Seasonal Musings 2018

[Aitrus]

As I mentioned before, I wanted to do a more comprehensive post on the new PIP addition I’ve added to this year’s monthly posts.

The idea for this came from a brief conversation I had with one of the forum members. I can’t remember who that was, but you know who you are, so please feel free to step up and claim your accolades for inspiring this little improvement to my project.

What I want to do is to present the historical PIP statistics for each Mix. I’ll let the results speak for themselves. I will present three numbers: the number of months with a positive PIP, the number of months with a PIP over 12%, and the number of months with a negative PIP. I’m doing it this way so that you can see how often a Mix is positive, how often a Mix is at least meeting the 12% per year goal, and how often it’s failing. Remember, we’re ok with a 30% failure rate as long as the annual return is at least 12%. As long as there is a positive PIP at least 70% of the time and the long-term CAGR is at least 12%, then it’s a winning program.

The months include in these numbers are from Dec 1988 – Jan 2018. I had to start in Dec 1988 because that’s when the first 12-month PIP can be calculated. That’s a total of 350 months of returns.

One thing that’s interesting to note: most negative months tend to run in batches. There are single or double months here and there, but the vast majority of negative PIPs are grouped together. In hindsight, this shouldn’t be surprising since it takes significant losses to drag a PIP into negative territory, and a long run of positive months to drag it out again.

Jahbulon’s Basic Mix – long term CAGR = 16.66%
Months with positive PIP: 327 of 350 (93.43% of the time the PIP has been positive)
Months with PIP of 12% or more: 243 of 350 (69.42% of the time the PIP has been 12% or greater)
Months with negative PIP: 23 of 350 (6.57% of the time the PIP has been negative)

gclapper’s Mix – long term CAGR = 17.86%
Months with positive PIP: 327 of 350 (93.43%)
Months with PIP of 12% or more: 246 of 350 (70.28%)
Months with negative PIP: 23 of 350 (6.57%)

TSPCenter’s Mix – long term CAGR = 13.96%
Months with positive PIP: 335 of 350 (95.71%)
Months with PIP of 12% or more: 201 of 350 (57.43%)
Months with negative PIP: 15 of 350 (4.29%)

tmj100’s Mix – long term CAGR = 16.66%
Months with positive PIP: 318 of 350 (90.86%)
Months with PIP of 12% or more: 262 of 350 (74.86%)
Months with negative PIP: 32 of 350 (9.14%)

Boltman’s Mix – long term CAGR = 14.56%
Months with positive PIP: 304 of 350 (86.86%)
Months with PIP of 12% or more:214 of 350 (61.14%)
Months with negative PIP: 46 of 350 (13.14%)

Sell in May – long term CAGR = 11.44%
Months with positive PIP: 304 of 350 (86.86%)
Months with PIP of 12% or more: 215 of 350 (61.43%)
Months with negative PIP: 46 of 350 (13.14%)

[Aitrus]

All,

My apologies for not getting this out sooner. I've been stuck in bed fighting the a stuffy head, sore throat and fever, and almost forgot to get the data out in time for people to make a decision. I haven't missed an "upcoming month" post month since I started this back in 2014, and I don't plan to start missing any now!

For March 2018
Last chance to move: Wednesday, 28 February before noon EST
For this coming March, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.42%
Last 20 years: 0.31%
Last 10 years: 0.21%
Last 5 years: 0.17%

March is one of the better months of the year for the G Fund. The 2017 return was 0.20%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.03%, PNR 57%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.13%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.23%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.26%, PNR 60%

March is hands-down the worst month of the year for the F Fund. ‘Nuff said.

The best years were 2009 (1.38%), 2000 (1.32%) and 2016 (0.93%). The worst years were 1994 (-2.45%), 2002 (-1.66%) and 1997 (-1.11%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.38%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.13%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.71%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.95%, PNR 80%

The C Fund does very well in March, particularly in the last decade. It has the best “Last 20 year” and “Last 10 year” CAGRs for the entire year.

The best years were 2000 (9.74%), 2009 (8.81%) and 2016 (6.79%). The worst years were 2001 (-6.33%), 1994 (-4.39%) and 1997 (-4.13%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.40%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.93%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.17%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.63%, PNR 60%

March is good for the S Fund, although the long term PNRs are all barely in the “good” range. Still, the years from 2002 onward have been pretty good, with only 4 negative returns in all that time, two of which were only minor losses.

The best years were 2009 (8.64%), 2016 (8.24%) and 2010 (7.39%). The worst years were 2001 (-9.18%), 1997 (-5.22%) and 1994 (-4.89%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.14%, PNR 67%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.53%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.93%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.62%, PNR 60%

The I Fund’s February profile doesn’t completely meet the “good month”, but it isn’t bad either. It’s a decent month with good CAGRs and ok PNRs.

The best years were 1993 (8.56%), 2009 (7.20%), and 2016 (6.59%). The worst years were 1990 (-10.54%), 1992 (-6.75%), and 2001 (-6.67%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for March 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[Midway]

Thanks for the update. Get well soon. Maybe MJ could send you that vaccine from Japan that kills the flu in 24 hours.

[evilanne]

Get well soon! If you have the flu, oscillococcinum is really good to relieve symptoms.

https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/boiro ... 95-product

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks for the update.

[23V23C]

Awesome as always, hope you are feeling better.

[Aitrus]

Thanks everybody for the well wishes. I'm back on my feet now, although my family ha not contracted it to more or less degrees. Ah, well, them's the breaks.

Seasonal Strategy Results for February 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.21%, 0.41% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Feb Total CAGR = 0.37%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.28%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 0.18%
Feb 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

This was a very good Feb for the G Fund. The last time Feb had a return that was over 20% was 2011. The G Fund is now ahead of its 2017 pace by 0.03%. 2017’s return was 0.18%.

F Fund: -0.96%, -2.09% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 0.28%, PNR 71%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.31%, PNR 75%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 0.09%, PNR 70%
Feb 5 year CAGR = 0.02%, PNR 60%

February is a so-so month for the F Fund. It has decent PNRs, but subpar CAGRs. This year’s return was the 4th worst on record. 2017’s return was 0.71%.

C Fund: -3.69%, 1.82% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 0.44%, PNR 61%
Feb 20 year CAGR = -0.45%, PNR 50%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 1.09%, PNR 70%
Feb 5 year CAGR = 2.04%, PNR 60%

The C Fund gave back a lot of what it gained in January, and in doing so broke a straight 15-month positive return streak that began in Nov 2016. This year was the third worst on record for the C Fund in Feb. 2017’s return was 3.97%.

S Fund: -3.79%, -0.58% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 1.08%, PNR 61%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.23%, PNR 55%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 1.36%, PNR 80%
Feb 5 year CAGR = 2.06%, PNR 80%

The S Fund had a bad February. Not as bad as the I Fund, but still pretty bad. This negative broke a positive Feb returns streak that began in 2010. It gave back everything it earned in January and then some. Despite that, the S Fund still has the best stats out of all the Funds in February, but it’s still a so-so month by strict “good month” standards. This just goes to show that even historically ok months still have bad years now and then. This year was the fourth worst on record for the S Fund in Feb. 2017’s return was 2.45%.

I Fund: -5.07%, -0.32% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 0.42%, PNR 58%
Feb 20 year CAGR = -0.13%, PNR 55%
Feb 10 year CAGR = -0.12%, PNR 60%
Feb 5 year CAGR = 0.92%, PNR 60%

This February was not kind to the I Fund, not at all. Still, with as bad as it was, it’s just the 4th worst on record. And it’s the first time I’ve had to mark any month red on my charts for being worse than -5.0% in a long time. 2017’s return was 1.44%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: S Fund in Feb (-3.79%), -4.89% YTD, PIP 5.86%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: S Fund in Feb (-3.79%), -4.89% YTD, PIP 8.4%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: G Fund in Feb (0.21%), -0.93% YTD, PIP 6.11%
tjm100’s Mix: C Fund in Feb (-3.69%), -4.79% YTD, PIP 7.25%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Feb (-0.96%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 8.44%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Feb (-3.69%), 1.82% YTD, PIP 10.86%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Feb (0.21%), 0.41% YTD

Jan 2018 started out well for stocks, but Feb yanked pretty much all of that back. Combined with a bad Jan for bonds, and most of the Mixes are in the negative right now. No strategy is 100% accurate in giving positive returns, because sometimes the strategy just doesn’t work. And it hurts when you see everybody else doing better than you. Right now is the time when ignoring the news and just sticking with the plan is the hardest to do, but this is also when it’s most critical.

A little side note on math: an astute observer might notice something fishy in my above results. The I Fund returned 5.00% in Jan, and -5.07% in Feb. So why is it -0.32% at the end of Feb? It's the way that the CAGR calculation works. It takes negative compounding into account, and is a more accurate reflection of how returns perform over the long run. That's why TSP.gov and I both use it instead of just straight addition and subtraction.

[Chulke]

Man am I torn between jumping back in on a monthly seasonal strategy (gclapper's M3 mix) or Daily Seasonal #34356...On one hand I have this need to jump back into the market somewhere and start trying to get back some of my losses from this year because I was following what apparently was the wrong Daily seasonal for this year, and on the other hand I have this need to shield my money from this extremely volatile year that has even all the Monthly seasonally trending investment strategies flipped on their proverbial ear...hmmmm

What's a guy to do???

So do I try a different daily like 34356 which so far this year has been pretty spot on? Or do I go back to one of the tried and true monthly's like Gclapper's M3 mix, which btw isn't doing so hot this year either?


Man, Decisions, Decisions??!!

[jlozano042]

Man am I torn between jumping back in on a monthly seasonal strategy (gclapper's M3 mix) or Daily Seasonal #34356...On one hand I have this need to jump back into the market somewhere and start trying to get back some of my losses from this year because I was following what apparently was the wrong Daily seasonal for this year, and on the other hand I have this need to shield my money from this extremely volatile year that has even all the Monthly seasonally trending investment strategies flipped on their proverbial ear...hmmmm

What's a guy to do???

So do I try a different daily like 34356 which so far this year has been pretty spot on? Or do I go back to one of the tried and true monthly's like Gclapper's M3 mix, which btw isn't doing so hot this year either?


Man, Decisions, Decisions??!!

How long will you be in the game? How long until you retire good sir?

[Chulke]

Oh I still got a long haul till retirement at least 18 years...but for me it's not about buying and holding or anything like that...for me it's about maintaining a consistent return every year...Year in and year out...15% yearly return is my goal anything over that is just gravy.

For the past couple years I followed a monthly seasonal strategy with good results both netting me nearly 20% gains for the year.

I started this year thinking I would try a daily seasonal that looked good and had consistent returns, (I don't even remember the strategy number at this point) because I believe it to be such a horrible mistake, and I am so pissed at myself for allowing it to drag me down -5%.

And although -5% may not seem like a lot in the grand scheme of things...Losing money is not the name of the game here...

I think Trump has proven to be more of market disrupter this year...and that's what has all the strategies turned on their ears...

So the question for me is this...What strategy will allow me to make money at or near my chosen percentage goal, given the climate and changing nature of the U.S. economy amid rising geopolitical pressure and pot stirring politics of the current administration?


hmmmm??

[Aitrus]

Maybe chop your money in half? Use half to follow gclapper, and the other half to follow the daily?

[wdd09]

Oh I still got a long haul till retirement at least 18 years...but for me it's not about buying and holding or anything like that...for me it's about maintaining a consistent return every year...Year in and year out...15% yearly return is my goal anything over that is just gravy.

For the past couple years I followed a monthly seasonal strategy with good results both netting me nearly 20% gains for the year.

I started this year thinking I would try a daily seasonal that looked good and had consistent returns, (I don't even remember the strategy number at this point) because I believe it to be such a horrible mistake, and I am so pissed at myself for allowing it to drag me down -5%.

And although -5% may not seem like a lot in the grand scheme of things...Losing money is not the name of the game here...

I think Trump has proven to be more of market disrupter this year...and that's what has all the strategies turned on their ears...

So the question for me is this...What strategy will allow me to make money at or near my chosen percentage goal, given the climate and changing nature of the U.S. economy amid rising geopolitical pressure and pot stirring politics of the current administration?


hmmmm??

Just going to help you out here, while setting goals high is good, expecting or trying to attain a 15% return is way too lofty and unreasonable. My goal is to average 10% a year with the monthly seasonal investment strategy. I use this number to estimate and plan out my future retirement nest-egg because I would much rather estimate small and prepare my life for that, than try to plan around an unreasonably high average rate of return. I suggest you do the same to keep expectations grounded. Even with modest contributions and an average rate of 10% your nest-egg will grow nicely.

[Aitrus]

For April 2018
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 March before noon EST
For this coming March, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.31%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

April is a so-so month of the year for the G Fund. The 2017 return was 0.20%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.43%, PNR 67%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.43%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.66%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.57%, PNR 80%

April is close to the “good month” standard, but not completely there.

The best years were 1989 (2.05%), 2002 (1.89%) and 1997 (1.49%). The worst years were 2004 (-2.54%), 1990 (-0.94%) and 1994 (-0.81%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.72%, PNR 77%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.82%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.31%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.01%, PNR 100%

April is either the best or second best time of the year for the C Fund, depending on which timescale you look at. It’s best for Last 10 and Last 20 years. Since 2006 there has been only one negative year, 2012 at -0.62%.

The best years were 2009 (9.58%), 2003 (8.26%) and 2001 (7.78%). The worst years were 2002 (-6.06%), 2000 (-2.98%) and 1990 (-2.52%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.51%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.70%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.59%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.10%, PNR 60%

April has been good for the S Fund historically, although the last five years have been rougher than normal. April also has the best single-month return for the S Fund in its entire history.

The best years were 2009 (15.00%), 2001 (10.58%) and 2003 (8.31%). The worst years were 2000 (-12.03%), 2004 (-3.94%) and 2005 (-3.72%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.52%, PNR 80%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.67%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.42%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 3.08%, PNR 100%

If I had to pick a single month in the year to invest in the I Fund, April would be it, no question about it. Hands-down the best CAGR and PNR. A few Mixes move to the I Fund at this time of year to take advantage of this history.

The best years were 2009 (12.13%), 2003 (9.82%), and 1993 (9.34%). The worst years were 2000 (-5.36%), 2010 (-2.35%), and 2004 (-2.31%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for April 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the I Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the S Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[wdd09]

For April 2018
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 March before noon EST
For this coming March, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.31%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

April is a so-so month of the year for the G Fund. The 2017 return was 0.20%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.43%, PNR 67%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.43%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.66%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.57%, PNR 80%

April is close to the “good month” standard, but not completely there.

The best years were 1989 (2.05%), 2002 (1.89%) and 1997 (1.49%). The worst years were 2004 (-2.54%), 1990 (-0.94%) and 1994 (-0.81%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.72%, PNR 77%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.82%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.31%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.01%, PNR 100%

April is either the best or second best time of the year for the C Fund, depending on which timescale you look at. It’s best for Last 10 and Last 20 years. Since 2006 there has been only one negative year, 2012 at -0.62%.

The best years were 2009 (9.58%), 2003 (8.26%) and 2001 (7.78%). The worst years were 2002 (-6.06%), 2000 (-2.98%) and 1990 (-2.52%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.51%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.70%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.59%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.10%, PNR 60%

April has been good for the S Fund historically, although the last five years have been rougher than normal. April also has the best single-month return for the S Fund in its entire history.

The best years were 2009 (15.00%), 2001 (10.58%) and 2003 (8.31%). The worst years were 2000 (-12.03%), 2004 (-3.94%) and 2005 (-3.72%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.52%, PNR 80%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.67%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.42%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 3.08%, PNR 100%

If I had to pick a single month in the year to invest in the I Fund, April would be it, no question about it. Hands-down the best CAGR and PNR. A few Mixes move to the I Fund at this time of year to take advantage of this history.

The best years were 2009 (12.13%), 2003 (9.82%), and 1993 (9.34%). The worst years were 2000 (-5.36%), 2010 (-2.35%), and 2004 (-2.31%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for April 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the I Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the S Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

Markets are closed Friday so wouldn't we have to make our moves Thursday before noon?

[evilanne]

WDD, you are correct...Thursday is last day to move in March