TSP Center

I use the same formula that TSP uses. See below for details.

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/oc05-16w.pdf

Aitrus, thank you for setting me straight on the fact that CAGR does not have an early bias. I was mistaken.

I am still not convinced it makes sense to use CAGR for studying a month at a time, but I am going to think on it some more.

Is Aitrus still active? He did not post results for June?

tegsr94, look at page 5 for June posting............

Hey everybody, I'm back. Apologies for being away for nearly a month, I flew in a couple of days ago. I was in West Texas to be near my father as he passed away on 4 July. Then the extended family descended like vultures upon whatever worldly goods he left behind, then funeral preparations, etc. I've spent the last month living in a 1950's West Texas homestead without running water, AC in only one room, no plumbing, no internet, one bar of service on my cell, and busting my butt trying to sort out my father's paperwork and prepare the property to sell. And here I thought I was done with all my deployments to hot, dry locales under austere conditions. Silly me.

It's been a very busy and very tiring month (mentally and emotionally), so I apologize if anybody has posted questions or issues to me that I haven't attended to. Please PM me if there's anything that needs addressing - I took note of the malfunctioning charts at the bottom of the screen and notified King already, so that's already been attended to.

Now, on with a backdated entry for June's results, followed by the upcoming post for August.

Seasonal Strategy Results for June 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.24%, 1.37% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jun Total CAGR = 0.40%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.29%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.20%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

This was a very good June for the G Fund. The last time June had a return this good was 2010. 2017’s return was 0.19%. Of note: The first four months of 2018 have all been 0.2% or better. The last time that happened was 2011. The last full year of 0.20% or better returns was 2008.

F Fund: -0.10%, -1.56% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = 0.59%, PNR 65%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.24%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.10%, PNR 50%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.13%, PNR 40%

June was a little disappointing for the F Fund. It’s still an ok choice for this time of year, but it’s nothing to crow about. Still, it’s better than being in stocks. 2017’s return was -0.09%.

C Fund: 0.61%, 2.62% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = -0.20%, PNR 58%
Jun 20 year CAGR = -0.59%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = -0.25%, PNR 60%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.32%, PNR 800%

The C Fund had an above average return for June. This marks three positive June returns in a row for the C Fund, which hasn’t happened since 2003 – 2006 run of positive (barely for 2005 / 2006) years. 2017’s return was 0.62%.

S Fund: 0.86%, 6.16% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = 0.86%, PNR 58%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.42%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.01%, PNR 50%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 1.34%, PNR 60%

This was an above average June for the S Fund. Nothing stellar, just “good ‘nuff”. 2017’s return was 2.33%.

I Fund: -1.20%, -2.43% YTD
Jun Total CAGR = -0.74%, PNR 42%
Jun 20 year CAGR = -0.43%, PNR 45%
Jun 10 year CAGR = -0.66%, PNR 20%
Jun 5 year CAGR = -1.32%, PNR 20%

This June was pretty much par for the course for the I Fund. We expected a negative return somewhere south of -0.50%, and we got one. 2017’s return was -0.18%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.10%), -4.81% YTD, PIP 3.37%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.10%), -3.27% YTD, PIP 5.91%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jun (-0.10%), -0.86% YTD, PIP 3.62%
tjm100’s Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.10%), 0.05% YTD, PIP 8.48%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.10%), 3.55% YTD, PIP 14.46%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jun (0.24%), 0.08% YTD, PIP 7.31%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jun (0.24%), 1.37% YTD

Everybody was in the F Fund this month, and so everybody pulled up a little short of break-even. Well within a single day’s trading, in fact. Boltman’s Mix is still in the lead, although the year is but half over. Let’s see what the rest of the summer, fall and Santa Rally brings.

For August 2018
Last chance to move: Tuesday, 31 July before noon EST
For this coming August, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.42%
Last 20 years: 0.32%
Last 10 years: 0.20%
Last 5 years: 0.18%

August is a pretty good time of year for the G Fund. The 2017 return was 0.19%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.67%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.88%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.61%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.26%, PNR 40%

August is very good for the F Fund. Not the best, but no slouch either. The last 5 years have been a bit disappointing, and account for 3 of the 9 total negative returns for the F Fund during this month. The last time the F Fund had three negative years in any 5 year period in August was in the late ‘90s., then from 2000 – 2012 there was but a single negative year.

The best years were 1991 (2.12%), 2004 (1.88%) and 1993 (1.72%). The worst years were 1989 (-1.48%), 1990 (-1.42%) and 1997 (-0.86%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.78%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.90%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.77%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.95%, PNR 60%

August is hands-down the worst month of the year in terms of CAGR for the C Fund. Others have PNRs that are worse, but none that are this bad for CAGRs.

The best years were 2000 (6.19%), 1994 (4.11%) and 2014 (4.01%). The worst years were 1998 (-14.47%), 1990 (-8.65%) and 2001 (-6.27%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.15%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.69%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.83%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.70%, PNR 40%

Like the C Fund, the S Fund does horribly in July. It’s the worst month for CAGR, and second worst for PNR.

The best years were 2000 (11.16%), 1996 (5.40%) and 2014 (4.98%). The worst years were 1998 (-19.38%), 1990 (-10.05%) and 2011 (-8.12%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -1.57%, PNR 43%
Last 20 years: CAGR -1.23%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.78%, PNR 30%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.79%, PNR 20%

If you thought that the C and S Funds were bad, take a gander at the I Fund. This thing takes the cake – easily the worst month of the year in terms of both CAGR and PNR not just for the I Fund, but for all Funds across all Months.

The best years were 1992 (6.09%), 1993 (5.27%), and 2009 (4.87%). The worst years were 1998 (-12.51%), 1990 (-9.84%), and 2011 (-9.03%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for August 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

Thanks Aitrus.

Thanks. This was pretty much spot on for the I fund in July. Looks like August is a good month to sit on the sidelines for a while and wait for a better buying opportunity.

For those that follow my Fantasy, you'll notice I just made an IFT to F. I just realized this morning that I forgot to change it to F for August. It's been a doozy of a month for me, as I mentioned before.

Here's the delayed results for July. My apologies, I've about done playing catch-up now and should be back on track from here on out.

Seasonal Strategy Results for July 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.25%, 1.62% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jul Total CAGR = 0.42%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.32%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 0.20%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

This was a very good July for the G Fund. The last time June had a return this good was 2009. The last time the G Fund had a return that was a quarter of a percent or better was April 2011. 2017’s return was 0.19%. Of note: The first seven months of 2018 have all been 0.2% or better. The last time that happened was 2011. The last full year of 0.20% or better returns was 2008.

F Fund: 0.04%, -1.52% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 0.73%, PNR 77%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.55%, PNR 75%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 0.74%, PNR 90%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.33%, PNR 80%

This month’s return was sub-par for the F Fund. Despite that, however, July is still arguably the best month of the year for this bond-based Fund. 2017’s return was 0.43%.

C Fund: 3.72%, 6.44% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 1.22%, PNR 55%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.66%, PNR 55%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 2.88%, PNR 80%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 2.02%, PNR 80%

July tends to be hit-and-miss for the C Fund, but when it hits it’s usually at least a double or in-park triple. This year was no different. This year was the biggest return since 2013. 2017’s return was 2.05%.

S Fund: 1.64%, 7.91% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 0.24%, PNR 48%
Jul 20 year CAGR = -0.19%, PNR 40%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 2.15%, PNR 60%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.68%, PNR 60%

This time of year is usually among the worst times to be in the S Fund. This year the Fund bucked the trend. Law of Averages says it should happen on occasion, so this was one of those times. 2017’s return was 1.11%.

I Fund: 2.45%, -0.04% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 1.42%, PNR 68%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.83%, PNR 60%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 3.45%, PNR 80%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 2.08%, PNR 80%

The I Fund tends to do well in July, when the Internationals take a breather from the hellish summer. This year’s return was above average, and almost enough to bring this Fund into the positive for the year thus far. This Fund remains the best of the Stock Funds in July for those that choose to use it. 2017’s return was 2.88%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Jul (3.72%), -1.27% YTD, PIP 5.06%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Jul (2.45%), -0.90% YTD, PIP 5.46%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jul (0.04%), -0.82% YTD, PIP 3.22%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Jul (3.72%), 3.77% YTD, PIP 10.25%
Boltman's Mix: I Fund in Jul (2.45%), 6.09% YTD, PIP 13.98%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jul (0.25%), 0.33% YTD, PIP 7.38%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jul (0.25%), 1.62% YTD

Everybody had a month of positive returns, which hasn’t happened in a while. It also extended Boltman’s lead of the pack, and brings him within striking distance of besting the C and S Funds. The next closest is tmj100’s Mix, and the others are close to positive territory. Another good month will see everybody in the green.

Thank you Aitrus

For September 2018
Last chance to move: Friday, 31 August before noon EST
For this coming September, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.40%
Last 20 years: 0.30%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.17%

September is a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2017 return was 0.17%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.70%, PNR 80%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.59%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.14%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.13%, PNR 40%

September is normally a very good month for the F Fund, but the last few years haven’t been kind. Of the six total negative years on record, fully half of them have been in the last four years. Here’s hoping that the F Fund can get back on track.

The best years were 2003 (2.68%), 1998 (2.36%) and 1988 (2.07%). The worst years were 1994 (-1.47%), 2008 (-1.31%) and 2005 (-1.03%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.19%, PNR 53%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.78%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.07%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.25%, PNR 60%

The C Fund does very badly in September, no bones about it.

The best years were 2010 (8.92%), 1998 (6.33%) and 1996 (5.60%). The worst years were 2002 (-10.87%), 2008 (-8.94%) and 2001 (-8.05%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.00%, PNR 63%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.69%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.25%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.13%, PNR 60%

Bad all around for the S Fund in September.

The best years were 2010 (11.47%), 1998 (7.22%) and 1997 (6.93%). The worst years were 2001 (-12.50%), 2011 (-10.73%) and 2008 (-10.32%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.71%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR -1.08%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.64%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.37%, PNR 60%

Historically, the I Fund continues to be subject to a serious beating in September following the August thrashings.

The best years were 2010 (9.81%), 2013 (7.41%), and 1991 (5.49%). The worst years were 1990 (-14.08%), 2008 (-12.31%), and 2002 (-10.75%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for September 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Remain in the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

Thanks Aitrus.

Seasonal Strategy Results for August 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.26%, 1.89% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Aug Total CAGR = 0.41%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.30%
Aug 10 year CAGR = 0.19%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

This was a very good Aug for the G Fund. The last time August had a return this good was 2009. 2017’s return was 0.19%. Of note: The first eight months of 2018 have all been 0.2% or better. The last time that happened was 2011. The last full year of 0.20% or better returns was 2008.

F Fund: 0.67%, -0.86% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = 0.67%, PNR 71%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.83%, PNR 75%
Aug 10 year CAGR = 0.58%, PNR 70%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.49%, PNR 60%

This month’s return was an average one for the F Fund. 2017’s return was 0.91%.

C Fund: 3.26%, 9.91% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = -0.65%, PNR 61%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.03%, PNR 65%
Aug 10 year CAGR = -0.60%, PNR 60%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.27%, PNR 80%

August tends to be a very bad month for the C Fund, but this year was a very different story. This return is the sixth best one since 1988 for the C Fund. 2017’s return was 0.30%.

S Fund: 4.57%, 12.84% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = 0.00%, PNR 61%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.61%, PNR 60%
Aug 10 year CAGR = -0.60%, PNR 50%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.75%, PNR 60%

This time of year is usually among the worst times to be in the S Fund, but stocks were on a really good run this month. Law of Averages says it should happen on occasion, so this was one of those times. 2017’s return was -0.41%.

I Fund: -1.91%, -1.95% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = -1.58%, PNR 42%
Aug 20 year CAGR = -0.67%, PNR 45%
Aug 10 year CAGR = -1.55%, PNR 30%
Aug 5 year CAGR = -1.91%, PNR 20%

The C and S Funds had a great month, but it didn’t transfer over to the I Fund. This Fund does badly in August, and this month was about average. 2017’s return was -0.03%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Aug (0.67%), -0.61% YTD, PIP 4.81%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Aug (0.67%), -0.23% YTD, PIP 5.21%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Aug (0.67%), -0.15% YTD, PIP 2.97%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Aug (0.67%), 4.47% YTD, PIP 9.99%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Aug (0.67%), 6.80% YTD, PIP 13.71%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Aug (0.26%), 0.59% YTD, PIP 7.45%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Aug (0.26%), 1.89% YTD

All of the normally tracked Mixes were in the F Fund this month, so all had an equal amount of increase. Everybody missed the great gains made in stocks, but missing out on the occasional good runs during the late summer is the price paid for the safety that’s gained.

For October 2018
Last chance to move: Friday, 28 September before noon EST
For this coming October, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.40%
Last 20 years: 0.30%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.18%

September is a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2017 return was 0.19%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.44%, PNR 73%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.14%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.01%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.24%, PNR 80%

October is good in terms of PNRs for the F Fund, but CAGRs are lacking. This is a transitional month for the markets. The switch from summer doldrums to autumn earnings seasons always seems to happen at different times each year.

The best years were 1989 (2.45%), 1996 (2.21%) and 2001 (2.12%). The worst years were 2008 (-2.40%), 1992 (-1.30%) and 2003 (-1.00%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.55%, PNR 67%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.09%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.74%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 3.15%, PNR 80%

The C Fund does well in October, and always seems to be just shy of being in “good” territory. The long term CAGRs are good, and PNRs are oh-so-close. This month also holds the worse single month return on record for the C Fund: -16.83% in 2008. That dismal return is balanced out by the C Fund’s second best all time monthly return in October as well: 10.93% in 2011.

The best years were 2011 (10.93%), 2002 (8.77%) and 2015 (8.45%). The worst years were 2008 (-16.83%), 1997 (-3.38%) and 1989 (-2.33%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.40%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.09%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.31%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.99%, PNR 80%

The S Fund is usually a few weeks behind in waking up from summer. October also holds the dubious honor of having the worst single monthly return not just for the S Fund, but for all the Funds: -20.99% in 2008.

The best years were 2011 (14.09%), 2003 (7.65%) and 1998 (5.68%). The worst years were 2008 (-20.99%), 2000 (-8.17%) and 2009 (-5.51%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.29%, PNR 63%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.54%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.30%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.82%, PNR 60%

The I Fund does ok in October. That said, this month also holds the worst month of the year for the I Fund (which also doubles as the second worst month return for all Funds as well): -20.59 in 2008.

The best years were 1990 (15.40%), 1998 (10.28%), and 2011 (9.48%). The worst years were 2008 (-20.59%), 1997 (-7.81%), and 1992 (-5.40%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for October 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Move to the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

From here on out, the Mixes take a different approach to the end of the year. It’s these last three months that often determine who will win the annual race. Here is what the Mixes all do for October, November and December:

Jahby: C/C/S
gclapper: C/C/S
TSPCenter: F/C/S
tmj100: C/S/S
Boltman: C/S/I
Sell in May: C/C/C
G all Year: G/G/S