Some Experts Think This is as Good as It Gets

[Octjan2]

A "sideways" market indicates a pretty well established trading range. In a "trading range", there is a low (support) and a high (resistance) that stay pretty consistent. By making moves into stocks near the low of the range and selling near the high of the range, you can build positive returns over time. The risk is when that range is broken and you either buy at a point where the market breaks through support and drops further with you owning shares or you sell at a point where the market breaks through resistance and goes higher with you not owning shares.

But really, did you need all of that explained to you? Oh well...you asked so there it is.

Great. Now explain it with the trade limitation that we have with the TSP. Or, in your mind does the market respect and act accordingly to only two trades a month?

What you are describing is market timing. Just educated guesswork. Most people here follow plans like Seasonality.

So if their old Seasonality trading plan doesn't apply, what will they do? Change everything and start timing the market? But really, did you need all of that explained to you?

Yes, it is market timing and most likely will not beat the market. I just keep hoping that someday I will get lucky and be in the G fund when a black swan event takes place that decimates the market. The problem is that these events only come once a decade or so. I still use the seasonals as a guide, but after all my instincts said it was a bad idea to sit and watch the market rise 7% in January and to then buy in just to watch the market drop I learned a lesson. Never again sell for a loss.