounts at MRA retirement (2038) are cut in half.
Daily Seasonal Since: August 23, 2017
Current Strategy: 16198 / 7.21σ
Current Strategy: 16198 / 7.21σ
Re: What's the Risk?
12squared wrote:evilanne wrote:How does the chart change with 1 or 2 more years of data?
As the number of years increases, the margin of error decreases.
You can experiment at https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval-calculator.html
Having more or less data does not alter the Chance of Negative Returns. However, more years of data will generally decrease the StdDev, which might increase the Mean/SD ratio.
Correction: Having more years of data decreases the Chance of Negative Returns - assuming the mean and StdDev stay the same - which would be unusual.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
-
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm
Re: What's the Risk?
I've read this three times and I still don't understand...but it sounds like those that do are happy. Well done 12^2. If anyone can explain this in laymans terms...I would appreciate it!
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
Yoda
Re: What's the Risk?
Octjan2 wrote:Which strategy are you following?
Fair point. Which one are you following?
Best,
Me
Re: What's the Risk?
I haven't decided for sure which one I will be following. I am moving to the I fund today, which is in tandem with the leaders. Most of them finish out the year with the same moves, so we have some time to observe.
Re: What's the Risk?
12squared wrote:evilanne wrote:How does the chart change with 1 or 2 more years of data?
As the number of years increases, the margin of error decreases.
You can experiment at https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval-calculator.html
Having more or less data does not alter the Chance of Negative Returns. However, more years of data will generally decrease the StdDev, which might increase the Mean/SD ratio.
12squared,
Just so I understand this correctly, please check my thoughts.
I went to the site you suggested, and plugged in the data for Jahbulon's Basic Mix.
29 years of data
Sample Mean (CAGR) is 16.74% - should I use the straight mathematical average of 17.46% instead?
Standard Deviation is 13.05% - Calculated using Excel
Confidence level 95%
Confidence Interval: +/- 4.7
Does this mean that it's 95% likely that the true mean is between 12.04% and 21.44%?
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