S fund Chart

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

S fund Chart

Post by Tomanyiron »

Just a few “chartwise” concerns about the S fund now. One or two have been going on for a while, all four indicate higher odds of pullback.

Image
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... =536663016

Price leaving the upper BB.
RSI turning down from the +/- 70 area.
CCI turning down from above 100.
A gradual rise in $RVX the Russell 2000 Volatility Index. An index of small cap volatility, angst or fear.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: S fund Chart

Post by Octjan2 »

The recent rise lately has been on tax reform hopes. It will be hard to maintain the euphoria with just White House staff coming on television talking about how great it is going to be, while not providing any concrete specifics.

User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: S fund Chart

Post by cswift01 »

Octjan2 wrote:The recent rise lately has been on tax reform hopes. It will be hard to maintain the euphoria with just White House staff coming on television talking about how great it is going to be, while not providing any concrete specifics.
I think they already explained the tax cut. I see how it would impact businesses and investors and very wealthy people. I think the real question will be the actual voting by the senate (the house will surely vote it in). If this plan gets voted in without any changes, then the euphoria on the stock market will probably continue.

Here is a reference to the plan:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... c5be258a86

UberTrish
Posts: 11
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:50 pm

Re: S fund Chart

Post by UberTrish »

Hope you're right.

User avatar
12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: S fund Chart

Post by 12squared »

Tomanyiron wrote: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... =536663016

Price leaving the upper BB.
The departure from the upper BB hasn't occurred like this in a long time. June 2014 is very similar, except that S was coming off a bottom two weeks earlier, not off a 6 week climb.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... 5140238412
Late February 2015 looks also similar, although its break away was initially with positive price movement.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... 9863852807
Late December 2013 is another example.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... 8694877249

Today makes 3 downward days in the last 4 - enough to tip the 3 day SMA in a negative direction. The regular MACD (12,26,9) shows a peak, while a "fast" MACD (5,20,7) is more clearly indicates downward movement.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... 0368776948
If the 5 day SMA goes down after tomorrow's close, I will be disinclined to move from G to S on Oct 11 or 12 as most of the Dailys prescribe.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

User avatar
sunny2012
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:13 am

Re: S fund Chart

Post by sunny2012 »

Thanks for the chart, Tomany...
I'm waiting for the drop to know when to best get in. . .
I'm just making this up as I go along.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: S fund Chart

Post by Octjan2 »

sunny2012 wrote:Thanks for the chart, Tomany...
I'm waiting for the drop to know when to best get in. . .
The last drop worth noting I can remember was Jan/feb 2016. I agree with you that it would be nice to have a pullback before getting in, but in the meantime you may miss out on 5-10% in gains.

DonkeyKong
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:36 pm

Re: S fund Chart

Post by DonkeyKong »

Yep, I think we'll see some nice gains in the coming months.

OkieTSPer
Posts: 119
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:44 pm

Re: S fund Chart

Post by OkieTSPer »

Thanks for the update Tomi.

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".