TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

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NUC SHARK
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:02 pm

TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by NUC SHARK »

ok, time to brag about your favorite strategy flavor of the month. i've seen talk regarding strats 119156 and 88676. but the IFTs don't seem to be too consistent with those strats. share what you think is the hot strategy going into the Fall/Winter season.... :shock: :wink: :?:

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Snapdragon
Posts: 247
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by Snapdragon »

93267

NUC SHARK
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:02 pm

Re: TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by NUC SHARK »

ok...a few days offset for I-fund move given the mass movement today for IFT on 16th, but interesting thx

September:
S Fund on 2nd I Fund on 11th G on 14th

October:
I Fund on 8th C Fund on 9th G on None

November:
G Fund on 5th S Fund on 13th G on EOM

December:
S Fund on 10th I Fund on 17th G on None

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Snapdragon
Posts: 247
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by Snapdragon »

With the strategies I look at, they are very similar for the rest of the year. One of the biggest differences is December. 105886 moves to S on 10th for only 1 day and then it goes to I for the rest of the month

daemon
Posts: 56
Joined: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:26 pm

Re: TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by daemon »

I like 85660 because of its low STD. Now I may be wrong but with a mean around 28 and it currently at 12.61, even if it gets to the minimum in the 14 year period which is over 24, it should gain an additional 12% through the end of the year correct?
When the water runs deep my little dog frolics. When shallow, she drinks

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bloobs
Posts: 1616
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by bloobs »

daemon wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:08 pm I like 85660 because of its low STD. Now I may be wrong but with a mean around 28 and it currently at 12.61, even if it gets to the minimum in the 14 year period which is over 24, it should gain an additional 12% through the end of the year correct?
Maybe.

Just keep in mind the statistical math behind TSPCALC strategies does not infer "prediction" of future outcomes. All it says is that, based on past sample data (e.g. daily TSP fund share price change patterns tracked over 15 years), there is a greater likelihood of a future outcome (e.g. annual returns) falling within a range (e.g. the mean +/- its standard deviation.)

No future outcome can be guaranteed--it just attempts to quantify the likelihood of it occurring.

But its still better than tarot cards, tea leaves, or Jim Cramer :D

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RugbyLarry
The Bearded Legend
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:32 pm

Re: TSPCalc Strategy Flavors

Post by RugbyLarry »

66909 is my baseline for decision-making.

G, C & S only. I consider I-Fund only for Christmas week. F-Fund typically doesn't fit the "short term parking" style that comes with seasonal investing. (for me anyway)

"Only" 15 IFTs. I started looking at this idea for a few reasons. It's a new concept for me this year, but I like it so far.

Sorted by total, rather than mean, and accepting of higher SD (10 ish)

66909 was in the top ten regardless of year groups evaluated.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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