I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

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XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

Me personally, I'm a little leary of buying after a quick run up in price but in this instance I think there is technical room to the upside and can justify buying here. But to answer your original question, people consider being in G fund when they don't want to expose their funds to risk. It's really that simple. There are a myriad of reasons as to why someone may take that position but assuming it's liberal news is a tad short sighted.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by Octjan2 »

Yeah, it does suck always buying in after these big gains, but it sucks even more sitting on the sidelines watching everybody else make money. I just hope we don’t get burned again like we did in February. I decided to not look at it until the end of the month. This daily obsession is exhaustive and unproductive.

XAMOTOMAX
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:00 am

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

I enjoy the analysis and action myself but I didn't do anything all of 2017...didn't look at my TSP, didn't come here, didn't pay any attention to the market except to quickly look and see another up day, or the occasional tiny down day, and that was it. We're still in a bull market and the default position should be in stocks right now IMO but I'm ready to protect my funds if need be and we're starting to see oscillations that can present some trading opportunities if you can stomach getting it wrong sometimes. I got my Feb trade right (didn't get it put in on my fantasy...sold to G Feb 6 and bought back Feb 12) and I got this one wrong but IMO the risk to the downside, particularly with the jobs report, needed to be hedged.

mindofmush
Posts: 353
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:38 pm

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by mindofmush »

Octjan2 wrote:Yeah, it does suck always buying in after these big gains, but it sucks even more sitting on the sidelines watching everybody else make money. I just hope we don’t get burned again like we did in February. I decided to not look at it until the end of the month. This daily obsession is exhaustive and unproductive.
No, no, no, it's not unproductive and it's not exhaustive; it is VITAL to investing. (Just ask max)

It doesn't matter if you fear loss when the market is going down and that you fear missing out when the market is going up. It doesn't matter if you study charts or follow the "news" or follow your gut because it's all the same; all that matters is whether you're right or wrong. (Just ask max)

Just remember that greed is good and if you don't have any pain in your gut, then you're just not living.

User avatar
jlozano042
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:37 pm

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by jlozano042 »

mindofmush wrote:
Octjan2 wrote:Yeah, it does suck always buying in after these big gains, but it sucks even more sitting on the sidelines watching everybody else make money. I just hope we don’t get burned again like we did in February. I decided to not look at it until the end of the month. This daily obsession is exhaustive and unproductive.
No, no, no, it's not unproductive and it's not exhaustive; it is VITAL to investing. (Just ask max)

It doesn't matter if you fear loss when the market is going down and that you fear missing out when the market is going up. It doesn't matter if you study charts or follow the "news" or follow your gut because it's all the same; all that matters is whether you're right or wrong. (Just ask max)

Just remember that greed is good and if you don't have any pain in your gut, then you're just not living.
Wise words right here.

Octjan2
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:01 pm

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by Octjan2 »

Yeah, but it doesn’t feel any better that the majority of those following strategies are buying in at 50 points higher than they sold in the S fund. 50 POINTS!!! That is 3.5% less. Not good and risky as h**. The strat I followed before the seasonals was to never sell for less then I bought. I would get 16% gains. I know this is not the 25% average over the past 14 years for daily seasonals, but it was guaranteed. Are these strategies guaranteed? I’m beginning to think we could loose our a** this year. We shall see.

mindofmush
Posts: 353
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:38 pm

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by mindofmush »

Octjan2 wrote:Yeah, but it doesn’t feel any better that the majority of those following strategies are buying in at 50 points higher than they sold in the S fund. 50 POINTS!!! That is 3.5% less. Not good and risky as h**. The strat I followed before the seasonals was to never sell for less then I bought. I would get 16% gains. I know this is not the 25% average over the past 14 years for daily seasonals, but it was guaranteed. Are these strategies guaranteed? I’m beginning to think we could loose our a** this year. We shall see.

The best plan is the one you believe in...

...if you have no confidence in your plan, it will crumble at the first sign of resistance.
mo meng, mo ching (which loosely means: no money, no life)

PhilJohn
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by PhilJohn »

The more I follow it, the more I'm not a believer in any Dailey strategy. I think there is something to be said about keeping things simple. Buy in bull markets and don't sell when it corrects. I've made 1 IFT this year (started in I, IFT to S on Feb 8th) and it went as expected.

evarose05
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:53 pm

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by evarose05 »

Has anyone been using a strategy for a year or more consistently, with the success that that they claim for returns? I've been using 19046 since the beginning of the year and it's had very poor results. I'm just glad it's not my real money. I'm skeptical of the strategy's claims from even the last recession of maintaining 25% plus returns. Most everyone on this site that's doing well seems to just be doing their own idea of what's a winner.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by mmmmmbeer »

evarose05 wrote:Has anyone been using a strategy for a year or more consistently, with the success that that they claim for returns? I've been using 19046 since the beginning of the year and it's had very poor results. I'm just glad it's not my real money. I'm skeptical of the strategy's claims from even the last recession of maintaining 25% plus returns. Most everyone on this site that's doing well seems to just be doing their own idea of what's a winner.

Yes... got 23.21% last year. This year has had a weird start for sure . Guess we'll see where we are on Dec 31.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

PhilJohn
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by PhilJohn »

XAMOTOMAX wrote:Me personally, I'm a little leary of buying after a quick run up in price but in this instance I think there is technical room to the upside and can justify buying here. But to answer your original question, people consider being in G fund when they don't want to expose their funds to risk. It's really that simple. There are a myriad of reasons as to why someone may take that position but assuming it's liberal news is a tad short sighted.

PhilJohn
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:38 am

Re: I got that deer in the headlights look, Ift advice, help

Post by PhilJohn »

I think short sighted is being in G Fund during the most aggressive bull market I've ever seen. I think a lot of people make decisions based on what they see/ read in the news, which is relatively negative agaist any administration that isn't Democrat. It's no skin off my back though because I'm making money.

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Fund Prices2024-04-17

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.19 0.01% 1.25%
F $18.68 0.50% -2.85%
C $78.62 -0.58% 5.72%
S $76.27 -0.89% -1.07%
I $40.66 -0.17% 1.19%
L2065 $15.60 -0.47% 3.17%
L2060 $15.60 -0.47% 3.18%
L2055 $15.60 -0.47% 3.18%
L2050 $31.39 -0.35% 2.57%
L2045 $14.34 -0.33% 2.47%
L2040 $52.43 -0.31% 2.41%
L2035 $13.87 -0.28% 2.31%
L2030 $46.25 -0.25% 2.24%
L2025 $12.93 -0.12% 1.78%
Linc $25.29 -0.09% 1.55%

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