Not "F" for the near future

[Tomanyiron]

So specking of "no F fund”, (and the other confusing fund, I), I did some research with the Seasonal Strategies. And 18382 is very appealing.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1838 ... x=0&Imax=0

Mean of 30.42, StdDev of only 10.41. Using only the G, C & S funds, with about 50% of the time out of the markets. Another attractive aspect is it stays high on the list, when you change start and end years.

It says IFT to G on Friday,

Are you going to try a seasonal strategy?

Everytime I start to think it might be a good idea, a day like today comes along. What is it Anne, the 2nd week of Dec pullback coming early this year?

[evilanne]

Based on your selected mix, you would still be up .93% if you have made the move to S on Nov 20th per the plan, even with the recent losses.

It could be delay from September where we avoided typical EOY budget talk due to agreement to kick the can down the road because of the hurricanes. I'm thinking it is all the political uncertainty with the budget, spending cap & possible gov't shutdown looming, which will likely be be delayed until right before congress is scheduled to take their Christmas break. They tend to be more effective in getting things accomplished at the last minute, especially when they are about to leave for the holidays.

[Tomanyiron]

Yes the Seasonal Strategies are “statistically significant”, but the market will always be held hostage to bad news. Well at-least in the short-term.

I continue to be hung-up on trend analyst. With the idea, it is best to trade with the trend, keeping in mind the seasonal tendencies (which help with hitting the button). In the past, (not so much this year), you could see that trending markets occur with some degree of regularity. The ability to correctly predict what is the start of a trend is "the Devil's in the Details".

For now, it sure looks like the trend has changed to down, but for how long or how far? This year the down-trends have been so short, by the time it looks like one has started, it reverses. And of course trends are held hostage to good or bad news also.

[cswift01]

All, don't forget the talk in congress right now to make the G Fund less interesting. There is a discussion that they believe that the G Fund provides for interest rates equal to long-term investments, although according to them it should be short-term. That might make the G Fund even less appealing. Keep that in mind when removing F from your investment cycle.

[mindofmush]

All, don't forget the talk in congress right now to make the G Fund less interesting. There is a discussion that they believe that the G Fund provides for interest rates equal to long-term investments, although according to them it should be short-term. That might make the G Fund even less appealing. Keep that in mind when removing F from your investment cycle.

Yep, taking away that FED employee benefit will surely put a couple trillion into Uncle Sam's pocket and eliminate the debt too.

[cswift01]

All, don't forget the talk in congress right now to make the G Fund less interesting. There is a discussion that they believe that the G Fund provides for interest rates equal to long-term investments, although according to them it should be short-term. That might make the G Fund even less appealing. Keep that in mind when removing F from your investment cycle.

Yep, taking away that FED employee benefit will surely put a couple trillion into Uncle Sam's pocket and eliminate the debt too.

Haha. Good point.

[bad70nova]

Not going to deviate from the plan, stick to the statistics and make moves when it is called for. I have tried to leave the emotions out of it this year and have done so much better. Normally I would have already jumped form S fund, but hanging around till tomorrow maybe Friday then jumping to G for a week or so till the next move. As stated earlier S fund still up from the last move even with the last 3 days of action. Hope for a good day ending today or a nice rebound tomorrow before moving.