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 Post subject: A New Seasonal Pattern?
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 pm 
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Joined: Nov 14, 2014
Posts: 177
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A couple of point outs.

First I posted some thoughts on the best TSP Fund now.

I also found a non-typical seasonal pattern this last year. I am sure there is some flow of funds that explains it that I will discover in the future but for now we just have a pattern to ponder.

Image

Stocks have peaked anywhere between 2 trading days and 5 trading days prior to the end of the month every 3 months. So if the pattern repeats the markets tail wind will turn to a strong head wind around 26-27 April. For small caps such as the Russell 2000 they have given up all their previous 30 day trading gains in about 8 - 12 trading days.

This is pattern does not fit with the typical pattern we see with our trading day TSP Almanacs, so I think it is a short-term pattern.

Anyway, something to watch for... or step out of the way.

Cheers,

_________________
Michael at
TSP Smart Investor Website
TSP Perspectives and Reports


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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)