Friday
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: Friday
Again, I don't buy and hold. Buy and hold is just the benchmark. I'm not promoting buy and hold, only using it to try and determine if there's any real benefit to seasonal strategies above just leaving your money in stocks and forgetting about it. That's the baseline assuming you don't want to just sit in G fund forever which I don't think anyone would advocate. How exactly am I emotional? I'm not making any claims. I'm looking for proof to support YOUR claims. I haven't made any claims that I'm aware of.
I hear a lot of commentary but don't see a lot of proof and I don't know who David or Matt are or who this mystery member is with the rolling seasonal method you describe. All sounds very anecdotal, no? Using history to schedule your IFTs is 100% hindsight. I'm not sure how you can claim otherwise. Hindsight can be a useful tool, granted, but let's not call seasonals something other than what they are. The seasonal strategy table on the right side of the main page of TSPCalc defaults to list the various strategies in descending order starting from the best performer. I don't know if it runs every possible scenario and tells you what's best or if it only logs scenarios users have entered manually. Either way, the site uses past data (hindsight) and lists out the best performing scenarios in descending order (Mr. Perfect). You may be a very good public servant and great with spreadsheets but man you'd make a terrible lawyer. Perhaps that's a good thing?
Anyway, I guess I figured with SO MANY people using seasonal strategies, SOMEONE would have a fantasy TSP account showing actual returns beating buy and hold over an extended period of at least a few years. I do admit the Kupcho strategy has performed very well with a very low deviation number. That's definitely intriguing to me.
I hear a lot of commentary but don't see a lot of proof and I don't know who David or Matt are or who this mystery member is with the rolling seasonal method you describe. All sounds very anecdotal, no? Using history to schedule your IFTs is 100% hindsight. I'm not sure how you can claim otherwise. Hindsight can be a useful tool, granted, but let's not call seasonals something other than what they are. The seasonal strategy table on the right side of the main page of TSPCalc defaults to list the various strategies in descending order starting from the best performer. I don't know if it runs every possible scenario and tells you what's best or if it only logs scenarios users have entered manually. Either way, the site uses past data (hindsight) and lists out the best performing scenarios in descending order (Mr. Perfect). You may be a very good public servant and great with spreadsheets but man you'd make a terrible lawyer. Perhaps that's a good thing?
Anyway, I guess I figured with SO MANY people using seasonal strategies, SOMEONE would have a fantasy TSP account showing actual returns beating buy and hold over an extended period of at least a few years. I do admit the Kupcho strategy has performed very well with a very low deviation number. That's definitely intriguing to me.
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Re: Friday
No one is arguing it’s not hindsight.
It seems to me you’ve come to a gunfight with a banana. Maybe take a look at some of the pinned posts, seasonal musings, etc to get some back history before coming here looking for a fight on legitimacy. You weren’t even aware of TSPCalc before you began these discussions.
What was your PIP last year? What strategy methods do you employ? Fantasy TSP I could honestly care less about. I make these moves in my real TSP and have had great results.
It seems to me you’ve come to a gunfight with a banana. Maybe take a look at some of the pinned posts, seasonal musings, etc to get some back history before coming here looking for a fight on legitimacy. You weren’t even aware of TSPCalc before you began these discussions.
What was your PIP last year? What strategy methods do you employ? Fantasy TSP I could honestly care less about. I make these moves in my real TSP and have had great results.
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
Yoda
Re: Friday
banana to a gunfight... not even a knife
Re: Friday
Who's looking for a fight? Just because you can't articulate proof in a convincing and concise way utilizing data and facts doesn't mean I should just believe you. Since going down this path I've found some info on my own, some data and proof and numbers...not Matt and David and a 6 pack of beer. I never made any claims...just asked questions and expressed skepticism and sought data. I'm happy to put my own moves up against anyone. Plenty will beat me and that's ok but at least put some returns up to prove it. As for my strategy, I look for market trends and analyze momentum in the medium to short term and base my fund allocation on these readings. In strong bull markets I typically leave my money in stocks with some variety between C/S/I. In sideways markets I look to trade oscillations with a bias towards safety while looking to secure 1-2% gains per month and in bear markets, which I haven't yet experienced in TSP having started with the govt in 2009, I'll look to park in G and/or F and ride it out. My PIP last year isn't applicable because I had to park in G for a few months for personal reasons I won't get into. 2016 was very close to my fantasy account...about 1.5% higher due to a missed IFT here on the fantasy site. I do try to keep my fantasy aligned with my real TSP but that's not always possible of course.
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- Posts: 102
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Re: Friday
Take a look at MJedlin66. 2016,17,18 are all following daily seasonal strategy.
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."
Yoda
Yoda
Re: Friday
Whoa, whoa, whoa... hold on.
How are you doing the impossible? I’ve never been able to make a six pack last four hours.
How are you doing the impossible? I’ve never been able to make a six pack last four hours.
Last edited by nrialto on Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Friday
No because I'd be selling at a loss. I'm not doing any interfund trades for a loss. I'm not here to lose money.
Re: Friday
HAHA I'm with you on this one. One year on the strategy I'm following the performance was down over 7% by the end of February. However, over the next 2 months of March and April it went up 23% and over 40% for the year.rdavid wrote:Yeah, I'm a sucker for punishment so moving to F. Can't wait to lose more money!
I'm holding to my guns. If the daily strategy shoots me in the foot this year, I'll never go back to it again and ride out the 80-C, 10-S, and 10-I funds 'til I retire in 25 years.
Once ya pop, ya can't stop.
Re: Friday
Small point of order: I started following Jahby's Mix in mid 2014, and even then not perfectly. Before that I was market timing a-la the "blindfolded hitter swinging at softball pitches" method. In other words, I was trying, but didn't really know what I was doing.XAMOTOMAX wrote:I've read lots of words. But Aitrus isn't beating buy and hold...at least going back roughly 1000 trading days since 2012 when his fantasy account started. Any other suggestions?
My 2014 - 2016 returns show what happens when you deviate from the strategy, as I foolishly did in 2015 and twice in 2016. In addition, the site has had glitches over the years that further skew the results. Don't judge whether or not the system is mathematically sound based on my history.
I deliberately did not reset my Fantasy in 2014 or in 2016, even though a few suggested I should. I wanted to be fully transparent, peeople deserve that from the person they are getting investing information from. I'm human, and very fallible - just ask my wife of 20 years (as of the 14th).
My suggestion is to use the numbers and history I present because those are the exact results the system generates. My Fantasy history is an example of one human's imperfect use of that system.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
Support the site by purchasing a membership at TSPCalc! https://tspcalc.com
Re: Friday
Getting back to the original topic of IFT'ing today; does any one have historical market data on the trading days before and after the President's Day holiday? If it's shown to do poorly the day after, I may just IFT today as well.
Re: Friday
I just looked back at the last 5 years through TSPCalc for performance of C and S after the holiday, and it was about 50/50. I was on the fence but figured I'll just follow my strat and move to G for a week.nrialto wrote:Getting back to the original topic of IFT'ing today; does any one have historical market data on the trading days before and after the President's Day holiday? If it's shown to do poorly the day after, I may just IFT today as well.
I was surprised by the number of people IFTing to C today with 37% of the moves. Any ideas?
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Re: Friday
I'm following #17842, which has me in S until next Wednesday, then moving to G. This has been a great week for the S fund, and I'm hesitant to think the gains will continue into next week. But.... sticking with the plan!
Re: Friday
Possibly greed or FOMO. I think those waiting for confirmation of the market direction decide the markets are back on track. I increased amount in stocks yesterday, loosely based on one of the daily strategies that was based on what worked best last year.Ofsthun01 wrote:I was surprised by the number of people IFTing to C today with 37% of the moves. Any ideas?
Re: Friday
nrialto wrote:Whoa, whoa, whoa... hold on.
How are you doing the impossible? I’ve never been able to make a six pack last four hours.
LOL!...Those were my thoughts exactly. Maybe that's why I haven't been very successful with my TSP. I have to learn to stretch out the libations...
Fund Prices2024-04-16
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.24% |
F | $18.58 | -0.32% | -3.33% |
C | $79.08 | -0.21% | 6.34% |
S | $76.95 | -0.41% | -0.18% |
I | $40.73 | -0.98% | 1.37% |
L2065 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.66% |
L2060 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2055 | $15.68 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2050 | $31.50 | -0.44% | 2.93% |
L2045 | $14.38 | -0.41% | 2.81% |
L2040 | $52.59 | -0.38% | 2.72% |
L2035 | $13.91 | -0.35% | 2.60% |
L2030 | $46.37 | -0.32% | 2.50% |
L2025 | $12.95 | -0.18% | 1.90% |
Linc | $25.31 | -0.14% | 1.64% |