"Best" Daily Strategy

General TSP Discussion.

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nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

"Best" Daily Strategy

Post by nrialto »

I have done very well with the Daily Strategy so far this year. I started off using #7980, and am now using #16198 (mostly due to its low standard deviation and consistent returns).

My questions:

Setting aside all other characteristics of a particular strategy, does anyone consider the number of negative months a strategy has when deciding to use it (#16198, for example has 30+, which seems to be higher than average).

Also, does anyone have a simple method to determine which strategies do best in particular months (rather than combing through all of them individually)? Of particular interest to me at the moment is which one's do best in November and December.

Lastly, is there any thing "wrong" with switching strategies from month-to-month?

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by fordest »

While there is nothing "wrong" with it, you may find it difficult to marry two different months from two different strategies due to the IFT limits.

If your outgoing month ends in a different fund than the one your oncoming month starts, you will need to burn an IFT to get there. That could leave you short one IFT to move during that new month.

This is the reason that nobody has been very successful creating a strategy that incorporates all the highest months' averages.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

CNMI
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by CNMI »

Sure would be awesome to have a 3rd IFT to play with on tspcalc. Oh well maybe someday.

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cswift01
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Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by cswift01 »

nrialto wrote:I have done very well with the Daily Strategy so far this year. I started off using #7980, and am now using #16198 (mostly due to its low standard deviation and consistent returns).

My questions:

Setting aside all other characteristics of a particular strategy, does anyone consider the number of negative months a strategy has when deciding to use it (#16198, for example has 30+, which seems to be higher than average).

Also, does anyone have a simple method to determine which strategies do best in particular months (rather than combing through all of them individually)? Of particular interest to me at the moment is which one's do best in November and December.

Lastly, is there any thing "wrong" with switching strategies from month-to-month?
What have you gained this year?

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by nrialto »

My PIP for November isn't showing yet, but latest is 20.45%

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by Travis1984 »

CNMI wrote:Sure would be awesome to have a 3rd IFT to play with on tspcalc. Oh well maybe someday.
How would that help you?
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

CNMI
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by CNMI »

Well if the government would make a simple rule change from 2 monthly ITS's to 3, just think of all the possible scenarios we could run.

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mjedlin66
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Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by mjedlin66 »

CNMI wrote:Well if the government would make a simple rule change from 2 monthly ITS's to 3, just think of all the possible scenarios we could run.
If that dream ever happens, then I will make the change. But I am not going to add in a function that is not possible in the TSP. I am going for accuracy.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

rayodom
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by rayodom »

CNMI wrote:Well if the government would make a simple rule change from 2 monthly ITS's to 3, just think of all the possible scenarios we could run.
That would be a game changer.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by fordest »

mjedlin66 wrote:
CNMI wrote:Well if the government would make a simple rule change from 2 monthly ITS's to 3, just think of all the possible scenarios we could run.
If that dream ever happens, then I will make the change. But I am not going to add in a function that is not possible in the TSP. I am going for accuracy.
I think I thought he meant TSP, not TSPCalc.... seems silly to set up TSPCalc to do something that we can't do on TSP.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

rayodom
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by rayodom »

That was the way I read the post too.

shadogree
Posts: 25
Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:28 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by shadogree »

nrialto wrote:My PIP for November isn't showing yet, but latest is 20.45%
Should be posted now.

rayodom
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by rayodom »

Yep just checked. 23.65%. I'm lovin' it!!!

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by nrialto »

23.36%

Unbelievable. Thanks to TSPcalc, I've been able to outperform any of the core funds. You may as well put the following in the encyclopedia as a fact (if they make them anymore): However the daily strategy fares, it is better than I could do on my own trying to time the market.

Thanks mjedlin66

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mjedlin66
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Re: "Best" Daily Strategy

Post by mjedlin66 »

My pip is 30.44%. Crazy.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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