Who's Following What?

General TSP Discussion.

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nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Who's Following What?

Post by nrialto »

Now that the new year is upon us, for of those of you who are following a TSPCalc strategy, which one have you decided to follow?

For 2019, I'm going with # 57110. Fairly conservative, yet good returns. And only 14 negative months since 2004.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by fordest »

And only 37% of the time in Stocks. Pretty nice. I hadn't thought to count the number of negative months.... My choice for 2019 has 38 negative months... yikes...

#54030
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by fordest »

Negative months got me playing with the builder. Look at #58982. It's only 10.8% in stocks. A mean of only 15.65 but StD of only 4.55 and only 6 negative months out of the last 180 months.

Looking at the calendar though, makes it look like you have to get very lucky to get gains on the few days it goes into CSI. But if it's luck, then it's been lucky on those days so far.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

mango72
Posts: 55
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:44 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by mango72 »

fordest wrote:Negative months got me playing with the builder. Look at #58982. It's only 10.8% in stocks. A mean of only 15.65 but StD of only 4.55 and only 6 negative months out of the last 180 months.

Looking at the calendar though, makes it look like you have to get very lucky to get gains on the few days it goes into CSI. But if it's luck, then it's been lucky on those days so far.

With my luck, i'll hit the down days during the entire 10.8% im in CSI...

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by nrialto »

fordest; looks good. It seems to me that may be a great plan for someone in or near retirement. I'll also say that, as conservative as it is, it averages 1% or more every month.

Edit: I incorporated the "June" from that strategy into 57110. It came out with: #59063... a slight improvement from 57110.

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jimcasada
Posts: 284
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by jimcasada »

I basically just follow my gut. I've gone back to my old strategy of just sitting in -G- or -F- most of the time and waiting for a good dip, then try to get in & out quickly for the rebound. It's served me well last year. I don't trust this market to stay up much more than a couple of days at a time lately.

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by Scarfinger »

nrialto wrote:Now that the new year is upon us, for of those of you who are following a TSPCalc strategy, which one have you decided to follow?

For 2019, I'm going with # 57110. Fairly conservative, yet good returns. And only 14 negative months since 2004.
I am going to try 55015 for now. only 33 (-) months since 2004? Until otherwise notified. It's a fluid environment.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by nrialto »

Currently following #59063.

Anyone come across any daily strategies lately they really like?

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bamablue
Posts: 246
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by bamablue »

I'm sticking with #7980 for my 'real money'. My fantasy account is not correlated to my real money. I'm more risk averse with my real money.

Last year was an outlier and even with all of the volatility, #7980 still finished on the plus side of the ledger.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by fordest »

Good ol' 7980. Along with BnH 2030 (and Mr. Imperfect) it's my standard to beat. Cuz I was following it once... then I thought I got smarter than 7980... apparently not...
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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Billionair
Posts: 271
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by Billionair »

57110 me!
-What we do in Life, echoes in Retirement-

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Correct me if I wrong, doesn't 7980 takes the position that the market will proceed up for the next 30 days? I admire a person with that much faith.

There is some “wisdom of the crowd” methodology saying that stocks are probably still overvalued. I am not going to say what I will do tomorrow let alone for a whole month.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

#57171....
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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bamablue
Posts: 246
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by bamablue »

Tomanyiron wrote:Correct me if I wrong, doesn't 7980 takes the position that the market will proceed up for the next 30 days? I admire a person with that much faith.

There is some “wisdom of the crowd” methodology saying that stocks are probably still overvalued. I am not going to say what I will do tomorrow let alone for a whole month.
You're correct. Transition to the S fund on Friday (January 18th). This follows the cyclic bump after the santa claus rally fizzles... will it happen this year? I thought I was smarter than #7980 last year. This year, I'm resigned to think a lot less!

23V23C
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:13 pm

Re: Who's Following What?

Post by 23V23C »

I'm thinking 58375 or 57491 flavored with 7980 along the way.

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FundPriceDayYTD
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