where is everyone IFT'n to today?
Moderator: Aitrus
where is everyone IFT'n to today?
most strategys have IFTs today or tomorrow
Following Stategy: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=16517
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
Well, I am going into the S fund today. I read up last night about the seasonal daily strategy, and decided to give 15536 a try. It seems too easy to be true, but the numbers are there. I previously was more a of a buy and hold Guy, that tried maybe once a year or so to time the market.
Started trying the daily 15536 plan on Oct 12, 2017.
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
I'm already in the S but I am officially starting to follow 16517 so I am sitting through this IFT since I'm already there.
Strategy: 16517 (since Oct 2017)
Allocation: 100% F
Current PIP: 15.46%
Previous PIP: 14.08%
Allocation: 100% F
Current PIP: 15.46%
Previous PIP: 14.08%
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- Posts: 191
- Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:39 am
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
100% S,
I am converting to 16517 Also, 30.56 CAGR , 4.46 std dev and only exposed to stocks 55.60% of the time.
I am converting to 16517 Also, 30.56 CAGR , 4.46 std dev and only exposed to stocks 55.60% of the time.
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
I'm also with 16517. Cant beat that Mean and Std Dev!! Made the IFT to S today.
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
when did you guys learn about #16517?
Following Stategy: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=16517
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
Looks like the largest crowd went to S.
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
I went to the S-fund as well starting today. Following the 15565 strategy.
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
I saw a few other people mention it in other posts recently and looked it up. I tried getting it to come up with the filters and I can't get it to show up other than looking it up specifically. I'm so happy others mentioned it because seems to be the best fit for me. I was thinking of another strategy but the standard deviation was at like 15% with only a 6% higher CAGR.Thirty3 wrote:when did you guys learn about #16517?
Strategy: 16517 (since Oct 2017)
Allocation: 100% F
Current PIP: 15.46%
Previous PIP: 14.08%
Allocation: 100% F
Current PIP: 15.46%
Previous PIP: 14.08%
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- Posts: 353
- Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:38 pm
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
What importance are you placing on exposure to stocks of 55.6%? Time your money is at risk, maybe?Regularguy wrote:100% S,
I am converting to 16517 Also, 30.56 CAGR , 4.46 std dev and only exposed to stocks 55.60% of the time.
The only "risk-free" fund is the G fund because it doesn't go down. The F fund can and does decrease in value and therefore is a loss risk for your money, just like stocks.
While most portfolios have both bond funds and stock funds together to mitigate losses when stocks turn down, the daily strategies invest in only one fund at a time. The F fund acts more like an inverse fund or bear fund that traditionally goes up when stocks are going down. While the F fund is a better choice than the G when stocks are down because the F returns many times more when it's going up, there is still the risk of loss, of the F fund nosediving.
#16517 has an exposure to risk of loss of 79%.
I like #16517 because of the low I fund content and the low StdDev lends confidence in achieving above a 25% return.
mo meng, mo ching (which loosely means: no money, no life)
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
Can you explain how you came up this? I don't understand it. Thanks!mindofmush wrote:#16517 has an exposure to risk of loss of 79%.
Strategy: 16517 (since Oct 2017)
Allocation: 100% F
Current PIP: 15.46%
Previous PIP: 14.08%
Allocation: 100% F
Current PIP: 15.46%
Previous PIP: 14.08%
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- Posts: 353
- Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:38 pm
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
I subtracted the time in the no risk G fund (21%) from the total to get 79%
or
add the time of all the funds that have a risk of loss:
F=24%
C=16%
S=34%
I= 6%
Total exposure to risk of loss = 80% (the time in fund numbers in the chart are rounded to nearest whole number)
or
add the time of all the funds that have a risk of loss:
F=24%
C=16%
S=34%
I= 6%
Total exposure to risk of loss = 80% (the time in fund numbers in the chart are rounded to nearest whole number)
mo meng, mo ching (which loosely means: no money, no life)
Re: where is everyone IFT'n to today?
M.o.m. is right. Assuming C,S,I are the only funds that expose you to risk is misleading. On this topic, I also tend to place little stake in the idea of minimizing exposure because my risk tolerance is high. I don't want to be in the G fund 40% of the time. I want to be in equities all the time, but ride my magic carpet over the market crashes.mindofmush wrote:I subtracted the time in the no risk G fund (21%) from the total to get 79%
or
add the time of all the funds that have a risk of loss:
F=24%
C=16%
S=34%
I= 6%
Total exposure to risk of loss = 80% (the time in fund numbers in the chart are rounded to nearest whole number)
Bottom line, I'm in it to see if I can outperform buy and hold.
Fund Prices2024-03-28
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.15 | 0.05% | 1.05% |
F | $19.08 | -0.06% | -0.74% |
C | $82.21 | 0.11% | 10.55% |
S | $82.43 | 0.30% | 6.92% |
I | $42.57 | -0.24% | 5.95% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.02% | 8.37% |
L2060 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.02% | 8.38% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.01% | 6.95% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.02% | 6.58% |
L2040 | $54.38 | 0.02% | 6.22% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.02% | 5.79% |
L2030 | $47.67 | 0.02% | 5.38% |
L2025 | $13.15 | 0.03% | 3.43% |
Linc | $25.61 | 0.03% | 2.82% |