How long will Bull last

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mill0168
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:58 pm

How long will Bull last

Post by mill0168 »

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4116840-prepared-crash

Just read this article and wondering what everyone's opinion was about how close we are to the top of this bull run? Do you think it would be wise to slowly start hedging our bets with an increasing percentage (~10-30%) into more conservative funds F & G? I want to follow the Daily Calendar but slowly drift more funds into conservative indexes as the stocks continue to rise. This way I might not get all the gains of the Daily but would be better prepared for a large drop when it comes. Thoughts?

razorthin
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:43 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by razorthin »

I think sticking with a plan is the best overall strategy. Hopefully you've taken the time to research the plan you chose. By following a daily or seasonal plan it means you don't hedge. That's why it's called a plan.

Jesrich
Posts: 23
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:16 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by Jesrich »

I agree with razor thin. STICK TO THE PLAN!

I think if you print out the top "mean" plan, the top "total" plan, your plan, and 5 plans somewhere in the middle, they will all be closely related. They will differ by only a few days, or they might go to G instead of F, or C instead of S. Overall, the good ones, are closely related.

Compare your plan, to the S,C, and I fund using the tspcalc. Your plan will fair much better, and are in the stocks much less time. 100% to 54%-61% for most strategies.

Additionally, have you looked at the years 2007-2008, for any of these strategies? Even the "mean" leader (strategy 16870) earned 14.91% in 2007, when the market crashed and the following 2 years, it earned 93.86% and 110%, respectively.

Using this information, it doesnt matter what the market does, because HISTORICALLY, your plan won't be in the fund that is crashing at that time. You should be in G, or maybe F.

In the end, I have the same concerns you do, but my intention is to FOLLOW MY STRATEGY to a "T". Who knows the market better than historical data anyway? I certainly don't. Do you?

Relax, calm down, and don't let emotions ruin your ROI.

Take care,
Jesrich
1st IFT Jul 10,17

PIP-end of 2nd qtr 2017 was 18.46%
PIP-end of Dec,17 23.4%
PIP-end of Jan,18 20.73%
PIP-end of Feb,18 14.25%
PIP-end of Mar,18 9.12%
PIP-end of Apr,18 8.12%
PIP-end of May,18 12.24%
PIP-end of jun,18 12.04%
End jul 11.15%

Buckeyedog
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:42 pm

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by Buckeyedog »

I say sure. Maybe just go with the plan for 80% of your $$, then put 20% in the G fund if that makes you feel a bit better. Nothing wrong with that.

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scotth2010
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 11:04 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by scotth2010 »

Being 5 to 7 years from retirement, but still wanting growth, I have lessened my exposer to a down turn. Still a plan, but as Buckeye states, I feel better.

jdunn382
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 10:58 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by jdunn382 »

Realistically, we can only guess what the market may or may not do.

The daily seasonal strategy has IFTs to the G and F funds for a reason. It accounts for the historical times that the market has a correction. Many of the strategies brought a positive return in 2008 during the real estate market crash by being in the G or F funds during downturns and the C,S,I during upturns.

Stick with the plan. The work has been done for us to maximize our profitability.

cashworth
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by cashworth »

I lean much more towards fear of missing out than fear of losing money. But there is nothing wrong with protecting your assets at whatever level of exposure makes you sleep well.
I just don't buy into the idea that the market HAS to crash soon because it made a new high.

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bamafamily
Posts: 155
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:18 pm

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by bamafamily »

I don’t think hedging your position a little bit is such a bad thing.
A lot of people are talking gloom and doom and while the market continues to run, the numbers don’t lie that it is very overvalued.
I am hedging my current position by being in 50LI/50G.
I will probably head to my next position with some percentage of G. Probably 50-50 again.
I know I will not make as much money as those of you who go 100% S, but I will not lose as much should the market decide to start trundling down a little bit either.
Bama

bad70nova
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:18 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by bad70nova »

Yes, if we knew when the market was going to turn we would all be better off, but seeing we don't a plan is the way to go. Seasonal or daily. As for me I am sticking to the plan, but I do agree and have considered a 50 / 50 split. But then again the market will take a tumble from 17 - 22 Nov, ok that is just a joke don't take that serious. The best I can predict is the market will end up on the down side today, but that prediction may change around 3:55 or so!!!

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jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by jlozano042 »

I predict the market will be lower or higher than it was the day prior.

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by evilanne »

Such wisdom :lol:

SnareMV17
Posts: 176
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 9:06 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by SnareMV17 »

How about a 50/50 split between seasonal and daily seasonal? :shock: (mind blown!)
"Get your money for nothin', and your chicks for free."

Following TSPCalc strategy #64902.

jbirdway
Posts: 32
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 2:12 pm

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by jbirdway »

I predict that the previous predictions can't be predicted. ;)

jdw8xb
Posts: 22
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by jdw8xb »

We could have a significant selloff in the coming months but I do not believe we are headed to a bear market in the near future. The simple fact is unemployment rate is to low at 4.1% for a bear market to occur. Not going to happen. One thing for sure when it does come it will occur entirely differently than the one in 2008. Starting at a different time and ending at a different time. And when my bear market indicator occurs I will be OUT of the market.

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: How long will Bull last

Post by ArrieS »

I don't trust the F fund. I'm all about the G.

Currencies are valued on a relative basis and our major trading partners are far more indebted, meaning that their currency must depreciate before the dollar.

The only way all currencies can fall together (since they are relative) is to devalue against gold or some other hard asset commodity - an unlikely scenario.

We currently sit in the fifth major occurrence of debt accumulation in the United States since the 1800s and the current build-up of obligations dwarfs the past four debt peaks which led to panics and crashes that had lasting consequences.

Increases in debt raise the cost to service that debt, which lowers the saving rate, lowers the velocity of money, lowers long-term interest rates and causes companies to forego growth-generating projects in exchange for financial engineering.

These dynamics further decrease the productivity of the labor market, which cause a secular decline in wage growth, amplifying the problem and making it more difficult to pay down debt.

The Federal Reserve, through ever-tightening monetary policy, is taking steps to further decrease the growth in the money supply (M2), which multiplied with falling velocity, will stand to reduce the growth rate of the economy at an accelerating pace.

This problem of over-indebtedness will not end in hyperinflation as many suggest but more likely will end with one of crushing deflation, similar to the results of the 1930s and 2008, two massive economic issues brought about by a systemic issue of over-indebtedness.

Lower rates of nominal growth will be the result and similar interest rates will follow. 2.4% interest rates will be a distant memory once the velocity of money in the United States falls below 1, as will 2% economic growth.

The economy is too indebted for interest rates to rise and stay up.

Of course this is just a theory.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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