(Thank the stars this is only 1/3 of my retirement portfolio)
We have all read the topics on curve fitting and using historical data to predict the future.
The flip side is that history usually repeats itself.
I think what the dailies/seasonals cant take into account are the blips that occur during an otherwise normal economic cycle. (Trump, Trade Wars, etc...)
Given enough data points, these "blips" can be averaged in, but since they most likely happen at different times of the year, it is hard to work them into the normal cycle.
This is where I am pissed off at myself. I think that I should have used dailies as another tool in my toolbox to analyze the market. Dailies along with the other things I normally look at (Stochastics, Clouds, Bollinger Bands, Certain candlesticks) should all be part of the input to my IFT......I think I will do that going forward and not blindly rely 100% on the strategy....
on a side note,....looking at my strategy, the only DD that was worse happened in Jan/Feb of 2009 (-9.41%). That year finished at 27.51% with a 30%+ run after the DD months...(here is hoping history repeats itself...)
Bama