Is the sh*t starting to hit the fan?

[GoRedSox]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... rcent.html

[MakeMe$$$$]

the bright side, namely that I'm buying more and more shares for cheaper and cheaper.

I'm 33. This isn't the first hit, and not the last. Stick to the plan and everybody relacks. We'll make it.

Video on running Stops. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZ5ILvY-Cj0

[MakeMe$$$$]

Monday night...

Fasten your seat belts. Dow futures tumble over 800 points.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/06/investi ... index.html

It is getting a bit ugly out there.

[n.shift]

I think it is just panic selling. Nothing in the improving economy has changed since the all time highs a week ago. That leads me to believe that when this selling stops we will have a rush for everyone to get back in soon.

The one thing that has changed in the economy is wage growth. It’s increased on average of around 2.9%. That’s good for the economy. But Wall Street and the economy are 2 different things. Since wage growth has grown so quick, it’s taking away from corporate profits, therefore the stock market is taking a hit.

[Chulke]

I think a lot of what we are seeing is the robot/ algorithmic selling of investors who have set their accounts to sell if it reaches a certain level. More than likely, some big time investor/s with big money in the market had set a sell here/ at this price trigger....the market hit that price point and so the trigger was pulled and we had a tumble from about -800pts down to -1600pts down at one point...

Now what you are seeing is other smaller investors had their stop loss triggers pulled which further capitulated the downward momentum...Stay the course and don't over think this market...in fact now is a great time to be buying in and increasing your share count at lower prices.

Cause this thing is going to go back up eventually because all the major market indicators are saying our economy is picking up speed...Buy low sell high...that's how this market works...


Nerves of steel being tested though for sure right now! LOL!

Currently sitting in the S fund just biting my nails hoping for a turn around soon!!! LOL!!!


Happy investing to all!

[marine234]

Hopefully people can find the will to hold on and not sell because they think selling and taking a big loss, then buying low will make them money. My experience is that it takes a long long time to get back what you lost and honestly, I think the time has long past to pull that trigger.

[cswift01]

Don't move your money to G. You're selling at a loss. It's irrational. Stay calm. Manage your emotions. People who moved money to safer investments in 2008 and 2009 missed out on a lot of gains. Think of it as getting to buy cheaper stocks again! Stick with your plan!

I'm not a financial advisor, but I did just finish 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics winner, Richard Thaler, books Nudge and Misbehaving. So his wise words are fresh in my mind.

Good suggestion. I'm working on Shiller. His work is really nice too.

[cswift01]

I'm really curious to see if there's a correlation between the crypto market and the general stock market. There has been a huge slide in the crypto market and that coincided with the general stock market. I sincerely doubt the cryptos were affected by the wage growth. Maybe the fact that several Asian markets are blocking crypto trading at the same time as wage growth and a few other factors are causing the uncertainty to increase?

Fun stuff...

[bamablue]

The market appears to be fighting for a rally today... I'm not one to go down with the (financial) ship, but I'm hanging onto the S Fund. The market fundamentals appear to be unchanged... there was no black swan event, or international market crisis.

I'm sure the Captain of the Titanic was optimistic, until the last lifeboat hit the water... Hopefully, this isn't the Titanic.

[Raven19x]

I'm really curious to see if there's a correlation between the crypto market and the general stock market. There has been a huge slide in the crypto market and that coincided with the general stock market. I sincerely doubt the cryptos were affected by the wage growth. Maybe the fact that several Asian markets are blocking crypto trading at the same time as wage growth and a few other factors are causing the uncertainty to increase?

Fun stuff...

Crypto started the plunge in January and hasn't stopped since. The markets were pretty nice for January.

[droplogic]

Well, I'm down almost 7% so far, so I might as well hang on. I'm still following plan #19269. I'm hoping it will turn around today. Seems to be respecting the pivot levels. Turned down at the YR1 and bounced off the YPP and DS2. Hopefully, those levels hold.

[seawatcher]

What resources do you use to decide when and how much to do inter-fund transfers. I see a lot of web sites have paid subscriptions but I guess no one has a crystal ball to predict the future. I'd like information that explains why to allocate to different tsp funds, not just tell me the allocation. I really don't know much about the stock market.

It sure is upsetting to see all of January's gains gone in a few days of February. But, I'm keeping my allocation the same 70% C, 15% S, 15% I. Today, looking at money.com, the S&P and DOW looks like it's going up right now, but maybe it will be back down at the end of the day.

In January, I was thinking about an inter-fund transfer to move about half of TSP funds from the C, S, I to the G fund with the idea of moving it all back to C, S, I if the market went down. Almost did the transfer, then the C,S fund had that huge increase at the end of January so I thought I'd wait a little longer... then came the February plunge. I sure missed that boat!

With maybe 10 more years before retirement (and part-time work), I wonder if I should in the L Funds. Then again, I might just decide to work longer and use my vacation time well during my older years!

[Scarfinger]

Well, I'm down almost 7% so far, so I might as well hang on. I'm still following plan #19269. I'm hoping it will turn around today. Seems to be respecting the pivot levels. Turned down at the YR1 and bounced off the YPP and DS2. Hopefully, those levels hold.

I almost know how you feel. My buddy started in DEC 2015 and caught the ride down for a -13%. He was not using any strategy back then and he was stressed about the decline. He held strong and eventual ended up +10% for year 2016. He now uses the Monthly "clapper" strategy.

He is wrestling with the idea of just sticking with a buy and hold vs seasonal this year. Monthly "Clapper" goes to "C" in March.

I am planning on sticking with a daily strategy myself. Modified a little bit only based on TSP Allocation's recommendation that "C" and "I" may do better than "S" this year. Still to be determined but... I feel a lot better having a plan. These 2% and 4% drops have not even bothered me compared to at least one coworker thinking that the world is ending.

Best of luck!

[Carmen909]

Don't move your money to G. You're selling at a loss. It's irrational. Stay calm. Manage your emotions. People who moved money to safer investments in 2008 and 2009 missed out on a lot of gains. Think of it as getting to buy cheaper stocks again! Stick with your plan!

I'm not a financial advisor, but I did just finish 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics winner, Richard Thaler, books Nudge and Misbehaving. So his wise words are fresh in my mind.

Good suggestion. I'm working on Shiller. His work is really nice too.

I like Schiller, too.