Friday

General TSP Discussion.

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utmaverick
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2008 5:21 pm

Friday

Post by utmaverick »

Just wanted to see how many of you guys are going to jump ship out of the S on Friday being that many of the strategies call for a move.

Humberson
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:49 pm

Re: Friday

Post by Humberson »

Yup, headed to the F fund for a week. Just following the strategy, second guessing yourself and only looking at the market is futile unless you are a professional broker.

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bamablue
Posts: 246
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2012 11:40 am

Re: Friday

Post by bamablue »

I'm in 7980... The plan calls for a move to F fund for 4 trading days, then to the S fund for two days, then a retreat to G for 9 trading days. Yeah... that's a little funky.

I have no plan to go to F, so I'm mulling remaining in the S fund or a move to C or I.

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jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: Friday

Post by jlozano042 »

Following quite a few strategies, more as a guide than actual decision maker. Most of them have me going into "F" (which that ain't going to happen), while the rest has me in "S" and lastly "C".

I'm still wiping all of the spit and throw-up on my face and hair from the wild roller-coaster plunge down so I think I am going to stay ... and let it ride! :oops:

40%S - 40%I - 20%C

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Friday

Post by Scarfinger »

utmaverick wrote:Just wanted to see how many of you guys are going to jump ship out of the S on Friday being that many of the strategies call for a move.
I am considering the move Friday. Daily says to go "F". I probably will go "G"
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: Friday

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

Maybe I'm naïve but these daily seasonal strategies just seem nuts to me. It seems like trying to recreate past history on a daily level and I just don't see how that could possibly work out in one's favor. Maybe there's more to it but It just seems like snake oil to me. Granted, trying to trade the market isn't for everyone but are all these seasonal and daily strategies better than buy and hold? Is there even enough history or data to really know? Anyway, rant over.

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Friday

Post by Travis1984 »

I’ll be moving Friday.
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

kshawk
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:18 am

Re: Friday

Post by kshawk »

I am moving Friday. Following 7980 this year. I can't follow the market so hopefully history will repeat itself.
Following #7980 http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7980

Currently in S Fund.

rgoodin66
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:14 pm

Re: Friday

Post by rgoodin66 »

which strategy are you guys referring to?

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TSP Jedi
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:53 pm

Re: Friday

Post by TSP Jedi »

most strats move on Friday or Wed...... I say Friday is the best bet and i’m willing to bet March will be a +5% month

rdavid
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:16 pm

Re: Friday

Post by rdavid »

Yeah, I'm a sucker for punishment so moving to F. Can't wait to lose more money!

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Snapdragon
Posts: 247
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: Friday

Post by Snapdragon »

rgoodin66 wrote:which strategy are you guys referring to?
tspcalc.com

For example 7980 and 15535 come from there

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Friday

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Following: #28484.. zero F

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=28484

So yup... the G it is for Presidents Day week.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: Friday

Post by Octjan2 »

Going to wait and see how things pan out this week. My inclination is to stay in S until at least the end of the month to hopefully recoup some of the losses. I think we still may have some upside. If the CPI comes in a little low we may be off to the races. God help us if it shows inflation is rising more than expected.

Humberson
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:49 pm

Re: Friday

Post by Humberson »

XAMOTOMAX wrote:Maybe I'm naïve but these daily seasonal strategies just seem nuts to me. It seems like trying to recreate past history on a daily level and I just don't see how that could possibly work out in one's favor. Maybe there's more to it but It just seems like snake oil to me. Granted, trying to trade the market isn't for everyone but are all these seasonal and daily strategies better than buy and hold? Is there even enough history or data to really know? Anyway, rant over.
Yes, seasonal strategies are absolutely better than buy and hold. It goes off of historical data and statistics, not just smoke and mirrors. Most seasonal strategies, if you had followed them since the data collection started in 2004, have over 4000% compound return and around a 30% mean on growth. To simplify it, it uses the historical data to say this index is statistically better this time of the month than any other fund. For example, July has been historically bad for the S fund, it has been positive very few times in its history. You mean to tell me you feel more comfortable just buying and holding knowing this? Just let the data do the work for you and use it as a guide.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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