Switch to Daily Seasonal or let it ride?

[rdavid]

So I have been contemplating switching to the daily seasonal for awhile now. I have been looking a lot into #16517 which has a IFT date on the 8th. Just looked at the current performance through October and currently sitting at 24.4%. Currently 40% in both C and S, with 20% in I. Now it has me contemplating just riding it out until the start of the new year with that high PIP.

Just wish I would of maxed out my the past two years I have been in TSP. Could of made a lot more.

[Aitrus]

It all depends on how much risk you want to take. Daily is very fluid as to what Mix # performs better, but a large number of them seem to run together at the head of the pack.

Monthly is simpler, less time consuming, has more historical data to draw upon, and has double the returns that the "experts" say to use when planning for retirement.

I view the daily as being high risk and monthly being medium or medium-high risk.

[Raven19x]

I'm currently following #16517 with one caveat, I go to L Income instead of G and F. I figure 75% G fund, 25% the rest, is good enough for my risk tolerance (I'm 29). There are times where the IFT limit messes with that however.

If you're thinking about making the jump, why wait til next year?

[searight]

I haven't fully bought into seasonal since it allows you to catch the maximum gains or avoid maximum gains. As a mitigation I am 30% C, 30% S, 10% I, 30% seasonal. I have 1 personal rule, never go G. So I modify the seasonal to go 80% F and 20% C whenever it calls for G.

[mmmmmbeer]

Since starting a daily seasonal on June 1, 2017

Beg bal:$246,397.88

Con/add: $10,737.75

Gain/loss: $24,045.47

End bal: $281,182.10

Cumulative Return: +9.51%

I guess look at how your current plan has returned and make your decision. IMHO the numbers speak for themselves.

[onerepmax]

I haven't fully bought into seasonal since it allows you to catch the maximum gains or avoid maximum gains. As a mitigation I am 30% C, 30% S, 10% I, 30% seasonal. I have 1 personal rule, never go G. So I modify the seasonal to go 80% F and 20% C whenever it calls for G.

I think you'd be better off finding a strategy that doesn't use G. You will not always be able to split recommended G transfers to F and C. Your 3rd and subsequent IFTs can only go to G.

Here are a few that look nice with zero time in G.

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1524 ... =10&Gmax=0

[Racerx919]

Since starting a daily seasonal on June 1, 2017

Beg bal:$246,397.88

Con/add: $10,737.75

Gain/loss: $24,045.47

End bal: $281,182.10

Cumulative Return: +9.51%

I guess look at how your current plan has returned and make your decision. IMHO the numbers speak for themselves.

Excellent! Again, we appreciate your openness and that's what this site is about. I don't have a little over half that amount, yet I am making progress (after divorce). The logic I don't understand, and there are a few in my office, "I'm leaving it the G fund where its safe." I think if you had your money in anything but the G you would have at least doubled it since 2004. From where I sit you're losing money strictly with G.

[rdavid]

Quick question. Does the performance percent include contributions or just gain from the investment funds?

[maui21ice]

Doing my move to the G-fund today per the 7980 daily strategy! Here's to hoping the market dips a bit.

[Qball]

Doing my move to the G-fund today per the 7980 daily strategy! Here's to hoping the market dips a bit.

Best of luck to ya!!!

[Racerx919]

Made the move to 'F' as per #16198. Good luck to us all!

[rdavid]

Bit the Bullet and made the move to F today. Was supposed to do it yesterday, but unfortunately was in the field all day and couldn't make it to a computer. Hopefully 1 day isn't too big of deal?

[hmarkway]

Bit the Bullet and made the move to F today. Was supposed to do it yesterday, but unfortunately was in the field all day and couldn't make it to a computer. Hopefully 1 day isn't too big of deal?

I put an alert in my calendar to make my moves for AFTER noon the day before - that way I have a day to remember to get my act together. Plus I'm 4 hours behind EST, so "noon" on the east coast is 0800 here, and I don't trust myself to make money moves before I've finished my first cup of coffee. So I always do it a day earlier than the scheduled day.