Hrmmmm... what to do, what to do....

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Hrmmmm... what to do, what to do....

Post by cswift01 »

oldjack wrote:I would say stick with your chosen plan, especially if it's been working for you. And if you're comfortably ahead of plan with your recent returns then go, say, 80% what your fund says and 20% keep in the G Fund. Or 90/10, etc., this improves your chances of staying ahead.
Jack Bogle even suggests to go 100% in stocks when you are young. Gradually, he suggests to change that as you age.

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/jack-bo ... -rest.html

Best,

Me

ksmoly04
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: Hrmmmm... what to do, what to do....

Post by ksmoly04 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:I may just stay with the 7980 as it averages higher these last 3 months. Shoot the moon so to speak.
I've been following 7980 since the IFT in August. My personal goal for the year was 15%, and I'm at 14.44% as of yesterday's close. So like you, any of the strategies you mentioned will get me to my goal in short order.

I also just went back and looked at 7980 vs 16198. While the mean Nov Return for 7980 is higher(3.57%), its also extremely skewed by a +17.69% in 2008. If you remove that outlier, the mean is 2.42% which is slightly higher than 16198 and what I believe is more of the true mean in the first place.

As my signature shows, I've moved over to 16198. For me, I like the stability this strategy offers. Plus, you can't complain about its 7.21σ! FWIW, 7980 sits at 2.23σ for the 2004-2016 period.

Keith
Daily Seasonal Since: August 23, 2017
Current Strategy: 16198 / 7.21σ

oldjack
Posts: 124
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:24 pm

Re: Hrmmmm... what to do, what to do....

Post by oldjack »

I'm a late adopter of these daily strategies, but so far the one I found which I like the best is 15536.

STD DEV < 9 and CAGR > 32, very consistent over the years, no great outlier.

# of IFTs: 25
Std Dev: 8.85
CAGR: 32.77
Time in fund (%): G F C S I
16 29 8 34 13
Time In Stocks (C,S,I): 55.20
Total Compound Return: 5,189.08

You can see the query from which I picked it in the link:
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1553 ... sortby=avg

It also calls for a move to S Fund tomorrow.

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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