"Safest" Daily

[nrialto]

Greetings everyone.

I hope I'm not beating a dead TSP horse here, but I'm looking for some opinions on a Daily Strategy that is considered "safe" in the long-run. I understand a strategy with few negative monthly returns isn't likely to have huge gains at year's end, but I'm thinking long-term.

I was hoping some folks could offer some strategies they like as "safe."

Thanks!

[Octjan2]

None of them are "safe". I was following 17842 because of its "safe" standard deviation of 2.38. That strategy is currently minus 8.14 with 1/3 of the year nearly completed.

[ArrieS]

G fund January 1'st to June 30'th.

Second verse, same as the first.

[nrialto]

I am using 17842 as well, which is what prompted me to inquire.

Based on it's previous returns (going back to 2004) I'm surprised to not only see that it's down a fair amount so far this year, but that it's also had 3 consecutive "down" months for the first time.

[robika]

As Octjan2 said, no strategy is really safe. However, the safest strategy I created last year was 24393. It is -1.69 for the year but it has only had 22 negative months out of the last 172. with an average of -1.75 for the negative months and 2.53 for the positive months. The standard deviation is still pretty decent even after this years roller coaster.

[Regularguy]

I suggest the L funds if your looking for set it and forget it. Most other strategies just try to be better than buy and hold.

[mjedlin66]

Take a good look at 0 F and 0 G strategies.

That means they are in equities 100% of the time.
It is kind of seasonal meets buy-and-hold.

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?years= ... x=0&Fmax=0

[mjedlin66]

Also there is a lot of new data to chew through in the background. I will release a snippet of it to cover May while I finish developing the tool for public use.

Bug me on Sunday.

[robika]

Also there is a lot of new data to chew through in the background. I will release a snippet of it to cover May while I finish developing the tool for public use.

Bug me on Sunday.

Ugh, it's only Tuesday... you drop something like this and expect us to wait until Sunday?

This is like something I would do to my impatient kids

[ravioli817]

37197: mean of 27.83 and stdDev of .4. this is up to 2017

but as others pointed out, safest doesn't mean you will never have a negative month. Stddev is just a measure of past precision around the mean, but it has its limits as predictive tool.

also, Mjeldin66, great minds think alike! I've been working on the 0% g funds and trying to find better ones.

[nrialto]

Thanks for the responses everyone.

Ravioli; love the screenname.