Looking back

[PhilJohn]

I was strongly considering running to G Fund since early Feb when the market was tanking. Instead, I moved out of I fund and went to S. It was a hard decision since I watched so many running to G. I'm glad I have stood strong because I'm now back in the red and I feel very optimistic. I also ditched the Dailey in favor of a modified buy and hold and I think it's going to really pay off, but we will see. I'm just wondering if people that went to G are regretting that decision or feel good where they are?

[XAMOTOMAX]

Market is range bound at the moment. March is historically good but last year was not. Friday may bring some pain as I expect another strong wage growth number which will stoke inflation fears blah blah. There's lots of "extra-curricular" stuff going on with the trade war/tariff situation, rate hikes, potential for oil prices to fall again with US production continuing to rise, etc. All of that is secondary to a market that has simply gone through the roof the last few years and is due for a pull back. Big money investors don't make big money in boring bull markets. The big money is made during volatile times and we're long over due for that. Me personally, I need to see a higher (all time) high or a drop below the 200 day MA...otherwise we're in a sideways market and unless you're successfully trading oscillations it won't matter much if you're in stocks or in G.

[cswift01]

I ran to the G a few days ago with a few percentages remaining in each equity. Too much winning for me...

[ewok55]

I'm just wondering if people that went to G are regretting that decision or feel good where they are?

Yup ... The more I look into the Dailies and experiment with my Fantasy TSP, the more I'm inclined to do a 60/20/20 C/S/I buy and hold. It's not easy seeing S go up every time I go to G, and have it decline every time I switch back to S. Am looking forward to somebody telling me, in December 2018, that I should have followed strategy 40852, which no doubt will have averaged above 30% return since 2003 and less than 10 std. .

[XAMOTOMAX]

Buy and hold and bail on the bear markets is the best strat IMO.

[jlozano042]

Is it possible .... somehow ... we've all been warped to another dimension and we really should be doing the opposite of what our daily tells/guides us to do?

Today would put those in C/S roughly inline with those who went to G last week. The desire is to jump to C/S/I but I know it will bottom out when I do. Have to hold off until next week ... or get warped to another dimension where there is no TSP ... and there is no spoon.

[PhilJohn]

I hear that. I've been burned so many times trying to time it. Was going to try the Dailey but I just ended up staying in. I might however go back if I get ahead enough this month. I don't know, it's been a strange season but I am glad I didn't panic and sell.

[crondanet5]

Phil you are not in the Fantasy Game? How can we follow your moves?

[PhilJohn]

Haven't tried the fantasy thing yet. I'm pretty new at this so I'm probably the last person anyone should follow.

[XAMOTOMAX]

If your brain is told the steak is juicy and delicious, isn't that all that matters? lol

Best comment I've heard about seasonal investing strategies is that they work...until they don't. It really just comes down to a making a bet. I bet stocks will go up, I'm in. I bet stocks will go down, I'm out. To some, they are betting that what happened in the past will happen again. Maybe that's a good bet. I don't know. What happened yesterday or last month or last year doesn't affect your returns at all...only what happens tomorrow IMO. Selling lower than you bought is good as long as you can buy back even lower and same for buying higher than where you sold...ok as long as you can sell for even higher. But you have to ask yourself if you want to be a trader or an investor. Investors don't time the market but they do hedge and missing some gains parked in G when it looks like the ish is going to hit the fan is nothing more than limiting risk exposure...a hedge...insurance. These things cost money. We don't buy life insurance because we're scared of scraping our knees. We buy it because there's a very real chance we're going to kick the bucket any day and we want our loved ones to be protected if that happens. Same applies to the market. If you're an investor, you shouldn't go to G unless you're scared there's going to be a major crash or prolonged bear market. If you do and you get it wrong and miss some returns, that's just the price of an insurance premium or a hedge IMO. If you're a trader, well that's a different story.

[PhilJohn]

I like how you broke that down, makes a lot of sense.

[mmmmmbeer]

Just a little perspective for our FOMO (fear of missing out) folks ...

Many of our daily strategies took us into the G on Feb 28th.. since then (not counting today):

S = +0.76%
C= -0.82%
I= -2.18%
F= +0.08%
G= +0.05%

Three or four more market days to see what happens until most of us are back in the market 100% for the next two months... I think we're just fine.

[Octjan2]

Just a little perspective for our FOMO (fear of missing out) folks ...

Many of our daily strategies took us into the G on Feb 28th.. since then (not counting today):

S = +0.76%
C= -0.82%
I= -2.18%
F= +0.08%
G= +0.05%

Three or four more market days to see what happens until most of us are back in the market 100% for the next two months... I think we're just fine.

And the markets may struggle a little the next couple of days now that Gary Cohn is leaving and the tariff issues make their way back into the news after Trump’s reinforcement of it late before the close (futures dropped over 1% right after announcement). For once I got lucky and rode out some gains before putting in my transfer to G before noon. Hopefully we get a good price to buy back in to S on Friday.

[XAMOTOMAX]

This is huge. Futures are down 1.5%. Head and shoulders just formed in the SP500 daily going back to Feb 13. I'm betting we test the 200 day MA again. I'm bailing tomorrow.

[jlozano042]

Just a little perspective for our FOMO (fear of missing out) folks ...

Many of our daily strategies took us into the G on Feb 28th.. since then (not counting today):

S = +0.76%
C= -0.82%
I= -2.18%
F= +0.08%
G= +0.05%

Three or four more market days to see what happens until most of us are back in the market 100% for the next two months... I think we're just fine.

Thanks for posting and making sense of what I tried to say in my previous post. Even today there was a bump for C/S/I - but my gut says it will swing low and come up when the majority pops in early next week.