"Safest" Daily
Moderator: Aitrus
"Safest" Daily
Greetings everyone.
I hope I'm not beating a dead TSP horse here, but I'm looking for some opinions on a Daily Strategy that is considered "safe" in the long-run. I understand a strategy with few negative monthly returns isn't likely to have huge gains at year's end, but I'm thinking long-term.
I was hoping some folks could offer some strategies they like as "safe."
Thanks!
I hope I'm not beating a dead TSP horse here, but I'm looking for some opinions on a Daily Strategy that is considered "safe" in the long-run. I understand a strategy with few negative monthly returns isn't likely to have huge gains at year's end, but I'm thinking long-term.
I was hoping some folks could offer some strategies they like as "safe."
Thanks!
Re: "Safest" Daily
None of them are "safe". I was following 17842 because of its "safe" standard deviation of 2.38. That strategy is currently minus 8.14 with 1/3 of the year nearly completed.
Re: "Safest" Daily
G fund January 1'st to June 30'th.
Second verse, same as the first.
Second verse, same as the first.
Last edited by ArrieS on Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar
Re: "Safest" Daily
I am using 17842 as well, which is what prompted me to inquire.
Based on it's previous returns (going back to 2004) I'm surprised to not only see that it's down a fair amount so far this year, but that it's also had 3 consecutive "down" months for the first time.
Based on it's previous returns (going back to 2004) I'm surprised to not only see that it's down a fair amount so far this year, but that it's also had 3 consecutive "down" months for the first time.
Re: "Safest" Daily
As Octjan2 said, no strategy is really safe. However, the safest strategy I created last year was 24393. It is -1.69 for the year but it has only had 22 negative months out of the last 172. with an average of -1.75 for the negative months and 2.53 for the positive months. The standard deviation is still pretty decent even after this years roller coaster.
2019: Ignore everything that Mr. Imperfect says. Just roll the dice, will probably do better.
2020: Did Mr. Imperfect hack my fantasy account?
2021: My fantasy account got COVID.
2020: Did Mr. Imperfect hack my fantasy account?
2021: My fantasy account got COVID.
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Re: "Safest" Daily
I suggest the L funds if your looking for set it and forget it. Most other strategies just try to be better than buy and hold.
Re: "Safest" Daily
Take a good look at 0 F and 0 G strategies.
That means they are in equities 100% of the time.
It is kind of seasonal meets buy-and-hold.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?years= ... x=0&Fmax=0
That means they are in equities 100% of the time.
It is kind of seasonal meets buy-and-hold.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?years= ... x=0&Fmax=0
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"
Re: "Safest" Daily
Also there is a lot of new data to chew through in the background. I will release a snippet of it to cover May while I finish developing the tool for public use.
Bug me on Sunday.
Bug me on Sunday.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"
Re: "Safest" Daily
Ugh, it's only Tuesday... you drop something like this and expect us to wait until Sunday?mjedlin66 wrote:Also there is a lot of new data to chew through in the background. I will release a snippet of it to cover May while I finish developing the tool for public use.
Bug me on Sunday.
This is like something I would do to my impatient kids
2019: Ignore everything that Mr. Imperfect says. Just roll the dice, will probably do better.
2020: Did Mr. Imperfect hack my fantasy account?
2021: My fantasy account got COVID.
2020: Did Mr. Imperfect hack my fantasy account?
2021: My fantasy account got COVID.
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- Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:13 pm
Re: "Safest" Daily
37197: mean of 27.83 and stdDev of .4. this is up to 2017
but as others pointed out, safest doesn't mean you will never have a negative month. Stddev is just a measure of past precision around the mean, but it has its limits as predictive tool.
also, Mjeldin66, great minds think alike! I've been working on the 0% g funds and trying to find better ones.
but as others pointed out, safest doesn't mean you will never have a negative month. Stddev is just a measure of past precision around the mean, but it has its limits as predictive tool.
also, Mjeldin66, great minds think alike! I've been working on the 0% g funds and trying to find better ones.
Re: "Safest" Daily
Thanks for the responses everyone.
Ravioli; love the screenname.
Ravioli; love the screenname.
Fund Prices2024-04-16
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.24% |
F | $18.58 | -0.32% | -3.33% |
C | $79.08 | -0.21% | 6.34% |
S | $76.95 | -0.41% | -0.18% |
I | $40.73 | -0.98% | 1.37% |
L2065 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.66% |
L2060 | $15.67 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2055 | $15.68 | -0.50% | 3.67% |
L2050 | $31.50 | -0.44% | 2.93% |
L2045 | $14.38 | -0.41% | 2.81% |
L2040 | $52.59 | -0.38% | 2.72% |
L2035 | $13.91 | -0.35% | 2.60% |
L2030 | $46.37 | -0.32% | 2.50% |
L2025 | $12.95 | -0.18% | 1.90% |
Linc | $25.31 | -0.14% | 1.64% |